Tag: SP+

Gators slip, still among top 25 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after Week 9 bye

Florida lost a little ground in SP+ rankings after taking the week off but ESPN’s computer model is still bullish on the Orange and Blue.

Billy Napier and the Florida Gators had a bye during college football’s Week 9 but that does not mean there was not plenty of gridiron action going on.

While the Orange and Blue used its time off to regroup, the nation’s favorite fall sport once again delivered some exciting results that resulted in some changes in the media’s various polls and rankings. The US LBM Coaches Poll did not see much movement among its top six teams but down the ballot, there were a few shakeups.

Florida might not be making any appearances in the major polls this week, but they remained among the top 25 in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings. After the weekend breather, the Gators saw their stock slip slightly in the SP+ rankings from ESPN, but are still a top-25 team according to that computer model.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, Napier and Co. were ranked 18th out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools with a 13.7 overall rating after a big homecoming win over the Kentucky Wildcats. After the bye this weekend, Florida slipped three spots to No. 21 — still well within the top 25 — with a 13.0 overall rating.

On offense, the team slipped from No. 15 and a 36.1 rating to No. 21 and a 35.3 rating; the defense actually moved up from No. 44 with a 22.8 rating to No. 41, but this week’s rating fell 0.1 points to 22.7.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country at the start of the schedule, inched back up from No. 13 to No. 11 with a 0.4 rating — the same it has had all season.

SP+ rankings top 10 teams

The Texas Longhorns reclaimed the top spot in the SP+ rankings from the now-second-place Ohio State Buckeyes, edging them by 0.5 points in the ratings. The Ole Miss Rebels, Oregon Ducks and Alabama Crimson Tide round out the top five, respectively.

The Georgia Bulldogs come at No. 6, followed by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Penn State Nittany Lions, Miami Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers, respectively, to round out the top 10 schools.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Coming up for Florida

Florida and Georgia face off for a Week 10 rivalry battle in Jacksonville on Saturday, Nov. 2 with kickoff slated for 3:30 p.m. ET. The pregame festivities will be featured on SEC Nation and the game will be broadcast on ABC.

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Gators crack SP+ rankings top 20 after beating Kentucky in Week 8

Believe it or not, the computer models are feeling very bullish on the Florida Gators after the Kentucky win — specifically ESPN’s SP+.

Billy Napier finally got the results he had been looking for on Saturday, and it could not have been timed any better.

Coinciding with Florida football’s annual homecoming weekend, the Gators defended the Swamp against the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 8 and ran up a 48-20 final score to earn their fourth win of the season and second in Southeastern Conference play.

The Orange and Blue witnessed the true beginning of the [autotag]DJ Lagway[/autotag] era, whose arm pieced the ‘Cats defense with deep throws. The defense also came up strong for the squad including a pick-six to close out the scoring.

As a result of the key victory, Florida saw its stock rise significantly in the SP+ rankings from ESPN.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, Napier and Co. were ranked 25th out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools, with an overall rating of 12.6. After the Week 8 win, Florida is now ranked 18th — an improvement of seven spots — with a 13.7 overall rating.

On offense, the team moved back from No. 17 with a 35.7 rating to No. 15 with a 36.1 rating while the defense inched up from No. 46 to No. 44 despite the rating falling from 23.2 to 22.8. The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country at the start of the season, remained at No. 13 after a checkered performance against Kentucky.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes took over the top spot this week after the Texas Longhorns took their first loss of the season, falling to No. 2. The Ole Miss Rebels, Georgia Bulldogs — who beat Texas — and Oregon Ducks round out the top five, respectively.

The remainder of the top 10 is occupied by the Penn State Nittany Lions, Alabama Crimson Tide, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Tennessee Volunteers and Miami Hurricanes, respectively.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Coming up for Florida

The Gators are off next week due to their bye week. The next matchup for Florida will be against the Georgia Bulldogs on Nov. 2 in Jacksonville. That game will kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ABC.

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ESPN’s SP+ prediction for Florida’s home coming game vs. Kentucky

SP+ favors the Gators by a hair against Kentucky this weekend in the Swamp.

Florida football prepares for its annual homecoming game this weekend, with the Kentucky Wildcats serving as this year’s opponent inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The Gators welcome the ‘Cats to the Swamp amidst another frustrating season for Billy Napier’s squad, which enters the matchup an even 3-3 overall with a 1-2 mark in Southeastern Conference play. The next five opponents on the schedule are top-25 programs — four currently in the top 10 — so this is an important game for the Orange and Blue.

The Wildcats have also dealt with mediocrity bringing an identical overall tally into play but only one win in three tries against SEC opponents. Last week, Kentucky was upset by the surprising Vanderbilt Commodores at home.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for Week 8 of college football, which narrowly favors UF with a 56% chance of victory by a margin of 2.3 points. The computer model projects a final score of 28.5.

Napier and Co. sit at No. 23 out of 134 FBS schools (12.6 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while Mark Stoops’ team is 23rd (12.8 overall rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Coming up for the Gators

The Gators host the Wildcats inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, for this year’s homecoming game. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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Florida football remains in SP+ rankings top 25 after Week 7 loss

The Gators are still a top-25 team in ESPN’s SP+ rankings despite the loss to the Vols. It’s good to see the computer model recognize a strong effort.

It was a battle to the final play, but in the end, the Florida Gators fell to the Tennessee Volunteers in college football’s Week 7 in Knoxville, sending the Orange and Blue to an even 3-3 overall record but just 1-2 against Southeastern Conference foes.

Certainly, the overtime loss was a gut punch for Billy Napier — whose team held a two-score lead in the second half before losing their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury — there were plenty of bright spots in the game for Florida fans. The defense put on its best performance of the season, which kept the Gators on pace with a top-10 team for 60-plus minutes.

While some of the human re-ranks have not been kind to Florida following the rivalry loss, the computer models have been much more friendly. That includes ESPN’s SP+ which saw the Gators slide but still maintain their spot among the top 25 teams in the nation.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, Napier and Co. were ranked 23rd out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools, with an overall rating of 14.2. After the Week 7 loss, Florida is now ranked No. 25 with a 12.6 overall rating.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country a few weeks ago, slipped again from No. 8 to No. 13 after a performance against Tennessee that left something to be desired.

On offense, the team moved down from No. 10 with a 38.0 rating to No. 17 with a 35.7 rating while the defense bumped up from No. 49 to No. 46 with a 23.2 rating.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Texas Longhorns remain in the top spot in this week’s SP+ rankings, followed by the Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide, Ole Miss Rebels and Georgia Bulldogs rounding out the top five.

The remainder of the top 10 is occupied by the Penn State Nittany Lions, Oregon Ducks, Miami Hurricanes, Tennessee Volunteers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, respectively.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Coming up for the Gators

The Gators host the Kentucky Wildcats inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, for this year’s homecoming game. Kickoff is set for 7:45 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on the SEC Network.

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Predicting the Mississippi State vs. Georgia with ESPN’s SP+ model

ESPN predicts the winner, score of Georgia football versus Mississippi State

For people that trust technology more than people when it comes to making predictions, this is for you: SP+, a statistical model made by ESPN (subscription required) predicted almost every detail of the game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. the Georgia Bulldogs.

SP+ is a model created by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly to predict the outcome of college football games. “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to Connelly. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.”

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

The model has predicted the Georgia will win 43-13 at home vs. Mississippi State. This means that, despite the blowout, Georgia won’t cover the spread of -33.5. Regardless of the score, the model has predicted Georgia has a 97% chance of winning. There are several reasons that Mississippi State could cover against Georgia, and the AI model supports that thinking.

Here’s what SP+ predicts for Florida at Tennessee in Week 7

The Gators have quite a hill to climb to overcome the Rocky Top crew this coming weekend.

The Southeastern Conference schedule picks back up for Florida football in Week 7 as the Gators travel to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers in what was once a thrilling SEC rivalry.

The Orange and Blue defended its home turf from the invading UCF Knights last weekend to give the team a 3-2 overall record, plus the 1-1 mark it had already amassed prior. The Vols lost their first game of the season at the Arkansas Razorbacks, but have still managed to remain in the top 10 of the US LBM Coaches Poll with a 4-1 overall mark and an identical 1-1 tally in SEC play.

Looking ahead, ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his SP+ predictions for the upcoming slate of games, which favor the home team with a 76% chance of victory by a margin of 11.2 points. The computer model projects a final score of 34-23.

Compare that with the spread for the game (UT, -15.5 points) for a difference of 4.3 from the betting lines.

Napier and Co. sit at No. 23 out of 134 FBS schools (14.2 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into Saturday’s affair while the Vols are eighth (22.9 overall rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Next up for Florida

The Gators head to Knoxville next week to resume Southeastern Conference play against Tennessee. Kickoff is slated for 7 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

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Kentucky is ranked 18th in ESPN’s SP+ rankings after bye week

Kentucky football is ranked inside the top 20 in the latest SP+ rankings from ESPN.

There are a number of ways in which the teams of college football are ranked each week. In the latest US LBM Coaches Poll, Kentucky football came in just outside the top 30. In the AP Top 25, they were still top 40. However, in ESPN’s SP+ rankings (subscription required), they are top 20.

The SP+ ranking was designed by analyst Bill Connelly, and he describes it this way:

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

Related: Kentucky’s next opponent pulls a huge upset

In this week’s update, Kentucky comes in solidly at number 18. They’re overall rating is 15.2, while the Texas Longhorns, who are at the top, are rated 30.5.

The Wildcats are ranked as the tenth highest SEC team in the SP+ rankings. Vanderbilt, who Kentucky plays next, ranks 63rd despite their win over the Alabama Crimson Tide this weekend.

Gators leap in ESPN’s SP+ rankings top 25 after beating UCF

Florida football is now a top-25 team in the eyes of ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

Florida football prevailed over the UCF Knights Saturday night in the Swamp, 24-13, to move over the .500 mark for the first time this fall. It also gave the Gator Nation a glimpse of how well this team can play when hitting on all cylinders.

While it was an important win for [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] and Co. — especially since it relieved a modicum of pressure from the head coach’s hot seat — the grueling schedule ahead still does not bode well for the third-year skipper who clings to his job by the skin of his teeth.

Nonetheless, the Orange and Blue saw some improvements in the various ratings and rankings updates from around the nation, including ESPN’s SP+ rankings put together by Bill Connelly.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, the Gators were ranked 30th out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision schools, with an overall rating of 11.3. After the Week 6 victory, Florida is now ranked No. 23 with a 14.2 overall rating.

The special teams unit, which spent a few weeks as the top-rated corps in the country, moved back up to No. 5 from No. 8 last week with a 0.4 rating.

On offense, the team moved up from No. 12 with a 37.5 rating to No. 10 with a 38.0 rating while the defense took a big jump from No. 68 to No. 49 with a 24.2 rating, which was oddly 2.2 points lower than last week’s figure.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Texas Longhorns assumed the top spot in this week’s SP+ rankings, followed by the Ohio State Buckeyes, Alabama Crimson Tide, Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels rounding out the top five.

The remainder of the top 10 is occupied by the Penn State Nittany Lions, Oregon Ducks, Tennessee Volunteers, Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame Fighting Irish, respectively.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Next up for Florida

The Gators head to Knoxville next week to resume Southeastern Conference play against Tennessee. Kickoff is slated for 7 p.m. ET and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.

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Florida jumps into ESPN SP+ top 30 while on bye in Week 5

Florida moved ahead of Week 6 opponent UCF in the post-week 5 SP+ rankings from ESPN, but the Gators special teams unit is no longer at No. 1.

Although the Florida Gators didn’t play a game over the weekend, ESPN’s SP+ rankings continue to adjust based on the play of the other 133 programs in the country.

Following the Week 5 bye, Florida heads into a Week 6 matchup against the UCF Knights. The Knights are a formidable opponent, but a big loss to the Colorado Buffaloes has UCF sliding down the SP+ rankings, from No. 29 to No. 38.

That shakeup puts Florida ahead of UCF in this week’s rankings. Check out the SP+ predictions for Saturday’s contest here.

Florida football’s SP+ ranking, rating

Last week, the Gators were ranked No. 33 out of 134 schools with an overall 10.3 rating. After the bye, they now rank No. 30 with an 11.3 overall rating.

Florida’s special teams remain ranked in the top 10 at No. 8 with a 0.4 rating but are no longer the in top spot on the list. On offense, the team moved up from No. 13 with a 36.7 rating to No. 12 with a 37.5 rating while the defense dropped from No. 62 to No. 68 with a 26.6 rating — 0.2 lower than last week’s figure.

SP+ Top 10 Teams

The Ohio State Buckeyes are now in the top spot of the SP+ rankings after Week 5, followed by the, Texas Longhorns, Alabama Crimson Tide, Ole Miss Rebels and Tennesse Volunteers, respectively.

The Penn State Nittany Lions, Georgia Bulldogs, Oregon Ducks, Missouri Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish round out the top 10, in that order.

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida is back in The Swamp for an in-state matchup against UCF in Week 6. The last time the Gators and Knights faced off came during a transition period for the Orange and Blue and ended in a 29-17 victory for UCF.

The Knights have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, and Florida’s defense is once again a major concern.

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Florida football favored over UCF in SP+ predictions for Week 6

ESPN senior writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ model projects Florida to beat UCF and cover the spread in a high-scoring affair.

Bill Connelly, the SP+ guru and originator at ESPN, posted his model’s Week 6 predictions, and the Florida Gators are favored over the UCF Knights.

Connelly’s model has Florida winning at home by a projected margin of 5.1 points. It also gives the Gators 62% odds to win and projects a final score of 34-29.

The model suggests that Florida will cover the spread (UF, minus-1) with a 4.1 spread differential (projected margin plus official spread). The over-under is set at 59.5, with a differential of 3.2 (projected score of both teams minus O/U).

Napier and Co. sit at No. 30 out of 134 FBS schools (11.3 overall rating) in the SP+ rankings coming into the Week 6 matchup while the Knights are No. 38 (8.7 rating).

About SP+ predictions

“SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing,” according to ESPN. “It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is.

“It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

Up next for the Gators

Florida is back in The Swamp for an in-state matchup against UCF in Week 6. The last time the Gators and Knights faced off came during a transition period for the Orange and Blue and ended in a 29-17 victory for UCF.

The Knights have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, and Florida’s defense is once again a major concern.

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