Tag: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves odds predictions pick betting line spread

St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (51-47) and Atlanta Braves (54-43) meet Sunday for the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch from Truist Park is set for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: St. Louis leads 3-2

Atlanta beat St. Louis 3-2 in 10 innings in game 1 of a doubleheader Saturday while covering as a -134 home favorite. 2B Ozzie Albies hit the walk off sacrifice fly to give the Braves the win.

St. Louis picked up a 9-5 win in Game 2 of Saturday’s doubleheader while covering as a -120 road favorite. The Cardinals scored 3 runs in the 9th to cushion their lead and survive a comeback attempt by the Braves.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Mikolas (7-8, 5.13 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 112 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K in an 8-3 loss vs. Chicago Cubs Sunday
  • Career vs. Atlanta: 2-4, 3.89 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 41 H, 9 BB, 28 K in 7 appearances (6 starts)

Schwellenbach (3-4, 4.43 ERA) makes his 9th start. The rookie has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 44 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in a 6-1 win at San Diego Padres on July 12
  • Career vs. St. Louis: 0-1, 7.20 ERA (5 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 1 start

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Cardinals at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:48 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Braves -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-166) | Braves -1.5 (+138)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Braves 3

Moneyline

LEAN CARDINALS (+132).

St. Louis is 3-1 in its last 4 games and is 2-1 in its last 3 matchups vs. Atlanta. The Cardinals are also 3-2 in their last 5 meetings with the Braves in Atlanta.

This is a lean because the Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 overall while the Cardinals are 5-5 over that span and the teams have split their last 10 meetings.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Cardinals to cover here as +1.5 (-166) underdogs because of how well they have played the Braves this season, but with the line set so heavily they are not worth the risk of betting on here. Bet on the plu moneyline and/or total instead.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-122).

The Over has hit in 4 of St. Louis’ last 5 overall and is 7-3 in its last 10 outings. For Atlanta, the Over is 2-1 in its last 3 games. The Over has also hit in 4 of the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (50-46) take on the Atlanta Braves (53-42) Saturday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Truist Park at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cardinals lead 2-1

These teams were rained out Friday night, and this will be the nightcap of a doubleheader. The 1st game was not finalized at press time.

The Cards went 2-4 in their final 6 games before the All-Star break, as they were clearly running on fumes. They went 18-12 in 1-run games before the break, and their pen was taxed. OF Alec Burleson has emerged, as he has raked with a .340 BA, 5 homers and 15 RBIs in 53 July at-bats thus far.

The Braves went 3-3 in the final 6 games before the break. DH Marcell Ozuna continues to power the Bravos with a .359 clip, 5 homers and 10 RBIs the last 10 games. The Cards took 2 of 3 against Atlanta in St. Louis, but the Braves are great at home at 29-17.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Bryce Elder

Gray (9-6, 3.34 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 99 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 home defeat July 12 against Chicago Cubs
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 0-2, 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 33 K in 32 IP

Elder (1-3, 5.71 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 34 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 5-4 win in 11 innings at Arizona Diamondbacks July 8
  • 2 career starts vs. Cardinals: 1-1, 1.50 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 10 K in 12 IP
  • June 26 at St. Louis: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 4-1 setback

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Cardinals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Braves -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Braves 3

Moneyline

There is still rain in the forecast for this one, so keep that in mind when placing wagers.

The Braves are tough at home, and I think the Cards get 1 game in this series. That will be right here. They had a close call Friday night as some of their players had travel issues and may not have gotten to Atlanta on time. One of those players was All-Star closer Ryan Helsley. He’ll be rested and ready for a save chance.

Take the CARDINALS -110.

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Run line/Against the spread

Player props were pretty limited at press time with the double-dip Saturday, and I don’t like either side of the RL.

PASS.

Over/Under

As mentioned, it could be a wet evening with a light 3.4-mph breeze blowing in. In what could be a long day with rain delays, I like the UNDER 8.5 (-115).

Elder was solid against the Cards last month, and the Braves are just 4-5-1 O/U in their last 10.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (50-46) take on the Atlanta Braves (53-42) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Truist Park at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cardinals lead 2-1

The Cards went 2-4 in their final 6 games before the All-Star break as they were clearly running on fumes. They went 18-12 in 1-run games before the break, and their pen was taxed. OF Alec Burleson has emerged, as he has raked with a .340 BA, 5 homers and 15 RBIs in 53 July at-bats thus far.

The Braves went 3-3 in the final 6 games before the break. DH Marcell Ozuna continues to power the Bravos with a .359 clip, 5 homers and 10 RBIs the last 10 games. The Cards took 2 of 3 against Atlanta in St. Louis, but the Braves are great at home at 29-17.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Sonny Gray vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Gray (9-6, 3.34 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 99 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-1 home defeat July 12 against Chicago Cubs
  • Last 5 starts vs. Braves: 0-2, 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 33 K in 32 IP

Schwellenbach (3-4, 4.43 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 44 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-1 victory July 12 at San Diego Padres
  • Allowed 2 ER in 13 IP (1.38 ERA) in his last 2 starts
  • June 24 at St. Louis: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 4-3 setback

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Cardinals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

This game could have issues because there is a 73% chance of rain at gametime, and it lingers throughout the evening. Keep that in mind when wagering.

That said, I like the Braves here. Gray has given up 23 hits in 16 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts, and he has allowed 11 ER in the process. Schwellenbach got touched up in his previous start in St. Louis, but the Braves are very tough at home.

Take the BRAVES -135.

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Run line/Against the spread

I like ALEC BURLESON OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135). He went 2-for-2 with an RBI double against Schwellenbach in his June start against St. Louis.

Over/Under

As mentioned, it could be a wet evening with a light 2-mph breeze blowing in. With the way Gray has been hit of late, and the Cards’ success against Schwellenbach, I’m taking the OVER 7.5 (-105). The Cards are 8-2 O/U in their last 10, and the Braves are 4-5-1

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (61-78) will conclude a 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves (90-48) on Thursday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-2

The Cardinals beat the Braves 11-6 on Wednesday as they produced 6 earned runs on RHP Spencer Strider before the 3rd inning ended. St. Louis has won 3 straight games, but it remains in last place in the NL Central and is 11 games back of the final NL Wild Card.

Braves 1B Matt Olson hit his league-leading 46th homer of the season and 3B Austin Riley hit his 34th homer in Wednesday’s loss. Atlanta is on a 3-game losing skid but is still 13 1/2 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for 1st place in the NL East.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Adam Wainwright vs. LHP Max Fried

Wainwright (3-10, 8.10 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.98 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 through 83 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 4-1 home defeat vs. Diego Padres on Aug. 28.
  • 2023 road stats: 2-3, 8.67 ERA (36 1/3 IP, 35 ER) in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Braves: 10-4, 3.42 ERA (108 IP, 41 ER) in 16 starts and 5 relief appearances

Fried (6-1, 2.52 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 60 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 10 K in a 6-3 road victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
  • 2023 home stats: 1-1, 3.70 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts
  • Career vs. Cardinals: 4-0, 0.34 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 1 ER) in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Cardinals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Braves -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +2.5 (-115) | Braves -2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

While the Braves (-300) should easily win Thursday, just AVOID taking their moneyline in this matchup. Risking 3 times your potential return isn’t advised, no matter how much of a lock a team seems to be.

Run line/Against the spread

Taking a team to win by at least 3 runs is unusual in baseball, but I’ll take the BRAVES -2.5 (-115) at home against an aging Wainwright. Wainwright has given up 6 earned runs or more in 3 of his last 5 starts, and the Braves boast the best lineup in the league.

Over/Under

UNDER 10.5 (-115) is the lean in this game despite Wainwright’s woes on the mound. There’s certainly a chance the Braves can hit the Over themselves, but with Fried pitching for Atlanta, it’s hard to envision the Cardinals having much success at the plate.

Since the beginning of August, the Cardinals have the 13th-lowest ISO (.160), the 10th-lowest wOBA (.301), and the 10th-lowest wRC+ (89) against left-handed pitching.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The St. Louis Cardinals (60-78) and Atlanta Braves (90-47) play the 2nd of a 3-game set at Truist Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 3-1

The Cardinals mashed to a 10-6 victory in the series opener Tuesday night. They pounded 4 home runs and were up 9-1 at one point, but their bullpen allowed the Braves to make it interesting late in the game. St. Louis is just 8-12 over its last 20 games and 29-38 on the road in what has been a lost season.

The Braves hit 4 home runs of their own Tuesday night, and even though they were down a lot, they never looked shaken. Atlanta has lost 2 in a row after a 6-game win streak but is still 15-5 over its last 20 games and clearly the best team in baseball.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Dakota Hudson vs. RHP Spencer Strider

Hudson (5-1, 4.02 ERA) makes his 8th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 in 56 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 0 K against the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday
  • 2 career starts vs. Braves: 0-1, 6.97 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 4 K in 10 1/3 IP

Strider (16-4, 3.56 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 159 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K Thursday against the Los Angeles Dodgers
  • 2 career starts vs. Cardinals: 1-0, 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 19 K in 12 IP

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Cardinals at Braves odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Braves -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +2.5 (-135) | Braves -2.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

The Braves are massive favorites, and for good reason, as Strider would really have to be off his game to give the Cardinals a chance. Hudson pitches to contact, and the Braves possess the kind of hard contact that you don’t want. This one shouldn’t be close, but we’re not paying 3 times the return.

Instead, a single-game parlay of BRAVES ML and STRIDER 8 K’s (-150) is the way I would play it.

Run line/Against the spread

I can’t remember the last time the Cardinals were +2.5 on the run line, and as tantalizing as it seems, I just have no confidence they can keep it within 2 runs. They caught the Braves with a pitcher who left due to injury Tuesday, and it’s time to pay the piper Wednesday. However, I also don’t like the risk of the Braves having to beat the Cards by 3.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Cards are 5-4-1 O/U over the last 10 games, and the Braves are 6-4. The Over is 5-5 over the last 10 between the clubs. The ball was flying last night with some mammoth home runs and I expect the same result Wednesday night. St. Louis has one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball, and Hudson is prone to walks.

Take the OVER 9 (-115).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (44-40) wrap up their 4-game series with the Atlanta Braves (49-34) Thursday at Truist Park with the 1st pitch set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta is going for the sweep after winning the first 3 games of this series by a combined score of 16-4. This is the 1st series between the team with the 2nd series in late August in St. Louis.

The Braves are 7-3 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games and sit 2.5 games behind the New York Mets for 1st in the NL East.

The Cardinals are 3-7 SU in the last 10 and are 3 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central lead.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

LHP Matthew Liberatore vs. RHP Spencer Strider 

Liberatore is 2-1 in 5 starts with a 5.66 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 4.8 B/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision in Saturday’s 7-6 win at the Philadelphia Phillies with 2 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 0-1 with a 10.97 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 20 H, 4 HR, 6 BB and 7 K in 3 starts.

Strider is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 13.6 K/9 in 59 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 11 relief appearances.

  • Last start: Won 4-1 Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds with 6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
  • 2022 starter splits: 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 3 HR and 13.5 K/9 in 7 starts.

Cardinals at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:21 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Braves -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (+100) | Braves -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 7, Cardinals 3

Money line

PASS.

There are a lot of pro-Atlanta ML arguments to be made here including its 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+205) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

But, we are getting to the party late on the Braves (-260) since they opened as -185 ML favorites and have been steamed all the way up to the current number, per Pregame.com.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Atlanta’s lineup nukes left-handed pitching and Strider is the frontrunner for rookie of the year and has nasty stuff.

The Braves rank 5th in wRC+ (118), 3rd in wOBA (.343), 2nd in ISO (.204) and 1st in hard-hit rate (35.2%) vs. left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

Strider is 2nd in xFIP (2.40) and 5th in swinging-strike rate (15.8%) for all starters with at least 30 innings pitched, according to FanGraphs.

Also, Strider is in the 98th percentile in fastball velocity, 99th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in expected ERA, per Statcast.

BET BRAVES -1.5 (-120) to complete the 4-game sweep of the Cardinals +1.5 (+100).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) since the Braves are 21-16-2 O/U as home favorites, 11-6 O/U at home vs. left-handed starters and Truist Park is 6th in park factor aka extremely hitter-friendly.

That said, I feel stronger about Atlanta’s RL and there are several Under-friendly situational trends in Cardinals-Braves.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (48-34) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-39) Wednesday at Truist Park for the 3rd of their 4-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta won the 1st two games of this series by a combined score of 13-4 and the Braves are 8-1 vs. the Cardinals since the beginning of last season.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Miles Mikolas vs. LHP Max Fried 

Mikolas is 5-6 with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 100 IP over 16 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 5-3 Friday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 5 1/3 IP, 4 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 1 K.
  • 2022 road splits: 3-4 with a 2.63 ERA (48 IP, 14 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 4 HR and 6.9 K/9 in 8 starts.

Fried is 8-2 with a 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 101 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

  • Last start: Won 9-1 Friday at the Cincinnati Reds with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Cardinals: 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA (13 IP, 1 ER), 0.69 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 2 starts.

Cardinals at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-145) | Braves -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 5, Cardinals 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (-180) since they have a 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+145) in starting and relief pitching and hitting and this is a bad spot for St. Louis.

Fried has a .236/.281/.347 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with an 84.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 48 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Cardinals hitters, per Statcast. Mikolas is .268/.355/.518 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 89.5 mph EV in 48 PA vs. current Braves batters.

Furthermore, Atlanta’s bullpen is 3rd in both xFIP (3.62) and K/BB rate (3.32) and 5th in hard-hit rate (35.8%). Whereas St. Louis’s bullpen is 21st in xFIP (4.05), 22nd in K/BB (2.41) and 14th in hard-hit rate (37.9%).

Also, Atlanta’s lineup is better than St. Louis’s by wOBA (.329-.319), hard-hit rate (43.5-34.9%), EV (89.9-87.6 mph) and barrel rate (11.3-6.5%), according to FanGraphs.

Finally, the Braves are 6-3 straight up (SU) as home favorites of -150 or greater with Fried on the bump while the Cardinals are 1-3 SU as road underdogs vs. left-handed starters.

BET the BRAVES (-180).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Cardinals +1.5 (-145) are 3-1 RL as road underdogs vs. left-handed starters despite their 1-3 SU record and the Braves are just 17-21 RL as home favorites even though Atlanta is 25-13 SU as home favorites.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-102) only because I feel stronger about Atlanta’s ML and the Over 8.5 (-122) appears to be the sharper side since it’s pricier.

However, both teams have their top power-ranked starter on the hill, the Braves are 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games vs. righty starters and the Cardinals are 0-7-2 O/U in their last 9 games vs. lefty starters.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (46-34) host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-37) Monday for the start of their 4-game series at Truist Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis is just 4-6 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games and dropped 2 of a 3-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies last weekend.

Atlanta is 6-4 SU in the last 10 with 2 consecutive 2-1 series road victories at the Phillies last week and at the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend.

The Braves beat the Cardinals 6-1 SU in last year’s season series and had a plus-17 run differential in those meetings, but St. Louis is 3-0 vs. Atlanta this season with plus-7 run differential in the 3 games.

Cardinals at Braves projected starters

RHP Dakota Hudson vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Hudson is 6-4 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 5.0 K/9 in 80 IP over 15 starts.

  • Last start: Won 5-3 Tuesday at home vs. the Miami Marlins with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
  • 5-day rest splits: 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 0 HR and 5.7 K/9 in 4 starts.

Wright is 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 92 IP over 15 starts.

  • Last start: Won 4-1 Wednesday at the Phillies with 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
  • 4-day rest splits: 2-2 with a 4.02 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 4 HR and 8.0 K/9 in 5 starts.

Cardinals at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:44 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Cardinals at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Cardinals 3

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the BRAVES (-180) instead of betting to win 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number. But, Atlanta has a 3-phase edge over the Cardinals (+145) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Wright grades in the 64th percentile or better in expected ERA, whiff rate, K% and expected slugging percentage (per Statcast) while Hudson grades in the 19th percentile or worse in all those metrics.

Atlanta’s bullpen is a lot more reliable than St. Louis’s. The Braves relievers are 3rd in xFIP (3.60) with much better swing-and-miss and contact rates than the Cardinals’ bullpen whose 22nd in xFIP (4.09), per FanGraphs.

Also, Atlanta’s lineup outperforms St. Louis’s vs. right-handed pitching in wOBA (.320-.314), ISO (.189-.151) and hard-hit rate (36.6-27.6%), according to FanGraphs.

Finally, the Cardinals are just 2-8 SU as road underdogs of +125 or greater with a minus-53.5% return on investment (ROI). The Braves are 6-2 SU as home favorites with Wright as the starters with a plus-23.3% ROI.

If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the BRAVES (-180) to earn a $55.56 profit instead of betting $180 to win $100.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

We are getting late to the party here since Atlanta’s RL opened at +120 (according to Pregame.com) and the Braves are just 3-5 RL with a minus-22.1% ROI as home favorites with Wright on the bump.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-112) because both lineups are less productive vs. right-handed pitching, the Braves are 4-11 O/U in Wright’s 15 starts and the Cardinals are 4-6 O/U as road underdogs of +125 or greater. However, Atlanta’s ML is my favorite look in Cardinals-Braves.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (32-35) host the St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) for Game 2 of their Sunday seven-inning doubleheader. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta has dominated the first two games of the series, winning both by a combined score of 13-1 while striking out 15 Cardinals hitters and walking just three.

Season series: Braves lead 2-0.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim takes the mound for the Cardinals. Kim is 1-4 with a 3.72 ERA (46 IP, 19 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 10 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 5 BB and 6 K in St. Louis’ 2-1 victory over the Miami Marlins Tuesday.
  • No career appearances vs. the Braves.

LHP Drew Smyly makes his 12th start for the Braves. Smyly is 3-3 with a 5.63 ERA (56 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the Marlins.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 9 at-bats with a .333/.500/.556 slash line, 1/3 K/BB, 0 HR and 2 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cardinals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:39 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals -1.5 (+165) | Braves +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (+100) for a quarter unit only, because the Over 7.5 (-110) is my favorite play in this game

But, St. Louis’s lineup has been better vs. left-handed pitching and Kim’s advanced pitching numbers are less terrible than Smyly’s.

The Cardinals are 10-5 this season when facing lefty starters and their lineup has the ninth-most wRC+ against left-handed pitching and the fourth-highest BB/K rate.

Also, Atlanta is only 7-9 vs. lefty starters and 4-7 in Smyly’s 13 starts this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. St. Louis’s bullpen is too untrustworthy to bet the Cardinals -1.5 (+165) since the relievers are dead-last in advanced pitching categories such as SIERA, xFIP and K-BB%.

Granted, it’s only a seven-inning game but that still leaves enough time for this St. Louis bullpen to blow whatever lead Kim gives it.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 7.5 (-110) for 1 unit because these teams have a combined 15-4 O/U this season when these starters take the mound, the Braves are 23-13-2 O/U in Atlanta and the Cardinals are 20-14-2 O/U away from St. Louis.

Furthermore, both starters grade in the 33rd percentile or worse in expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage, K% and whiff rate so each lineup could do some damage Sunday.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (35-35) visit Truist Park Saturday for the third game of their four-game series with the Atlanta Braves (32-35).  First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta has owned St. Louis through the first two games of the series, winning both by a combined score of 13-1 with nine extra-base hits.

Season series: Braves lead 2-0.

RHP Adam Wainwright is on the mound for the Cardinals. Wainwright is 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA (79 2/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 13 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 6 K in St. Louis’s 4-2 victory over the Miami Marlins Monday.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 126 at-bats with a .286/.366/.373 slash line, 30/16 K/BB, 0 HR and 9 RBIs.

LHP Drew Smyly makes his 12th start for the Braves. Smyly is 3-3 with a 5.63 ERA (56 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-4, with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 6 K Sunday at the Marlins.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster: 7 at-bats with a .286/.444/.429 slash line, 1/2 K/BB, 0 HR and 2 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Cardinals at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:49 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-185) | Braves -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Braves 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the CARDINALS (-105) because Smyly’s advanced pitching numbers are even uglier than his basic stat line and St. Louis’s lineup hits lefties as well as Atlanta’s hits righties.

For instance, Smyly grades in the 23rd percentile or worse in K%, whiff rate, exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected opponent’s wOBA and expected slugging percentage this season.

Additionally, the Cardinals are eighth in wRC+, 11th in wOBA, and fourth in BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching, and a 10-5 record against lefty starters.

Furthermore, Wainwright is a cagey vet who’s faired well historically against reigning Braves MVP Freddie Freeman and hasn’t allowed a hit against superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. in his seven career plate appearances.

Also, there’s some heavy reverse line movement as Atlanta opened as a -130 money line favorite and has been moved down to the current number despite getting only a slight majority of the action thus far.

It’s only a “LEAN” to the CARDINALS (-105) for a half unit because the Braves have been raking in their last four home games and they should start piling wins as we get into the dog days of the summer.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the CARDINALS +0.5 (-130) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since we are getting a fair price on a half-run worth of insurance in a starting pitching matchup that favors St. Louis.

Plus we can hopefully avoid having to sweat the Cardinals relievers holding a lead since the St. Louis bullpen is dead-last in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. I’m more confident in St. Louis’s lineup in this spot rather than Wainwright on the mound and I could see the Cardinals having to win a slugfest.

Also, with St. Louis’s weak bullpen, the Over could “sneak in the backdoor” if the Cardinals rake Smyly and use their less effective relievers in a 7-0 (or so) game.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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