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The St. Louis Cardinals (27-29) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (41-18) on Sunday Night Baseball in the finale of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 4-1
The Cards were 12-3 over their last 15 games to reach .500 for the 1st time since April 16 before entering this series. They have dropped both games by 4-2 and 6-1 finals. Saturday, their ace Sonny Gray, gave up 3 ER in the 1st, and it kind of took the wind out of their sails. They wound up scoring 1 run, on a sac fly, and mustered just 5 hits despite the Phils losing their league-leading starting pitcher after 2 innings.
Phillies 1B Bryce Harper went 2-for-3 and hit his 14th homer of the season. The Phillies are now 9-2 against St. Louis over the last 2 seasons, and they have the best record in baseball. They have the 2nd-best ERA at 3.02, 4th-best BA at .257 and score the most runs at 5.2 per game. They were also generous enough to cash us a +190 parlay in Friday’s affair.
Cardinals at Phillies projected starters
RHP Lance Lynn vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Lynn (2-3, 3.45 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER (3 R), 3 BB, 5 K Monday against Cincinnati Reds
- Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 2-1, 3.07 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29 K in 29 1/3 IP
Walker (3-1, 5.51 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 32 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 4 K Monday against San Francisco Giants
- Last 5 starts vs. Cardinals: 1-1, 3.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 28 K in 30 2/3 IP
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Cardinals at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-165) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Cardinals at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 6, Phillies 5
Moneyline
Lynn led baseball with 44 homers allowed last year, but he has allowed just 7 thus far. Citizens Bank is typically a hitters’ haven, but he has been great in 2 career starts there. Over 12 IP, he has allowed 4 ER (3.00 ERA) on 5 H, 4 BB and has fanned 10. He didn’t factor into the decision in his start against the Phils at Busch April 10. He allowed 2 unearned runs on 1 H and 4 BB while fanning 6 in 5 IP.
Lynn helps salvage a game in the series, and Walker has allowed 8 ER in his last 2 GS. So expect runs in bunches when you take the CARDINALS +120.
Run line/Against the spread
There is 1 prop that sticks out. The books don’t expect Lynn to go very deep into this one, but he has gone 6 IP in his last 2 starts. I also illustrated his good performances in this park as well.
I’ll take LANCE LYNN OVER 15.5 TOTAL OUTS (-110).
Over/Under
The wind is slated to be blowing out to right-center upon first pitch. We also have a couple of homer-friendly starters and a couple offenses that can cash an Over 9 with a quickness. Both teams are 3-6-1 O/U in their last 10, and the total has gone Under and pushed in the first 2.
We’re bucking that trend Sunday night and going OVER 9 (-120).
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