Tag: SP+ rankings

Where do the Oklahoma Sooners land in updated ESPN’s SP+ rankings?

Oklahoma Sooners aren’t too far behind the Top 25 in SP+ rankings, despite a 5-5 record.

The Oklahoma Sooners watched the rest of the college football world in action in Week 12, as they were on their second and final bye week of the 2024 regular season.

OU’s record sits at 5-5 and just 1-5 in [autotag]SEC[/autotag] play, a disappointing mark for a program that is used to winning and winning big. In the third season under head coach [autotag]Brent Venables[/autotag], it’s been a rough go of things in Norman in Year 1 in a new league.

But in at least one metric, Oklahoma may not be as bad as their record indicates. ESPN college football writer Bill Connelly released his weekly SP+ rankings (ESPN+)for all 134 teams at the FBS level.

Connelly defines SP+ as a tempo-and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, and is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.

While the Sooners are far from sniffing the actual Top 25 and are a long shot to making a bowl game for the first time in 25 years, SP+ has them ranked all the way up at No. 27, sandwiched in between Colorado and Virginia Tech.

One saving grace of OU’s poor season, and the most likely reason for the top-30 ranking, is that they’ve played a very difficult schedule. Tulane is one of the best teams in the Group of Five, and Oklahoma beat them by 15 points. South Carolina is far better than anyone expected, and teams like Tennessee, Texas, Ole Miss, and Missouri have all had their moments in 2024.

Unfortunately, the schedule doesn’t get any easier, as Alabama comes to town on Saturday, and Oklahoma will face LSU on the road a week after that. The Sooners will have to win at least one of those matchups if they want to avoid missing a bowl game for the first time since 1998.

Contact/Follow us @SoonersWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oklahoma news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Aaron on X @AaronGelvin.

Florida jumps into ESPN SP+ top 30 while on bye in Week 5

Florida moved ahead of Week 6 opponent UCF in the post-week 5 SP+ rankings from ESPN, but the Gators special teams unit is no longer at No. 1.

Although the Florida Gators didn’t play a game over the weekend, ESPN’s SP+ rankings continue to adjust based on the play of the other 133 programs in the country.

Following the Week 5 bye, Florida heads into a Week 6 matchup against the UCF Knights. The Knights are a formidable opponent, but a big loss to the Colorado Buffaloes has UCF sliding down the SP+ rankings, from No. 29 to No. 38.

That shakeup puts Florida ahead of UCF in this week’s rankings. Check out the SP+ predictions for Saturday’s contest here.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, the Gators were ranked No. 33 out of 134 schools with an overall 10.3 rating. After the bye, they now rank No. 30 with an 11.3 overall rating.

Florida’s special teams remain ranked in the top 10 at No. 8 with a 0.4 rating but are no longer the in top spot on the list. On offense, the team moved up from No. 13 with a 36.7 rating to No. 12 with a 37.5 rating while the defense dropped from No. 62 to No. 68 with a 26.6 rating — 0.2 lower than last week’s figure.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes are now in the top spot of the SP+ rankings after Week 5, followed by the, Texas Longhorns, Alabama Crimson Tide, Ole Miss Rebels and Tennesse Volunteers, respectively.

The Penn State Nittany Lions, Georgia Bulldogs, Oregon Ducks, Missouri Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish round out the top 10, in that order.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida is back in The Swamp for an in-state matchup against UCF in Week 6. The last time the Gators and Knights faced off came during a transition period for the Orange and Blue and ended in a 29-17 victory for UCF.

The Knights have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, and Florida’s defense is once again a major concern.

Follow us @GatorsWire on Twitter and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

LSU cracks the top 10 in ESPN’s final preseason SP+ rankings

The Tigers rank fifth among SEC teams despite sitting inside the top 10.

The beginning of the 2024 college football season is less than two weeks away, and with that in mind, ESPN has released its final preseason SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Billy Connelly.

SP+ is an analytics-based system that focuses on how teams play rather than the wins and losses, and it’s a metric that likes LSU quite a bit entering the 2024 season.

The Tigers ranked in the top 10 of the final rankings, coming in at No. 10. The offense is expected to be elite, ranking No. 2 entering the season, and the defense is at least expected to be improved, coming in at No. 38.

SP+ is much less high on LSU’s special teams unit, which ranks just 83rd entering the season.

The Tigers will hope to compete for a College Football Playoff spot in 2024, but it won’t be easy. Despite ranking in the top 10, four SEC teams — Georgia, Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss — rank above LSU entering the season.

Contact/Follow us @LSUTigersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Louisiana State news, notes, and opinions.

Follow Tyler to continue the conversation on Twitter: @TylerNettuno

Texas ranks No. 1 among SEC teams in returning offensive line snaps

For the most part, Texas’ offensive line is back.

Experience, continuity and cohesion are paramount for an offensive line. Texas’ offensive line unit has it all.

According to one metric, the Texas Longhorns return 83% of their offensive line snaps from the 2023 season. The returning snap percentage puts the team No. 1 in the Longhorns’ new conference at the position. That paired with the talent and experience of the unit make it one of the best offensive lines in the SEC.

Center Jake Majors enters what should be his fourth full season as the starting center. Majors started a couple games in the 2020 season as well. Top 2025 NFL draft prospect Kelvin Banks Jr. and Hayden Conner enter third seasons as starters while Devon Campbell Jr. and Cole Hutson have split time at starter the last two seasons.

Kentucky (78%), LSU (75%) and Georgia (74%) return the next most snaps in the conference along the offensive line. Alabama (52%), Arkansas (41%), Oklahoma (17%) and Mississippi State (4%) return the least snaps in the conference up front.

Texas plays a mix of some of the most experienced lines in the SEC. Opposing teams rank as follows in returning snaps within the league: No. 2 Kentucky, No. 3 LSU, No. 5 Texas A&M (66%), No. 7 Vanderbilt (60%), No. 12 Florida (54%), No. 14 Arkansas, No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 16 Mississippi State.

Presumably, Oklahoma will have a better offensive line than Vanderbilt, but the inexperience of many of Texas’ opponents bodes well for a Longhorns defensive line that replaces Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat. Texas will face four of the five teams with the least returning snaps from last season. The lack of continuity could lead to less cohesion, and breakdown in communication could follow.

The Longhorns are on the side you want to be on in returning offensive line snaps. They project to be a Top 10 line in college football next season.

Texas ranks No. 4 in SP+ college football rankings for 2024 season

Texas is a Top 4 college football team in Bill Connely’s SP+ rankings.

Texas is a Top 4 team in college football for 2024. ESPN’s Bill Connely’s metrics back up that sentiment.

Connely released early SP+ rankings for the upcoming college football season. It comes as no surprise the Longhorns ranked highly on the list. Texas checks in at No. 4 behind Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon. That’s probably about where it belongs.

ESPN’s SP+ ratings take returning production, recruiting and recent history into account. The Longhorns fared well in all three categories for the metric.

Inside Texas’ Joe Cook noted where each of Texas’ scheduled opponents rank in SP+ for the cycle. Below is the Longhorns’ schedule with each opponent’s SP+ rankings.

  1. Colorado State – No. 98
  2. Michigan – No. 6
  3. UTSA – No. 53
  4. Louisiana-Monroe – No. 134
  5. Mississippi State – No. 68
  6. Oklahoma – No. 15
  7. Georgia – No. 1
  8. Vanderbilt – No. 97
  9. Florida – No. 33
  10. Arkansas – No. 46
  11. Kentucky – No. 25
  12. Texas A&M – No. 13

Interesting takeaways from the above rankings begin with the fact that Texas faces a tough, but manageable schedule. The Longhorns are given four Top 15 opponents in Georgia, Michigan, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Kentucky and Florida are sneaky good matchups at No. 25 and No. 33, but both will be in Austin.

UTSA appears to be significantly better than Mississippi State in the metric. Vanderbilt and Colorado State appear to be the same level of difficulty if the ratings are accurate. Louisiana-Monroe is ranked as the worst team in FBS football according to the SP+ ratings.

How does Texas fare in 2024? It will face No. 6 Michigan and No. 13 Texas A&M on the road. Additionally, the Longhorns host No. 1 Georgia in Austin and take on No. 15 Oklahoma in Dallas. That’s a tough stretch, but one in which Texas probably doesn’t go winless.

The Longhorns do match up well with Michigan and at some places seem to have an advantage against Oklahoma. Texas A&M will break in a new coaching staff and in many ways a new roster. We’ll have a better idea how accurate the ratings are after the first couple weeks of the season.

LSU a top-10 team per post-spring SP+ rankings from ESPN

The Tigers are a top-10 team according to Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric.

With the dust mostly settled from the spring transfer portal window and rosters for the 2024 season just about finalized, it’s rankings time.

We’ve seen several outlets release post-spring college football top 25s, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly joined the trend by releasing his updated SP+ rankings following spring practice.

Unlike typical power rankings, SP+ isn’t based on human opinion but rather an algorithm. It’s a predictive measure of college football efficiency based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. It isn’t heavily influenced by win or loss results but rather by how a team plays.

SP+ seems to be higher on the Tigers than most. LSU ranks ninth per the post-spring SP+ rankings, sitting at third overall on offense. SP+ is also high on the defense, ranking it 35th after it struggled significantly last season.

Special teams aren’t quite so high, ranking 83rd.

LSU lost a lot of pieces from last year’s team, which reached 10 wins again but suffered some disappointing losses. Despite those losses, though, there’s reason to believe the Tigers won’t be poised to take a significant step back.

Contact/Follow us @LSUTigersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Louisiana State news, notes, and opinions.

Follow Tyler to continue the conversation on Twitter: @TylerNettuno

ESPN SP+ ranks the top college football teams for 2024

ESPN’s SP+ rating ranks the Texas Longhorns in the Top 5 for 2024.

Bill Connelly of ESPN has released his SP+ rating for the 2024 season. The metric views Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas as the four best teams in college football heading into the upcoming season.

The ranking adds credence to the widely accepted notion that the above four teams are the top contenders for the 2024 College Football Playoff and national title.

Connelly’s ratings metric covers three areas: returning production, recruiting and on-field success. Last season’s cycle saw all four of the above teams fare as well as anybody in the three categories with the potential to do more damage in 2024.

The rankings outside those four might surprise. Here’s a look at where Connelly and his SP+ metric has the top 15 teams for the next football season.

Where Florida football ranks ahead of the spring, per ESPN’s SP+

Football season is still half a year away, but ESPN has released its pre-spring SP+ rankings and the Gators are in the top 35.

The Florida Gators football team starts the spring at No. 33 overall on the SP+ rankings from ESPN.

SP+ is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking. Along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the season. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date,” according to ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly.

Florida’s 8.6 SP+ rating is mostly thanks to the offense. The Gators’ offensive SP+ rating of 34.4 is the 27th-highest rating in the country, but a defensive rating 25.8 (49th) brings the overall number down a bit. Perhaps surprisingly, Florida’s much-criticized special teams unit is ranked ninth in the country with 0.6 ratings.

At the top of the preseason list are the usual suspects, Georgia (34.5) and Ohio State (30.1). Texas (28.7) checks in at No. 4 before starting its SEC journey, the reigning national champion Michigan Wolverines are fifth (27.0), and a Saban-less Alabama (26.6) is at No. 6.

Follow us @GatorsWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

Looking at where Texas ranks in SEC in returning offensive production

The Texas Longhorns are Top 5 in returning offensive and defensive production in the SEC.

Is Texas on the verge of an offensive drop off? The numbers suggest the opposite.

Not long ago we noted the Longhorns’ overall returning production ranking among SEC teams. Texas ranked second to the Texas A&M Aggies in that category. Perhaps more impressive is the balance between strong offensive and defensive returning production.

Texas is in the Top 5 of the SEC in both offensive and defensive returning production according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. His statistical model, which now includes what transfers did in their last season, has Texas as one of the most complete teams in the conference.

Offensively, the Longhorns return 74% of their production from last season. That includes what the team adds from transfer receivers Matthew Golden (Houston), Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Silas Bolden (Oregon State) and Amari Niblack. The four combined 160 receptions, 2,145 yards and 19 touchdowns from last season.

The Longhorns’ rivals from across the Red River aren’t faring as well in returning production. Despite returning several impact receivers, the Oklahoma Sooners return just 44% of their production from last season. Much of that production left with transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel to Oregon.

Here’s a look at where every SEC team ranks in returning offensive production in 2024.

LSU cracks initial top 10 in 2024 SP+ analytics rankings

SP+ is particularly high on LSU’s offense, which ranks third nationally.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly has released his initial, pre-spring SP+ analytics rankings.

Connelly’s rankings don’t take human opinion into account like a typical poll. Rather, SP+ takes three primary factors — returning production, recent recruiting and recent history — into account to rank college football teams.

For the uninitiated, SP+ is meant to be predictive rather than rank teams’ resumes.

While most early rankings have LSU in the top 15 entering 2024, SP+ is even higher on coach Brian Kelly’s team. It ranks the Tigers No. 10, with the offense ranking third and the defense ranking 34th.

The special teams unit, which ranks 83rd, is currently what’s weighing them down the most.

LSU is one of four SEC teams that cracked the initial top 10, joining No. 1 Georgia, No. 4 Texas, No. 6 Alabama and No. 8 Ole Miss.

Contact/Follow us @LSUTigersWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Louisiana State news, notes, and opinions.

Follow Tyler to continue the conversation on Twitter: @TylerNettuno