The Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) host the Buffalo Bills (3-1) for Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Bills vs. Chiefs odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The Bills have stampeded their last three opponents in the Houston Texans (40-0 in Week 4), Washington Football Team (43-21 in Week 3) and Miami Dolphins (35-0 in Week 2).
K.C. cruised past the Philadelphia Eagles 42-30 last week as a 7.5-point road favorite after back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles Chargers (30-24) and Baltimore Ravens (36-35).
The Chiefs beat the Bills twice last season: 26-17 in Week 6 as 5.5-point road favorites and 38-24 at home in the AFC Championship Game, covering as 3-point favorites.
Bills at Chiefs odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Bills +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Chiefs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills +2.5 (-105) | Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Bills at Chiefs key injuries
Bills
- LB Matt Milano (hamstring) questionable
- RB Taiwan Jones (hamstring) questionable
- DE A.J. Epenesa (foot) questionable
Chiefs
- DT Chris Jones (wrist) questionable
- CB Charvarius Ward (quadriceps) questionable
- LB Willie Gay (toe) questionable
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Bills at Chiefs odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Chiefs 34, Bills 30
Money line
“LEAN” to the CHIEFS (-140) only because I could listen to laying the points instead, but K.C. is the right side.
By betting on the Chiefs we are backing one of the best quarterbacks and coaching staffs in the game as well as fading the public. According to Pregame.com, roughly 70% of the action was on Buffalo at the time of writing, which is making K.C. cheaper. There are a few reasons to fade the Bills as well.
First of all, Buffalo hasn’t faced a quality opponent. The Bills have played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far while the Chiefs have played the third-toughest schedule. K.C. has underperformed its lofty expectations but losing at the Ravens on primetime and against a tough divisional opponent like the Chargers isn’t embarrassing.
Also, the possible absence of Milano is a major problem for the Bills. Milano is the highest graded linebacker by Pro Football Focus and its third-highest graded linebacker in pass coverage. If Milano is sidelined or compromised then TE Travis Kelce could tear this Buffalo defense apart.
The Bills have the best DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, because of their defense. But, they’ve played three of the worst offenses in the league. Offenses quarterbacked by Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills.
Against the spread
“LEAN” to the CHIEFS -2.5 (-115) based on the aforementioned analysis and because K.C.’s money line isn’t much more expensive.
Over/Under
PASS on the total because I could see both offenses trying to play keep away and eat the clock. K.C. should hide its terrible defense and Buffalo probably doesn’t want to get into a shootout with the Chiefs.
Furthermore, nearly 90% of the handle is on the Over but this total hasn’t moved much from the opener. It’s not very profitable following the crowd in sports betting.
That said, for me, it’s a little too “sharp” to back the Under. PASS.
Week 5 best bets
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