Tag: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds odds predictions pick betting line spread

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (7-4) and Cincinnati Reds (2-11) open a three-game NL Central set Friday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cincinnati took 10 of 19 games in 2021.

St. Louis lost 5-0 at the Miami Marlins Thursday, but the Cardinals are 4-2 over their last six games and have not yet lost back-to-back games this season.

The Reds have struggled mightily thus far, averaging 2.85 runs per game while yielding 5.69. Cincy enters this series on a nine-game losing skid in which eight of its losses have been by 3 runs or more.

Cardinals at Reds: Projected starters

LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Matz (1-1, 7.27 ERA) makes his third start of the season. He has allowed 7 ER on 12 H and 1 BB with 11 K through 8 2/3 IP.

  • Logged a 3.82 ERA in 150 2/3 IP last year.
  • Was lit up for 7 ER across 3 IP in his season debut but held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless across 5 2/3 IP Saturday in his second outing.

Greene (1-1, 4.35 ERA) makes his third start. He has given up 5 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 13 K through 10 1/3 IP.

  • Former No. 2 draft selection overall made his Major League debut April 10.
  • Logged a 3.30 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 106 1/3 IP across Double-A and Triple-A in 2021.

Cardinals at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:26 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+133) | Reds +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Reds 3

Money line

The Reds — entering off an off day and with a bullpen reset and having some positive regression in their overall numbers — are the lean, but the price is not attractive. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

Thus far, the Reds have been undone by 2s and 3s in the wrong places. Cincinnati batters are working around a .232 batting average on balls in play, while Cincy pitchers have toiled through a BABIP of .323.

Consider a line watch or a partial-unit play on CINCINNATI +1.5 (-165). Successful baseball betting is not betting on wins and losses, it’s betting on pricing. A real value trigger here would be Cincy +1.5 (-145).

Over/Under

The low side here has a slight lean. On a night with a pitcher’s breeze in the forecast, BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-122). Consider a partial-unit wagering amount.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (49-50) play the Cincinnati Reds (51-47) Sunday in their three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincy is looking for the series sweep after beating St. Louis in the first two games by a combined score of 11-8.

Season series: Reds lead 8-4.

RHP Johan Oviedo takes the mound for the Cardinals. Oviedo is 0-5 with a 4.81 ERA (58 IP, 31 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 over 12 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 loss to the Chicago Cubs Tuesday.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-3 with a 5.92 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.97 WHIP and 0.7 K/BB rate in six starts.

RHP Sonny Gray makes his 14th start for the Reds. Gray is 2-5 with a 3.65 ERA (66 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 8-0, with 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 6 K vs. the Milwaukee Brewers July 18.
  • Gray took a loss earlier this season against St. Louis (April 23) with 3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K in Cincy’s 5-4 defeat.
    • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 3.01 FIP with a .219 batting average, .286 wOBA, .505 expected slugging percentage, 27.0 K% and 88.5 mph exit velocity in 74 plate appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Reds -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-125) | Reds -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Reds 9, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the REDS (-185) because there has been “sharp” line movement towards Cincy as BetMGM opened this game up with the Reds favored -175 before they were steamed up to the current price.

The Reds have won four straight against the Cardinals at home this season by a combined score of 32-15 and Oviedo has pitched poorly on the road this year.

However, I’d risk just 1 unit on Cincy’s money line. If your standard wager is $100, BET $100 on REDS (-185) to hopefully earn a profit of $54.05.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

I prefer TAKING the REDS -1.5 (+105) more than their money line because of the plus-money payout and the Reds have won by two or more runs in four of their current six-game winning streak vs. the Cardinals.

The odds are in our favor in this spot because Cincy has a 53.5% cover rate vs. divisional foes this season (23-20 ATS), St. Louis’ cover rate is 43.6% against NL Central competition (17-22 ATS) and the implied win probability of Cincy’s run line price is 48.8%.

Essentially, we need to win the REDS -1.5 (+105) wager just half the time to net a profit and Cincy is covering against NL Central teams more than half the time.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-115) for a half unit because both starters are middle to bottom of the rotation guys and neither bullpen grades well in advanced pitching metrics.

In addition, the Over is 4-0-1 in the last five Cardinals-Reds meetings in Cincy and Gray has given up 11 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work over his past two starts vs. St. Louis (one earlier this season and the other in 2020).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (50-47) host the St. Louis Cardinals (49-49) Saturday at Great American Ball Park for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati beat St. Louis 6-5 Friday as the Reds rallied to score 3 runs in the seventh and eighth innings.

Season series: Reds lead 7-4.

RHP Jake Woodford is on the hill for the Cardinals. He is 2-1 with a 4.06 ERA (31 IP, 14 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 across one start and 17 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 8-3, with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 6 K against the Chicago Cubs Monday.
  • Woodford has worked out of the bullpen twice this season against Cincy and is 0-0 with a 2 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 4 K over 4 IP.

RHP Luis Castillo is Cincinnati’s projected starter. He is 3-10 with a 4.39 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 20 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 8 K in Cincinnati’s 7-4 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday.
  • Castillo is 1-2 against St. Louis this season with an 8.16 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 17 H, 4 BB and 8 K in three starts.
    • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (201 PA): 5.65 FIP with a .257 batting average, .345 wOBA, .457 expected slugging percentage, 22.9 K% and 85.9 mph exit velocity.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Reds -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-120) | Reds -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Reds 7, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

The discrepancy in the starting pitching matchup is summed up by the pricing of this game.

As such, I’ll PASS on risking 1.85-times my potential return on the Reds despite how good Castillo has looked recently.

Castillo has six quality starts over his last seven outings with a 1.41 ERA over that span but his career numbers against St. Louis are worse than his career averages.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS -1.5 (+100) for a half unit since it’s a much cheaper price-point than Cincinnati’s money line.

Also, the Reds have the more reliable starter on the mound and Woodford’s previous start was the only outing in which he went past the third inning.

The Reds could nuke a St. Louis bullpen that has the worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in the MLB.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-105) because it’s a fairly obvious play, as the Over cashed in three straight head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati.

If Castillo isn’t on-point for this start, then he’ll be turning the game over to a bullpen that’s actually ranked below the Cardinals in WAR and has the highest HR/9 in MLB.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (9-11) wrap up their three-game set with NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals (10-10) Sunday at Busch Stadium with a 2:15 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis looks to complete a three-game sweep of Cincinnati Sunday after taking the first two games of the series by a combined score of 7-4.

Season series: Cardinals 3-2.

RHP Luis Castillo makes his fifth start for the Reds. Castillo is 1-1 with a 6.05 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.66 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 4 K’s in Cincinnati’s 5-4 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday.
  • Career vs. the Cardinals: 4-5 with a 4.70 ERA (69 IP, 36 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 in 12 starts.

RHP Jack Flaherty is on the mound for the Cardinals Sunday. Flaherty is 3-0 with a 3.80 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K’s in the Cardinals’ 12-5 victory at the Washington Nationals Monday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA (37 IP, 15 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 8 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cardinals -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-190) | Cardinals -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

Sunday’s starting pitching matchup for Reds-Cardinals is a rematch of Opening Day where both pitchers got roughed up, but I picture the St. Louis lineup doing more damage to Castillo than Cincinnati’s vs. Flaherty.

Castillo got shelled for 10 runs (eight earned runs) by the Cardinals in his first start of the year. He had two walks, no strikeouts and allowed eight hits in Cincinnati’s 11-6 Opening Day loss.

Also, Castillo has three pitches in his arsenal—a fastball, slider and changeup—but, he has essentially ditched his slider after getting smacked around on Opening Day.

Castillo used the slider on 30.1% of his pitches and the changeup 24.7% of the time in his first start against the Cardinals, but for the year, Castillo is only throwing his slider 10.9% of his pitches and the changeup 41.3%.

These updates to his pitch arsenal might not have a good outcome for Castillo when facing St. Louis.

According to Statcast, the Cardinals’ two-four hitters (1B Paul Goldschmidt, 3B Nolan Arenado and C Yadier Molina) all have a positive run value facing changeups and each has a wOBA of at least .427. Molina didn’t play yesterday after leaving Friday’s contest due to a sore foot, and he might be questionable today.

BET CARDINALS (-130) for a three-fourths unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (+155) for a quarter unit since I like the starting pitching matchup more for St. Louis, and Cincinnati has one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

The Reds’ bullpen has the second-worst FIP, the fifth-worst left on-base percentage and the fifth-most home runs per nine.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 7 (-120) for a one-fifth unit if at all because Flaherty gave up six earned runs on six hits (two home runs) vs. the Reds on Opening Day and the Over is 5-1-1 in the past seven Reds-Cardinals meetings.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (9-9) visit NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals (8-10) Friday for the first game of a three-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Reds have lost four straight games and two of their past three series with their losses coming against the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this week and the San Francisco Giants from April 12-14.

The Cardinals are 4-8 in their last 12 games and have dropped four straight series to the Washington Nationals (twice), Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers.

Cincinnati’s offense erupted when it took two of three games in the first series against St. Louis this season. The Reds outscored the Cards 27-18.

RHP Sonny Gray is on the hill for the Reds. He is 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 1 start.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 4 1/3 IP with 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 6 K Saturday in Cincinnati’s 3-2 win over the Cleveland Indians.
  • Career vs. Cardinals: 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 across 5 starts.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim makes his second start for the Cardinals. Kim is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 2.00 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 12.0 K/9.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP with 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K in St. Louis’ 9-4 victory at the Phillies Saturday.
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-0 in 11 IP with a 0.00 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 in 2 starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:35 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Cardinals 7, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME CARDINALS (-110) because the “sharp” side of the market is backing St. Louis and I think Kim bounces back from a shaky first start.

According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the money wagered (“sharps”) is on the Cardinals while more than 60% of the bets placed (“average Joe”) is on the Reds. In sports gambling, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd of people.

Kim was filthy in his two starts against the Reds last season and, last season, Statcast graded Kim in the 84th percentile in both barrel% and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, if these starters turn the ball over to the bullpen in a close game, I have a lot more faith in St. Louis’ bullpen than Cincinnati’s.

The Reds bullpen is 3-4 with the second-worst FIP, fourth-lowest left on-base percentage and second-highest home run to fly ball ratio.

BET CARDINALS (-110) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS -1.5 (+170) on the alternate run line for a quarter unit since the payout is very juicy and the last six Reds-Cardinals games were decided by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 8 (+100) since the teams have a combined 22-13-1 O/U this season.

Like the money line section, the “sharp” side of the market is on the Under and the “average Joe” is on the Over. Also, I’m projecting a good outing from Kim.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds host NL Central rival St. Louis Cardinals Thursday for Opening Day at the Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jack Flaherty is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. Flaherty was 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 9 starts last season.

  • 2020 vs. Reds: No appearances
  • Career vs. Reds: 2-2, 2.48 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 7 starts
  • Vs. Reds in the projected lineup: 56 at-bats with 4 HR, 6 RBIs, .268 BA, .402 wOBA and .268 ISO

RHP Luis Castillo is the Reds’ projected starter. In 2020, Castillo was 4-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 across 12 starts.

  • 2020 vs. Cardinals: 1-0, 1.00 ERA, (CG, 9 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K) in 1 start
  • Career vs. Cardinals: 4-4, 3.84 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 28 ER) with 8.8 K/9 in 11 starts
  • Vs. Cardinals in the projected lineup: 125 at-bats with 7 HR, 19 RBIs, .232 BA, .334 wOBA and .208 ISO

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Cardinals at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-200) | Reds -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Reds 8, Cardinals 2

Money line (ML)

Castillo’s numbers vs. the hitters he’ll see Thursday are far better than Flaherty’s which makes sense because Castillo is much more of a No. 1 starter.

Flaherty is young and in a top-notch organization, but his numbers really dipped year over year in last season’s 60-game sprint and he hasn’t pitched well in Spring Training.

Also, according to Pregame.com, this is the only game where the money column is higher than the “bets placed” column and the money column typically indicates the sharp side of the market.

If we are following the sharps, then the play is the REDS (-115) for 1 unit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Cincinnati’s lineup hit better against righties last season, ranking 15th in wOBA but had the worst BABIP in the MLB, while St. Louis was 23rd in wOBA and 14th in BABIP.

Additionally, Castillo has the second-highest ground-ball percentage in the Majors (for qualified pitchers), while Flaherty had the 14th-highest HR/FB rate for pitchers with a minimum of 30 innings pitched.

If Flaherty allows enough flyballs to Reds hitters in this park with the predicted wind forecast, then I like Cincinnati to get an insurance run or two.

BET REDS -1.5 (+165) for a one-fifth-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Cincinnati’s home field can be a bit of a launching pad. Lefties hit the most home runs last season at Great American Ball Park.

With the weather forecast predicting 14 MPH winds blowing out to right-center, I favor the Reds lineup since there are more left-handed hitters.

Reds lefties LF Jesse Winker and 3B Mike Moustakas have each hit a home run in their 10 career at-bats vs. Flaherty.

BET OVER 7.5 (+100) for a quarter-unit.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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