We’ve been down this road before but always start this with a bit of an explanation. ESPN’s resident analytics guru Bill Connelly dissects the website’s SP+ Rankings for college football every week, and it may be a bit surprising to see where some teams land.
That’s because the rankings don’t just go by win-loss records and the eye test like many of the traditional polls and opinion-making media-types out there. Instead, it uses predictive metrics to determine how good a team will perform in the future.
Want a further explanation from Connelly himself straight off of ESPN’s website? Okay, here you go. From the horse’s mouth itself:
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
🔥 NEW SP+ RANKINGS 🔥
* Unbeaten Ohio State remains No. 1
* Movement galore! Wisconsin to 4th! Michigan to 9th! BYU to 10th! Cincy to 12th! HELLO, NORTHWESTERN
* Hello to you, too, Rutgers & SJSU!
* This week's "Why does SP+ my team??" subject: K-Statehttps://t.co/3nkEERTyXV— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 25, 2020
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All of that being said, you may be surprised to learn, or have it reinforced, that Ohio State finished last year as the No. 1 rated SP+ team in the country, even after losing to Clemson. You may also be as equally shocked with the notion that the Buckeyes have continued to rank No. 1 this season, even as it sat in the queue of a bizarre 2020 season that finally kicked off for it this weekend.
What you may not be surprised about is that OSU continued to remain atop the rankings after it treated Nebraska like an unwelcome guest in front of some family and friends, and what looked like a few thousand cardboard cutouts.
And it’s really not even that close. Ohio State has a current rating of 31.8, well ahead of second-place Clemson at 27.2, and Alabama with a 26.8 rating.
You can look at the full list or rankings and ratings yourself, but the top ten consists of the following teams:
1. Ohio State – 31.8
2. Clemson – 27.2
3. Alabama – 26.8
4. Wisconsin – 25.5
5. Georgia – 22.6
6. Florida – 19.7
7. Notre Dame – 19.5
8. Penn State – 19.3
9. Michigan– 18.8
10. BYU – 18.6
If you’re counting, it’s now been 54-straight calendar weeks that the Buckeyes have held the top spot. That’s a pretty good run. Now if only the results continue to show it on the field and they can finish the thing off with a national title to go with the one from the 2014 season.
Also: ESPN Predicts every remaining game on Ohio State’s schedule
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