Tag: SP+

Wisconsin firmly in the top 20 of ESPN SP+’s final preseason rankings

ESPN’s SP+’s final preseason ranking is always the last milestone before football actually begins. The rankings dropped yesterday.

Wisconsin is projected at a similar spot in every preseason ranking thus far. The USATODAYSports AFCA Coaches Poll has the Badgers at No. 21 and the AP Poll has the team at No. 19.

ESPN’s SP+’s final preseason ranking is always the last milestone before football actually begins. The rankings dropped yesterday. To kill the suspense, Wisconsin ranks No. 19.

The metric has the Badgers with the No. 43-ranked offense and No. 10 defense. It projects the team at 8.9 total wins, 6.2 conference wins and the No. 59-ranked strength of schedule in the country.

Consider this a broken record as we enter a Wisconsin football season: if the offense clicks and rises into the nation’s top 20, the Badgers could be in for a very special season.

Bill Connelly says Wisconsin was one college football’s best programs of the 2010s

Wisconsin’s run from 2010-2019 earned the program a high ranking in ESPN’s list

ESPN’s Bill Connelly recently unveiled a piece detailing the best college football programs of each decade going back to the 1920s.

Wisconsin appeared a few times on his list. It was listed as the ninth-best program of the 1950s and, notably, the sixth-best program of the 2010s.

Wisconsin’s performance from 2010-2019 included two top-five finishes. The program fell behind only Alabama (four national championships), Ohio State (2014 national champs), LSU (2019 national champs), Oklahoma (two top-five finishes) and Georgia (five top-five finishes). Surprisingly, the Badgers slotted in above a Clemson program which won two national championships during that timeframe.

The Wisconsin fanbase may not appreciate the program’s performance from 2010-2019 nearly enough. It makes some sense, as the end-of-year standing consistently fell behind the caliber of the team. Narrow Big Ten Championship losses in 2016, 2017 and 2019 go a long way toward crafting that narrative.

With Luke Fickell now at the helm hoping to get Wisconsin back to championship status, I think another run similar to the 2010s would be viewed as a huge success. Who knows what happens when the Badgers take the field in a College Football Playoff game or Big Ten Championship. But if Fickell’s teams are at or above the level as some of Chryst’s best, the finishing results may finally look a bit better.

ESPN releases preseason SP+ rankings for 2023 college football season

Ahead of the 2023 college football season, ESPN’s Bill Connelly believes the Florida Gators will enter the season in the SP+ Top 20.

ESPN recently released their 2023 preseason SP+ rankings, with the Florida Gators coming in among the top 20 in the country.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

There are three primary factors that Connelly uses to determine the preseason SP+ rankings: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

Recent production refers to how much talent that contributed is returning for the next season. Recent recruiting provides context for the caliber of players that will be replacing those that have left the program. Recent history incorporates the previous two-to-four seasons of results, providing an indication of what the program’s goals are and what direction they are going in.

Florida comes in at No. 20 nationally, No. 7 in the SEC, and No. 3 in the SEC East, behind Georgia (No.1) and Tennessee (No. 6) in their division. They scored a national rating of 15.1, less than half of what the No. 1 ranked Bulldogs scored (31.7). Offensively, they come in at No. 22 in the nation with a score of 37.3. Defensively, they come in at No. 34 in the nation with a score of 22.2.

Using Connelly’s three factors, the rating makes sense for the Orange and Blue. If you only consider the amount of roster turnover from last season, the SP+ rankings would probably have been much lower than No. 20. But because of [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag]’s increased quality of players brought in via the transfer portal and the last two recruiting cycles, the projection bumped the Gators up a bit. The upward trajectory of the program also plays a factor.

The first look at the 2023 Florida Gators team will come on Thursday, April 13, when the Orange and Blue play in their annual Orange and Blue Debut spring game. Last year, Napier moved the game from a Saturday to Thursday in order to get more recruits on campus. It seems like the program liked how it went as this is now the second consecutive year that the game will be held on a Thursday. The Gators announced a crowd of about 45,000 fans for last season’s game.

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Florida outside the top 100 in SP+ returning production rankings for 2023

ESPN’s Bill Connelly has released his 2023 returning production rankings, with the Gators outside the top 100.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his 2023 returning production rankings which utilizes his SP+ model, with the Florida Gators returning 54% of their production and landing outside the top 100.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The returning production rankings use a slightly different formula than Connelly’s traditional SP+ rankings. They take into account a team’s previous season’s statistics for players that will be returning in the upcoming season.

Coming in at No. 107 in the country, the Florida Gators are expected to have a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. The offensive returning production comes in at No. 103 with 55% returning production, while the defensive returning production comes in at No. 91 with 53% returning production.

Both the offensive and defensive numbers make perfect sense. The Gators saw massive roster turnover on both sides of the ball, as [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] is continuing the process of crafting the roster in his image. According to On3, of the 30 players in Florida’s 2023 recruiting class, only 20 came from high school.

Of those 20, 16 are blue-chip recruits, meaning they are considered a four- or five-star prospects. The other 10 players are transfers, as Napier has been active in using the transfer portal to turn over the roster.

The Gators still have work to do to compete for championships at the highest level, but recrafting the roster is a necessary, albeit long, process. For 2023, they’ll have to compete against teams like Florida State, who return 87% of their production from a 10-3 team, good for the most returning production in the nation.

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Here’s where Florida lands in ESPN’s final 2022 season SP+ rankings

The Gators are a top 35 team in ESPN’s final SP+ rankings of the 2022 season, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

ESPN has released their final college football SP+ rankings of the 2022 college football season, with the Florida Gators coming in as a top 35 team in the country.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 24th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 37.5. Defensively, Florida is the 69th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 27.4. With such contrasting numbers, the Gators’ final 2022 record of 6-7 (including their Las Vegas Bowl loss) makes perfect sense.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains Billy Napier’s first season in charge of the Orange and Blue. Offensively, the Gators were one of the best-rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag], and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] did their jobs behind a talented offensive line led by consensus first-team All-American guard O’Cyrus Torrence. Both Richardson and Torrence have declared for the NFL draft while Etienne and Johnson Jr. are expected to be the backbone of the Gators’ offensive identity in 2023.

Florida’s defensive ranking accurately represents the journey the unit took over the course of the season. Sometimes, the defense looked lost and confused. Other times, the defense was locked in and determined to get off the field. They even recorded at least one turnover in all 12 games this season.

After their Las Vegas Bowl loss to Oregon State, the Gators turned their attention to the transfer portal and recruiting to continue building the roster in Napier’s image. They currently have 21 players in their 2023 class, with most of them considered to be blue-chip (four and five-star) prospects. They have also landed multiple players in the transfer portal. With over 25 players leaving the program via the NFL draft and the portal, expect to see many new faces in Gainesville in 2023.

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Florida in the top 40 of ESPN’s SP+ rankings after bowl season

The Gators are a top 40 team in ESPN’s post-bowl season SP+ rankings for the 2022 season, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly.

ESPN has released their latest college football SP+ rankings after bowl season, with the Florida Gators coming in as a top 40 team in the country.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 28th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 37.2. Defensively, Florida is the 70th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 27.7. With such contrasting numbers, the Gators’ final 2022 record of 6-7 (including their Las Vegas Bowl loss) makes perfect sense.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains Billy Napier’s first season in charge of the Orange and Blue. Offensively, the Gators were one of the best-rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag], and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] did their jobs behind a talented offensive line led by consensus first-team All-American guard [autotag]O’Cyrus Torrence[/autotag]. Both Richardson and Torrence have declared for the NFL draft. Etienne and Johnson Jr. are expected to be the backbone of the Gators’ offensive identity in 2023.

Florida’s defensive ranking accurately represents the journey the unit took over the course of the season. Sometimes, the defense looked lost and confused. Other times, the defense was locked in and determined to get off the field. They even recorded at least one turnover in all 12 games this season

After their Las Vegas Bowl loss to Oregon State, the Gators turned their attention to the transfer portal and recruiting to continue building the roster in Napier’s image. With over 25 players leaving the program via the NFL draft and the transfer portal, expect to see many new faces in Gainesville in 2023.

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Florida maintains position in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings update

The Gators maintained their top 35 status in the latest SP+ rankings, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. They will play Oregon State in their bowl game.

Having not participated in conference championship week, the Florida Gators maintain their positions at No. 34 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 17th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 39.4. Defensively, Florida is the 78th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 29.1. With such contrasting numbers, it makes sense that the Gators would finish the regular season with a 6-6 record.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains the Orange and Blue’s regular season. Offensively, the Gators were one of the best rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag] and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] did their jobs behind a talented offensive line led by [autotag]O’Cyrus Torrence[/autotag]. Both Richardson and Torrence have declared for the NFL draft and will not participate in the Gators’ bowl game.

Florida’s defensive ranking accurately represents the journey the unit took over the course of the season. Sometimes, the defense looked lost and confused. Other times, the defense was locked in and determined to get off the field. They even recorded at least one turnover in all 12 games this season

The Gators now turn their attention to their opponent for the Las Vegas Bowl opponent, the Oregon State Beavers likely entering the game shorthanded, as multiple players have left the team via the transfer portal, in addition to Richardson and Torrence’s absence.

The Las Vegas Bowl will be played at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. EST with the game broadcast on ESPN.

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Florida leap in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings after Week 11

The Gators make a significant improvement in the latest SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, with Florida State still ranked above them

After their 38-6 win over South Carolina, the Florida Gators sit at No. 28 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings, per Bill Connelly. They came in at No. 37 last week.

Connelly developed the SP+ ranking system in 2008 and, in his own words, is “a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The offensive metric is much kinder to the Orange and Blue than the defensive metric. Offensively, the Gators are the 21st-best team in SP+, with a rating of 37.8. Defensively, Florida is the 69th-best team in SP+, with a rating of 27.7. Not so nice.

The stark difference in the rating properly explains the Orange and Blue’s season thus far. Offensively, the Gators are one of the best rushing teams in the nation. Their three-headed monster of [autotag]Montrell Johnson Jr[/autotag]., [autotag]Trevor Etienne[/autotag] and [autotag]Anthony Richardson[/autotag] rushes behind a talented offensive line led by [autotag]O’Cyrus Torrence[/autotag], a potential first-round draft pick in next year’s draft.

While Florida’s defensive ranking isn’t the best, it has seen drastic improvements since the start of the season. It seems the electric 3rd quarter against Georgia woke up [autotag]Patrick Toney[/autotag]’s side of the ball. They have not allowed a defensive score in six straight quarters, and their pass rush has significantly improved since the dismissal of [autotag]Brenton Cox Jr[/autotag]. from the team after the Georgia game.

Of the Gators’ two remaining opponents, only Florida State (No. 19) is ranked higher in SP+. Vanderbilt comes in at No. 88.

Before the Florida State game, the Gators have to get past Vanderbilt in their final SEC game of the year. That game will be played Saturday in Nashville, with kickoff scheduled for noon EST and the game will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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Here’s ESPN’s SP+ prediction for Florida football this fall

Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings help Gators Wire contributor Sergio De La Espriella place his bet for the Gators regular season win total.

Bill Connelly, ESPN’s college football analytics guru, recently released what his SP+ prediction for every team’s win totals. His model gives the Florida Gators an 86% chance to win at least six games.

For those of you who enjoy gambling on college football, and more on that coming soon here at Gators Wire, the SP+ model gives you an analytical approach toward your bet slip.

The latest SP+ win projections — which averages wins (conference and overall), odds of bowl eligibility and odds of winning at least 11 games — show the Gators to be a middle-of-the-pack team, predicting an average of 7.1 wins and 4.2 SEC wins this season. Seven of their games are expected to cover the spread, with 40% of their games hitting the over, and 26% of their games pushing.

The biggest thing that stands out to me is the Orange and Blue’s 7.1 wins. Tipico Sportsbook currently lists the over/under win total for the Gators at 6.5. The over is priced at +130 while the Under is priced at -160.

Let’s take a look at the Gators’ schedule this season. H = Home. A = Away.

Presumed Wins: USF (H), Eastern Washington (H), Vanderbilt (A), FSU (A).

50/50: Kentucky (H), Tennessee (A), Missouri (H), LSU (H), South Carolina (H), 

Presumed Losses: Utah (H), Georgia (Jax), Texas A&M (A)

Per my predictions, the Gators have four wins, three losses, and five 50/50 games. I personally think the over is the right bet here. Tipico is giving us plus odds, and if my predictions are accurate, then we are looking at three wins from the 50/50 sections.

A hard-fought opening-day loss to Utah could give the Gators momentum to catch a good Kentucky team at home early on. Missouri to me is almost a lock (but you never know with a Year 1 coach) and then you only need one more. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Gators can win at least one of Tennessee, LSU or South Carolina.

I’m a big fan of aligning with Connelly’s SP+ model and saying at least seven wins is realistic. Pair that up with plus odds? Thanks for the money, Tipico!

The Florida Gators open their season at home against the No. 8 Utah Utes on September 3 at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN.

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Where Notre Dame landed on ESPN’s SP+ projections

A bit different from the major polls

The final SP+ projections by ESPN’s Bill Connelly have been released. This metric is based on three main aspects of a team: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. Find out below where Notre Dame ranked among that Top-10.

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