Sweden battles USA in the Round of 16 Sunday. Kickoff from Melbourne Rectangular Stadium is set for 5 a.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Sweden vs. USA odds, and make our best Women’s World Cup bets, picks and predictions.
Sweden looked every bit of a team that could win the 2023 Women’s World Cup. It won all 3 group stage games, scoring 9 goals and allowing just 1. It beat South Africa 2-1, Italy 5-0 and Argentina 2-1. Sweden has a plethora of high-caliber players, but few in the tournament are more experienced than M Caroline Seger, who is the captain and has 200+ caps.
Sweden sits 3rd in the FIFA Women’s Rankings, only behind Germany (eliminated in group stage) and USA.
While the pre-tournament favorite, USA had a poor showing in the group stage and qualified with 1 more point than Portugal. It drew Portugal 0-0, drew Netherlands 1-1 and beat Vietnam 3-0. The concerning parts lie in how it has possessed. It had just 44% possession in its draws against Netherlands and Portugal—2 games it was significantly favored in.
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Sweden vs. USA odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:13 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Sweden +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | USA +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Draw +210
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +135 | U: -190)
Sweden vs. USA picks and predictions
Prediction
USA 1, Sweden 1 (Sweden advances in penalty kicks)
Moneyline (ML)
SPRINKLE DRAW (+210).
The USA is far better than it has played, and while I expect it to be sent home, the full-time battle should be a close one. USA had 2 group-stage draws, both of which it had more shots yet less possession.
Sweden dominated weaker opponents as it should have but it needed a 90th-minute goal to beat South Africa, the other team that qualified from Group G. Sweden has the experience and defensive aptitude to limit the United States, much like the Netherlands did.
Sweden had just 8 shots on frame against it throughout the first 3 matches. It also owned the majority of possession. These teams are as close as it gets, and for this value, back a full-time DRAW (+210).
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS. BET BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – YES (+105).
Both teams have scored in every game outside of USA’s 0-0 draw with Portugal. Even in that game, the USA had 6 shots on frame. I wouldn’t be confident in the teams combining for Over 2.5 goals, but each has strong midfield play and should be able to have ample opportunities in the final 3rd.
USA has had at least 4 shots on goal in each match and at least 10 shots in each. Sweden hasn’t faced a team in the top 10, so its 1 goal allowed through the 3 matches isn’t quite as notable. It should feel some pressure from an athletic USA front.
Sweden has averaged 3 goals per game and notched 3 on Norway in its final World Cup tune-up match in April as well. While many goals being scored may not be likely, expect both to get on the board.
Take BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE (+105).
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