Tag: Standings

NFC Playoff Picture: How the Saints can win the first seed, homefield advantage

The San Francisco 49ers lost to the Atlanta Falcons, opening the door for the New Orleans Saints to win home-field advantage in the playoffs

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The San Francisco 49ers held the first seed for just a week before they choked, somehow losing to the Atlanta Falcons only a week after they beat the New Orleans Saints. That big mistake cost them in the NFC playoff seedings, dropping them from the first seed to the fifth.

It also opens the door a little wider for the Saints to march back to the top of the standings. Right now, the Saints are the third seed. They’re in a race for a top two seed with the 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers, though the Saints are guaranteed to finish no worse than third.

So how can the Saints get that coveted first seed? Even if they win all three of their remaining games, they’ll need some help to get it.

Let’s run through it one team at a time. The Packers have two games left on their schedule, and have to lose one of them for the Saints to overtake them. They’re visiting the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions in the final two weeks, and could very well lose that Vikings game considering how well Minnesota has been playing lately.

Next up, the 49ers: they need to win both of their remaining game to stick around in the race for a top-two seed. If they lose another game, they’re guaranteed to remain a wild-card team. Their season-finale is against the Seahawks in Seattle, so that game carries all kinds of implications — unless they lose next week to the Los Angeles Rams at home, in which case it doesn’t matter at all as far as the Saints are concerned. New Orleans owns a head-to-head tiebreaker over Seattle.

And that brings us full-circle. The Seahawks play at home in each of the final two weeks, hosting the Arizona Cardinals and the 49ers. The Saints need Seattle to win both of those home games to ensure the playoffs run through New Orleans.

So, to sum it up: if the Saints are going to earn homefield advantage in the playoffs, they have to win all three of their remaining games. They also need the Packers to lose one of their two remaining games, while the Seahawks win both of their final two games (including the regular season finale against the 49ers). That’s easier said than done, but it’s very much a realistic scenario.

Now, it’s on the Saints and their fans to do what they’ve always done: put everything into winning the games left on their schedule.

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Of course it’s helpful, but do the Saints need home-field advantage in the playoffs?

The New Orleans Saints have posted a higher win percentage on the road than in the Superdome, which may prepare them well for the playoffs

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The New Orleans Saints took a big hit in the playoff standings in their Week 14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, losing their grip on the first seed in the NFC playoff standings. They fell to third, and can’t fall further thanks to the NFC East’s collective mediocrity. If they win out, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles can each post records as strong as 9-7. The Saints will finish the year at 10-6 at worst, but they’ll be better than that.

It would take a lot of help for the Saints to rise back to the first seed, but the second seed is attainable. Both of the two top seeds guarantee a bye during the Wild Card Round, allowing lesser teams to duke it out in hopes of advancing, But only the first seed carries home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, ensuring that the team that holds it won’t have to travel for any games before Super Bowl LIV.

Obviously it would help the Saints to hold that advantage. Some dusty narratives suggest the Saints need it, and won’t reach the Super Bowl if they have to play away from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome; here are some numbers that disprove that notion.

The Saints are a better road team than home team in 2019. They’ve gone 5-1 on the road and 5-2 at home, winning their road games by an average difference of 9.8 points; at home, that point differential drops to 7.2 points per game. To put it another way, the average Saints victory at home this season has ended with a score of 27.6 to 20.4.

But on the road, the Saints are winning games with an average score of 28.4 to 18.6. Drew Brees and the Saints offense are blocking out the crowd noise, while Demario Davis and the New Orleans defense are benefiting from the relative quiet when their opponents have the ball.

This trend continues in recent history. The Saints were 7-1 on the road in 2018 but 7-3 at home, including the playoffs. You have to go all the way back to the 2017 season to find an appreciable difference, when the Saints went 8-1 at home but 4-5 on the road. And three of those losses were settled by six points or fewer, illustrating how the Saints remained competitive in hostile environments even then.

To sum it up, here are the Saints’ home and road splits over the last two years, a stretch of 31 games (including the playoffs):

  • Saints at home, 2018 to 2019: 12-5 (.705), average score of 29.9 to 24.8. Per-game scoring differential of 5.2.
  • Saints on the road, 2018 to 2019: 12-2 (.857), average score of 27.3 to 19.1. Per-game scoring differential of 8.1.

So the Saints not only have a stronger winning percentage on the road, they’re doing a better job of limiting opposing offenses while still putting up points at a rate that would rank top-five around the league. There’s no question that the Saints would prefer to host every playoff game they’re scheduled for, but it’s hardly a death sentence if they have to travel at some point. Saints coach Sean Payton and his staff are clearly up to embracing the challenge of playing — and winning — in a hostile venue; Saints fans should take the same approach.

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Saints win 34-31, push past Panthers on last-second Wil Lutz field goal

The New Orleans Saints let the Carolina Panthers play too close for comfort, but were able to trust kicker Wil Lutz to win in the end.

The New Orleans Saints won a nail-biter over the Carolina Panthers, with kicker Wil Lutz pushing a 33-yard field goal through the uprights as time expired. It followed a successful drive downfield that began when Panthers kicker Joey Slye missed his own would-be game-winner from 28 yards out.

It would be nice if the final score of 34-31 didn’t indicate how closely the Saints played this game, but that’s not the case. New Orleans backed themselves into a corner with 12 penalties, giving up 123 yards of field positioning. The Panthers took advantage of many of those opportunities, though inconsistent kicking from Slye (who went 1-for-3 on extra point tries, and 2-for-3 on field goal attempts) ended up costing them.

Good news for the Saints surrounds the increased involvement of tight end Jared Cook, who caught 6 of 8 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown score. Cook consistently made plays after the catch and down the seam, giving the Saints a viable option downfield opposite Michael Thomas (who turned in a typical 10-for-11, 110-yard showing).

It’s been a quiet few weeks for second-year defensive end Marcus Davenport, but something has to be said for his performance in clutch time. Davenport set up Carolina’s botched final field goal with a huge sack on third down and followed it up by leaping over the Panthers’ blockers, spooking Slye into an off-target chip shot. He made big plays in the game’s biggest moments.

So New Orleans improved to 9-2 on the year so far, while Carolina fell to 5-6. All eyes now are on the Sunday Night Football matchup between the projected top two playoff seeds: the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers and 8-2 Green Bay Packers. If the 49ers win, the Saints will have a shot at controlling their own destiny when San Francisco visits on Dec. 8. If the Packers win, New Orleans has to hope Green Bay drops a loss down the stretch, or the NFC’s top playoff seed could be out of reach.

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Updated Week 12 Saints-Panthers injury report

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers published their updated injury reports ahead of their Week 12 game, but it didn’t clarify much.

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The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers published their second injury report ahead of their Week 12 clash, the result of which could put the Saints one game away from their third straight NFC South title (with a little help from the Panthers’ next opponent). Here’s a refresher on the division standings:

  1. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
  2. Carolina Panthers (5-5)
  3. Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-7)

As for the Saints injury report: cornerback Marshon Lattimore and wide receiver Deonte Harris are both battling hamstring injuries, and did not participate in Wednesday’s walkthrough. That does not bode well for their status to play on Sunday. Tight end Josh Hill’s status will be worth following throughout the remainder of the week. Hill’s concussion was described as ‘mild’ and the tight end was limited in Wednesday’s practice.

The injury reports published by the Saints and the Panthers on Thursday is the second report for the week. A second, updated report will be released on Thursday. The final injury report with game status for certain players will be issued on Friday. Daily changes in practice participation are noted in bold text.

From the Saints

  • OL Andrus Peat (forearm), Did not participate
  • CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring), Did not participate
  • WR Deonte Harris (hamstring), Did not participate
  • FB Zach Line (knee), Did not participate
  • TE Josh Hill (concussion), Limited
  • OL Larry Warford (thigh), Full
  • WR Austin Carr (ankle), Limited
  • OL Ryan Ramczyk (knee), Full

From the Panthers

  • CB Ross Cockrell (quad), Did not participate
  • DT Gerald McCoy (knee), Limited
  • OL Dennis Daley (groin), Limited
  • S Eric Reid (knee), Limited
  • LB Shaq Thompson (ankle), Limited
  • LB Brian Burns (wrist), Full
  • OL Greg Little (knee), Full

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49ers stay atop NFC West, Seahawks after win over Cardinals

The San Francisco 49ers remain at the top of the NFC West and ahead of the
Seattle Seahawks, after beating the Arizona Cardinals Week 11.

Despite having a bye week, the Seattle Seahawks had a chance to take the lead in the NFC West on Sunday with a little help from the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals traveled to Santa Clara Week 11 to face the 49ers for their second time this season. Arizona lost to San Francisco in the desert Halloween night and hoped to even the score in the rematch.

A win would have put the Seahawks atop the division.

The Cardinals came out swinging Sunday afternoon and took an early 16-0 lead over the 49ers before San Francisco was able to put points on the board in the second quarter.

The 49ers, however, would emerge victorious after D.J. Reed’s fumble recovery and return for a touchdown sealed the deal on the final play of the game.

San Franciso beat the Cardinals 36-26 and remains the leader in the NFC West.

The Seahawks (8-2) remain in spitting distance of the 49ers (9-1), especially after their 27-24 win on “Monday Night Football.”

Seattle has one of the toughest second-half schedules in the league and is now set to square off against the Eagles in Week 12.

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Second-half Saints schedule sets up for a strong playoff push

The New Orleans Saints strength of schedule is mediocre. The Green Bay Packers have it easy but the San Francisco 49ers are in for a shock.

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The second half of the NFL regular season is upon us, and it couldn’t have started worse for the New Orleans Saints. They air-balled what should have been an easy win over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday, losing their grip on the second playoff seed in the NFC as the Green Bay Packers beat the Carolina Panthers and the top-ranked San Francisco 49ers suffered their first setback of the year to the Seattle Seahawks.

But Saints fans should feel optimistic about their fortunes moving forward, and their team’s chance to recover. New Orleans has just four games against opponents with winning records, including the 49ers (8-1), Panthers twice (5-4), and Indianapolis Colts (5-4), as well as the middling Tennessee Titans (5-5). There’s plenty of time for correction and improvement ahead of them.

According to NFL Research, the Saints’ second half schedule ranks near the middle of the pack, with their remaining opponents sharing a combined record of 33-31-0 (.516). Here’s how they rank among their peers:

Compare that to what other NFC playoff contenders are facing. The San Francisco 49ers are set to play the second-toughest schedule down the stretch, with their future opponents having gone 40-25-1 (.614); their odds of holding onto the top playoff seed in the conference are slim. However, the Green Bay Packers are in good position to maintain their one-game lead on the Saints in playoff seeding, with a relatively weak strength of schedule of 25-30-1 (.455) ahead of them. That’s the ninth-easiest second half schedule in the NFL.

As for the two-team race in the NFC South: the Carolina Panthers are still a few games behind the Saints, but their remaining strength of schedule at 32-32 (.500) is slightly easier to navigate than what New Orleans will see. If Carolina handles its business and the Saints continue to play down to their competition, it’s not impossible to see a path for the Panthers to steal a divisional title in the season’s final weeks. If New Orleans plays like they did last Sunday, they could be in for a rude awakening no matter how favorable their schedule looks on paper.

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NFC Playoff Picture: Where do the Saints stand after Week 10?

The New Orleans Saints may have lost their Week 10 game with the Atlanta Falcons, but the NFC playoff picture is far from locked in place.

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Week 10 delivered plenty of surprises to the NFL, painting the playoff picture in sweeping, sometimes-erratic strokes. It brought big changes for some Super Bowl contenders and a painful reality check for other playoff hopefuls, the New Orleans Saints among them. The Saints may have fallen flat against the Atlanta Falcons, but they weren’t the only favorite to get upset this week. Let’s run through the games that impacted this week’s standings.

Green Bay Packers 24, Carolina Panthers 16

What a game for the Packers, who were able to run often and effectively on what’s been a mostly-strong Panthers defense. Their two-headed attack of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined for 156 rushing yards in a game that saw snow pile up as the afternoon drew on. Green Bay’s defense showed up with several sacks and frequently pressured newly-minted starting Panthers quarterback Kyle Allen, who put up a fight but wasn’t able to clinch a tough win on the road. Christian McCaffrey was effective as ever but ultimately came up short at the goal-line on the game’s final play.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Los Angeles Rams 12

The Rams hoped to rally down the stretch after the Jalen Ramsey trade, but his arrival didn’t give them enough juice to defeat the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers. Quarterback Jared Goff has continued to nosedive since signing his huge contract extension in preseason, and the Rams’ season may be sinking too fast for the rest of the team to pull him back up to competence. They’re a distant third-best in the NFC West at 5-4, but theoretically have enough time to bounce back.

Minnesota Vikings 28, Dallas Cowboys 24

This game was all about Dalvin Cook: he picked up 97 rushing yards and 86 receiving yards, giving the Cowboys defense fits throughout their Sunday Night Football matchup. His efforts were instrumental to keeping pressure off mistake-prone quarterback Kirk Cousins and finding a way to win, though Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott threw for nearly 400 yards in a game that was competitive down to the wire. The NFC East race is as cloudy as ever, which is good news for the Saints, who currently sit above them all in projected playoff seeding.

Seattle Seahawks 27, San Francisco 49ers 24 (OT)

A contender for the game of the year saw the 49ers receive their first loss this season, even if Seattle did its best to lose. Their best defenders (linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright) each dropped game-winning interceptions late on Monday Night Football, and the Seahawks coaching staff took the ball out of their franchise quarterback’s hands with multiple run-run-pass-punt sequences down the stretch. Still, Russell Wilson found a way to put his team in position to win, even if coach Pete Carroll made an insanely cowardly decision to punt from his own 45-yard line late in overtime. Neither of these teams should feel good about their chances of playing the Saints in the postseason.

Here’s what the projected NFC playoff picture looks like after Week 10:

NFC standings

  1. West: 49ers (8-1)
  2. North: Packers (8-2)
  3. South: Saints (7-2)
  4. East: Cowboys (5-4)
  5. Wild card: Seahawks (8-2)
  6. Wild card: Vikings (7-3)

In the hunt

  • Rams (5-4)
  • Eagles (5-4)
  • Panthers (5-4)
  • Bears (4-5)

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