Coach Dan Mullen has gone 21-5 in his first two seasons as the coach at UF but there’s one hump he yet to overcome: winning the SEC East.
Dan Mullen has gone 21-5 in his first two seasons as the coach of the Gators, but there’s one hump Florida has yet to overcome during his tenure: winning the SEC East.
This could be the year to do it. UF returns its starting quarterback in Kyle Trask, several experienced receivers and most of its defense. Meanwhile, Georgia — who has won the division the last three seasons — has to replace quarterback Jake Fromm, and Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman, the player expected to do so, is opting out of the season.
The East feels up in the air, even more so now. With that in mind, how does ESPN’s Bill Connelly see the division race going down? Here’s what he wrote about the Gators in his preview.
Head coach: Dan Mullen (21-5, third year)
2019: 11-2 (6-2), seventh in SP+
2020 projection: 8-2, fifth
Five best returning players: CB Marco Wilson, S Shawn Davis, QB Kyle Trask, TE Kyle Pitts, LT Stone Forsythe
Your view of Florida’s place in the national title race this fall is almost 100% determined by your view of Kyle Trask. That isn’t exactly profound — quarterback is the most important position in any team sport, of course — but Trask is a hard player to figure out.
After taking over for the injured Feleipe Franks last year, Trask posted a 25-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio and finished 10th in the country in Total QBR. But he thrived at least partially because of the game plan. His passer rating was 169.6 on first down, 148.0 on second and 139.2 on third, and Florida ranked only 53rd in blitz downs success rate. When conditions were favorable, he thrived. When they weren’t, he didn’t. And that was with Van Jefferson and Freddie Swain, last year’s top wideouts. They’re both now gone.
You have to go back to 2015, with Alabama’s Jake Coker, to find the last time a team won the national title without a surefire first-round talent behind center. Coker had the nation’s best defense at his disposal, and 2014 champion Cardale Jones had a crazy-good run game for distracting defenses. Florida’s defense will certainly be good, but will the Gators have enough going for them to make a run if Trask doesn’t enjoy a Joe Burrow-like senior leap? In this year of uncertainty, will continuity — a third-year coaching staff that has remained mostly intact, plus a second-year starting QB and strong overall returning production numbers — make up for whatever the Gators might lack in star power compared to other contenders?
I don’t know that answer, but I do know there’s still a lot to like about Mullen’s Gators. The offensive line returns three starters and adds Mississippi State transfer Stewart Reese and his 33 career starts. The receiving corps still features efficient tight end Kyle Pitts and big-play threats in Trevon Grimes, Jacob Copeland, Kadarius Toney and Penn State transfer Justin Shorter. And the defense could be scary.
Coordinator Todd Grantham can get a little predictable in his aggression at times, but he’s brought results: He inherited a defense that ranked 33rd in defensive SP+ and improved it to 17th in 2018 and seventh in 2019. With most of last year’s two-deep back, Florida starts out this year projected third. Without Jonathan Greenard, Grantham needs a new ace pass-rusher, but he’s still got end Jeremiah Moon, and his linebackers are dynamite. So is a secondary that includes safety Shawn Davis and corner Marco Wilson.
The biggest question is the offensive run game. Florida was a dismal 107th in rushing success rate, which put a lot of pressure on Trask to make plays on early downs. The line is much more experienced this year, but a back still needs to step up, be it junior Dameon Pierce, Miami transfer Lorenzo Lingard or someone else. If they can run the ball and defend as well as it seems they could, Trask could certainly play at a Cokerian level and lead a Playoff push.
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