Tag: Super Bowl Betting Picks

2020 Super Bowl Prop Bets: How many rushing yards for 49ers RB Raheem Mostert?

Analyzing 2020 Super Bowl prop bets centered around San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards.

Among the many prop bets available for those wishing to place a wager on Super Bowl LIV this Sunday are player props. How many yards will certain players gain? How many touchdowns? Will they score touchdowns?

Here we look at San Francisco 49ers RB Raheem Mostert and the number of rushing yards he will gain against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl.

Raheem Mostert’s 2020 Super Bowl rushing yards

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Yards Over Under
60.5 -182 +150
100.5 +370 -500

Mostert had a career-high 220 rushing yards in the NFC Championship against the Green Bay Packers. It was the second-highest single-game playoff rushing total in NFL history.

How will he follow it up in Super Bowl LIV?

Raheem Mostert’s history

Mostert has only two career games with more than 100 yards and plays in an offense that uses running backs by committee. His rushing output against the Packers was in large part because he had more opportunities as a result of Tevin Coleman dislocating his shoulder and the 49ers holding a large lead from start to finish.

Mostert gained fewer than 60 rushing yards in each of his previous two games.

Excluding the 29 carries he received against the Packers, he averaged 9.3 rushing attempts per game this season. He averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, so using the average, he would be on track for about 52 yards.

Also see:

The Chiefs’ run defense in recent weeks

Kansas City has allowed only 93.5 rushing yards per game over itslast eight contests. The Chiefs have allowed only three individual backs to exceed 60 yards in that time frame — Melvin Ingram, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry, all of whom are considered among the most talented feature backs in the league.

Mostert is not a feature back in the 49ers offense.

How will the game go?

Whether or not Mostert gets enough carries to get to 60.5 or 100.5 will depend on a couple of things — his effectiveness and whether the game is close.

The Chiefs can put up points in a hurry. If they build a lead of more than one score, it will be hard for the 49ers to keep running the ball. If the game is close throughout, Mostert can do it. Coleman might play but won’t be 100%. Mostert will get most of the carries, while Coleman and Matt Breida will be complementary pieces.

Our best bet

Special sports betting line for the big game

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The easy bet is to go UNDER 100.5 yards at -500, but it won’t win enough money to be worth the while. A $10 bet will gain only $2 in profit. Mostert’s history and the Chiefs’ play suggest he will not get over 100.

Less certain is whether to go Over or Under the 60.5 yards.

It will come down to this: If you believe the Chiefs will mostly be in control of the game and the 49ers will have to play catchup, take the UNDER 60.5 (+150), which gives you the best value. Every $10 wagered wins $15. This is where I would place my wager.

If you believe the game will be highly competitive and neither team will pull away, take the Over 60.5 (-182). Every $10 wagered will earn a profit $5.49.

If you believe the 49ers will control the game like they did against the Packers in the NFC title game, go big and bet Over 100.5 (+370) and go for a huge payout of $37 for every $10 wagered.

Want action on this game or prop bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV prop bet: Who will win MVP of Super Bowl LIV?

Forecasting the odds on who will win Super Bowl LIV MVP, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.

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The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will square off on Sunday night in Super Bowl LIV. It’s a game that’s chock full of prop bets for viewers to wager on. One of the more common prop bets is the winner of Super Bowl MVP, which can be difficult to predict.

Just like the regular-season MVP award, it’s a quarterback-favored honor. However, there have been more than a few instances where a non-quarterback has won it.

Special sports betting line for the big game

Bet $1, WIN $200 (in free bets) if either team scores a touchdown during the big game February 2, 2020. Regardless of the outcome, you win with a touchdown! Bet now.

New customer offer; visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.

Will this year be one of those cases? First, let’s look at the odds and who’s favored to win it.

  • Patrick Mahomes +110
  • Jimmy Garoppolo +250
  • Raheem Mostert +750
  • George Kittle +1400
  • Travis Kelce +1400
  • Tyreek Hill +1600
  • Damien Williams +1600
  • Nick Bosa +2000
  • Deebo Samuel +2500
  • Emmanuel Sanders +3300
  • Sammy Watkins +3300
  • Tevin Coleman +5000
  • Frank Clark +8000
  • Mecole Hardman +8000
  • Richard Sherman +8000
  • Chris Jones +8000
  • Arik Armstead +10000
  • Tyrann Mathieu +10000
  • DeForest Buckner +10000
  • Dante Pettis +10000
  • Kendrick Bourne +10000
  • Matt Breida +10000

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win the award. He has carried the Chiefs offense that ranked fifth in passing and 23rd in rushing, throwing for 26 touchdowns and five interceptions with 4,031 yards in only 14 games.

But when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl MVP, you first have to start with who you believe will win the game. Only one player in the history of the game has won Super Bowl MVP on the losing team (Chuck Howley, Super Bowl V).

So if you feel strongly about the Chiefs knocking off the 49ers on Sunday, Mahomes is a good bet. He’s going to get a ton of opportunities to throw the ball, attempting at least 25 passes in every game he started and finished this season; he averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game in 2019.

Mahomes is most likely going to score at least one touchdown, too. There have only been three games in his career where he didn’t throw at least one touchdown pass, and in one of those games, he scored a rushing touchdown.

The problem with betting Mahomes is that he’s only +110 to win it. That doesn’t provide much upside, because you’ll have to bet $10 just to win $11.

The quarterback on the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo, provides much greater value at +250. But he has only thrown 27 passes in the 49ers’ two wins this postseason with one touchdown and 208 yards. There have been eight games this season where he threw for 200 yards or less.

And as much as quarterbacks are favored for Super Bowl MVP, a non-QB has won it in three of the last six years – most recently with Julian Edelman taking home the award last year. If you’re going to bet on Garoppolo to win, I wouldn’t wager much because there’s a chance the 49ers will run the ball 30 times and only attempt 15 or so passes.

Instead, I’d rather go with someone like Raheem Mostert, who’s +750 to win MVP. He became the favorite option in the 49ers’ crowded backfield after Tevin Coleman injured his shoulder in the NFC Championship Game. Coleman would’ve been listed as questionable if the game were played yesterday, and it’s unclear what his status will be for the Super Bowl.

Watch Coleman’s status closely as the week progresses, because if he’s available, Mostert’s odds decrease – which will be reflected in the betting line.

Other good values for Super Bowl MVP include Nick Bosa (+2000) because of his pass-rushing ability against a team that throws the ball often, Coleman (+5000) if he’s healthy and plays, and even Richard Sherman (+8000) because of how often Mahomes is going to throw the ball. If Sherman has an interception or two, or a pick-six in a low-scoring game, he could win it.

A real long shot who might be worth putting a small wager on is Chiefs receiver/return specialist Mecole Hardman (+8000) because of his ability to make an impact as a returner. If he takes a kickoff or punt back for a touchdown and there aren’t many other scores, he could sneak in and win the award.

It’s not worth betting on a Chiefs defender because unless he forces a fumble on a running back, there isn’t a great chance of one making enough impact plays against the 49ers’ run-first offense.

Follow @camdasilva and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Super Bowl LIV: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and best bets

Previewing the Super Bowl LIV matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, with NFL betting odds, picks and best bets.

The matchup is set for Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, as the San Francisco 49ers (15-3) will do battle with the Kansas City Chiefs (14-4) for the Lombardi Trophy. The big game takes place Sunday, Feb. 2, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the 49ers-Chiefs odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on the Super Bowl LIV matchup.

49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV preview, betting trends and notes

  • Both teams have cruised through the playoffs. The 49ers beat the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 in the Divisional Round before taking down the Green Bay Packers 37-20 in the NFC Championship. The Chiefs beat the Houston Texans 51-31 and Tennessee Titans 35-24 in the second and third rounds, respectively.
  • The Chiefs are riding a seven-game winning streak dating back to Week 11. The Niners have won four straight games.
  • Kansas City played one neutral site game this season, beating the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 in Mexico City in Week 11.
  • Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo threw for a season-low 77 yards while completing six of just eight pass attempts against the Packers in the NFC Championship. The 49ers didn’t need more out of him, as RB Raheem Mostert rushed 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns.

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  • Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes played the hero in the AFC Championship to get Kansas City to its first Super Bowl since 1969 (SB IV). The 2018 MVP completed 23 of 35 pass attempts for 294 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for a team-high 53 yards and another score.
  • San Francisco’s last Super Bowl appearance was Super Bowl XLVII, which it lost 34-31 to the Baltimore Ravens. The Niners last Super Bowl win was Super Bowl XXIX. They beat the San Diego Chargers 49-26, with QB Steve Young being named MVP.
  • The two teams last met in Week 3 of the 2018 season. The Chiefs won 38-27. Garoppolo passed for 251 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Mahomes went 314-3-0.
  • The Niners ranked second in the NFL with 29.9 points per game in the regular season. The Chiefs were fifth with 28.2 PPG.
  • The Chiefs (19.3) and 49ers (19.4) ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in points per game allowed.

49ers vs. Chiefs: Super Bowl LIV odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday, Jan. 20, at 8:20 a.m. ET.

Prediction

49ers 32, Chiefs 29

Moneyline (?)

The Chiefs (-118) are favorites for a sixth consecutive game as the official home team in Super Bowl LIV. The 49ERS (+100) are even-money as slight dogs, despite their two 17-point wins in the playoffs. Both teams were 3-1 straight up against cross-conference opponents this season. San Francisco won those games by an average of 13.2 points per game, while Kansas City won by 5.8 PPG against four NFC opponents.

I like the Niners as the slight underdogs. While the Chiefs were able to contain the NFL’s leading rusher in Titans RB Derrick Henry (69 yards, one TD) in the AFC Championship, the 49ers have a multi-headed attack with Mostert, Tevin Coleman (shoulder) and Matt Breida. San Francisco also led the NFL with just 169.2 passing yards allowed per game in the regular season and will force the Chiefs to turn to their little-used rushing game.

Back the underdog in Super Bowl LIV.

Against the Spread (?)

The NINERS (+1.5, -111) offer less value on the spread while being spotted just 1.5 points. The moneyline is the more profitable play with a $10 bet returning $10 in profit, while the same wager here fetches a return of just $9. If you need the extra insurance in case of a 1-point Chiefs’ win, back San Francisco on the spread as a safer play.

San Francisco was 3-1 against the spread in games against AFC opponents this year. Kansas City was just 2-2 ATS in those games. The two-week layoff favors a Chiefs side that went 6-4-1 ATS against teams with equal rest this year, while the Niners were a league-worst 2-5 ATS when playing on equal rest, but the 49ers were 5-0 ATS as underdogs this season.

Over/Under (?)

Those who didn’t enjoy Super Bowl LIII and the 13-3 win for the New England Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams should get their redemption this year. Back the OVER 52.5 (-118) with both teams happy to try their luck in a shootout. The two teams have scored at least 26 points in each of their last four games.

Both teams have hit the Under just eight times through 18 games. KC has topped the projected totals in each of its two playoff games. San Francisco went 1-1.

Want action on this game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Esten’s 2019 NFL betting record: 58-51

Follow @EstenMcLaren and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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