The Baylor Bears (3-0) host the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (3-0) at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, Wednesday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we analyze the Stephen F. Austin-Baylor college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Bears are No. 2 in the USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Poll.
Stephen F. Austin at Baylor: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: No money line was listed at the time of publishing.
- Against the spread/ATS: Stephen F. Austin +23.5 (-110) | Baylor -23.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 147 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Stephen F. Austin at Baylor: Three things to know
- SFA ripped right through NAIA division LSU–Alexandria 97-79 on Dec. 6. There was no line for the Lumberjacks to cover, and they sit at 1-0 ATS this season, as it was the second Stephen F. Austin game this season not to have a spread.
- Baylor administered a double-digit beatdown of Illinois in last week’s Jimmy V Class in Indianapolis and covered as 4.5-point favorites. The Bears’ 82-69 win over the Fighting Illini pushed their ATS record to 3-0 on the season.
- The Lumberjacks are replacing Baylor’s previously scheduled opponent—Nicholls—because the game was canceled due to a positive COVID-19 test in the Colonels’ program.
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Stephen F. Austin at Baylor: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 87, Stephen F. Austin 55
Money line (ML)
No money line was available at the time of publishing. It wouldn’t be worth pursuing, anyway, due to the large spread.
Against the spread (ATS)
It’s a real struggle to make a pro-Stephen F. Austin case. The Lumberjacks have the 300th-toughest schedule out of 300 charted teams according to Sportsreference.com, so, there’s nothing to glean from their results.
Naturally, my instincts tell me to take plus-23.5 points but Stephen F. Austin’s defense has been atrocious against literally the easiest competition in the nation. The Lumberjacks are ranked 291st in opponents’ effective field-goal percentage and 293rd in opponents’ free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt.
Also, Stephen F. Austin thrives on points inside the arc and Baylor has one of the highest defensive efficiencies in the country. If the Lumberjacks can’t stretch the defense, I don’t see how they have success on offense.
GIMME BAYLOR -23.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
My read is Baylor truck-sticks Stephen F. Austin early and then naturally take its foot off the gas in the second half. Stephen F. Austin’s offense ranks really well but, again, who have they played?
Furthermore, this is a Pros vs. Joes matchup on the total: 85% of the cash bet is on the Under and 57% of the bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com. The heavy action on the Over has moved the total down from the 153.5-point opener.
The sharp money is on the Under so let’s TAKE UNDER 147 (-110) for 1 unit and hope we are not arriving too late to the party.
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