In the bronze medal match, G Luka Doncic‘s Slovenia will take on G Patty Mills‘ Australia Saturday. The game is set to tip at 7 a.m. ET inside the Saitama Super Arena. Below, we preview the Slovenia vs. Australia odds and lines, and make our best Summer Olympics bets, picks and predictions.
Superstar Doncic lost his first career international game and is now 17-1 with his national team. He’ll draw another tough match after losing to F Evan Fournier and the French team in the semifinals.
Australia is in the bronze medal game because it was absolutely torn apart by Team USA in a 97-78 defeat. The Aussies only trailed 45-42 at the half but were outscored by 22 points in the third quarter, which ultimately did them in and knocked them out of the single-elimination tournament.
Slovenia vs. Australia: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:42 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Australia +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Slovenia -133 (bet $133 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Australia +2.5 (-115) | Slovenia -2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 180.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Slovenia vs. Australia: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Serbia 85, Australia 78
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” on SLOVENIA -133 as Doncic will, by far, be the best player on the court. Slovenia lost by one point to a French team full of numerous NBA players including C Rudy Gobert and Fournier.
While Slovenia has the superstar, it also has 7-foot C Mike Tobey, who has played well for most of the tournament. Behind Doncic’s passing and Tobey’s height, the duo has been lethal in this tournament.
Australia does have Mills, but he likely won’t be enough. Even with G Matthew Dellavedova, there’s not enough size in their backcourt to slow down Doncic.
Sticking F Matisse Thybulle is an interesting option to defend Doncic, but we’ve seen Doncic destroy some of the NBA’s best defenders. It’s unlikely Thybulle will slow down the Slovenian.
Against the spread (ATS)
BET SLOVENIA -2.5 (-105) as the spread doesn’t do the difference between these two teams justice. While both sides ran through their Group Stage games, Australia struggled with Italy.
Slovenia had few issues until facing France, which is really good and should have a real shot at downing Team USA in the gold medal game.
Assuming that aggression from Doncic comes out as his international resume is on the line, expect a game that’s separated by more than just two points.
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 180.5 (-105) as the Australians will be a strong defensive side and should impose its will. Thybulle, G Dante Exum and Dellavedova are solid defenders and should be able to slow down Slovenia.
While I still expect Slovenia to win given the Australian’s lacking offense, it should be a low-scoring game. Every game Australia has played in has been Under 180.
While Slovenia is a talented offensive side, I’d still expect them to struggle at times. This is the best value bet in the game.
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