Jared Goff injured his hand early vs. Cowboys but says he’s fine

Jared Goff remained in the game after injuring his hand, indicating afterwards that it’s not a concern.

Jared Goff didn’t exactly have a stellar performance against the Cowboys, throwing an interception and gaining only 284 yards passing on 51 attempts. He and the Rams offense got nothing going until late in the game, which is when they scored 14 of their 21 points.

The final score of 44-21 doesn’t accurately portray how lopsided the game was, because the Cowboys controlled every aspect of it from start to finish. Goff was under pressure often and got no help from the running game, which led to an underwhelming showing at AT&T Stadium.

Sean McVay revealed after the loss that Goff injured his hand early in the game, but it doesn’t seem to be a concern. He was never pulled from the game and insisted afterwards that he’s OK.

“I saw him just continue to compete,” McVay said of how Goff played. “Got his hand banged up and just as a gutsy competitor, remained out there with his teammates finding a way even though – I’m always interested in how we continue to compete, even when the game was out of hand, just to see guys just continue to battle, have some pride about it. I thought Jared did a nice job.”

McVay didn’t know which specific play the injury happened on, but said “he did it earlier in the game.”

When asked how his hand was feeling, Goff simply said “my hand is fine,” indicating it’s no big deal and won’t keep him off the field moving forward.

Sean McVay shares his thoughts on coin-toss controversy vs. Cowboys

Sean McVay and Jared Goff were both confused by the coin-toss mix-up before the Cowboys-Rams game.

Sunday’s game between the Rams and Cowboys got off to an unconventional and bizarre start at AT&T Stadium. After the Cowboys won the coin toss, Dak Prescott told the official that Dallas wanted to kick off in the first quarter.

By saying that, he also gave the Rams the option to choose what they wanted to do to begin the second half: kick or receive. The Rams, of course, chose to receive the second-half kickoff, but they didn’t end up getting the ball as they expected to.

Because Prescott said “defer” after also saying the Cowboys wanted to play defense, the NFL reviewed the situation and corrected it. Dallas got the ball to start the second half as Prescott intended, preventing the Rams from getting an extra possession.

The score wound up being 44-21, so the mix-up probably wouldn’t have changed the outcome, but Sean McVay was asked about it after the game and shared his thoughts on what happened.

“The way that I interpreted it from the start was, they won the toss and they chose to kick in the first half, so I immediately asked the refs, tried to get the clarification,” McVay said. “We were under the impression that we were going to be able to receive the second half kick as well. I guess they went to New York. They had a microphone and they said they heard the word “deferred.” I found out right before the start of the second half, so we were always under the assumption we were going to get that kick, be able to receive that kick coming out of the half and I was told right before that that wasn’t the case.”

That sort of change can definitely impact a coach’s game plan. There’s a big difference between having to kick off to start the second half and getting the ball first, especially when trailing by 21 points as the Rams were.

Jared Goff was also confused by the situation and was under the impression that the Rams would begin the second half with the ball, which turned out not to be the case. Goff, Eric Weddle and Johnny Hekker were all holding back smiles and laughs when the coin toss played out, indicating they knew Prescott messed up.

They knew what he meant, but the rulebook interpreted it differently.

“I think by rule that’s what it is – we would get the ball in the second half, but I do think he may have then corrected himself and then said defer,” Goff said after the game. “I don’t quite remember exactly, but we knew what he meant, but by the letter of the law, I think that if he does say kick, that is a rule. I don’t know the intricacies of that rule well enough, but they said that he did correct himself and say ‘defer’ after that.

“We had talked to the referees the whole game in the first half, and we were told we would get it in the second half. I don’t think that would have changed much with the outcome of the game, but it was something a little weird, definitely.”

The Rams were dominated in every phase of the game and could do nothing right until it was too late and the Cowboys put it out of reach, so a coin-toss gaffe was hardly their biggest issue. Receiving the kick in both halves would’ve been helpful, but certainly not enough to change the outcome of the game.

Five takeaways from the Rams’ 44-21 loss in Dallas

The Rams suffered a brutal defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys this week. Here’s a few takeaways from the loss.

The Rams failed to show up in Week 15 in a must-win game against the Dallas Cowboys. They were dominated on both sides of the ball in a 44-21 rout by the Cowboys. Here’s a few takeaways from the Rams’ likely season-ending loss in Dallas.

Rams never recovered from disastrous second quarter

The Rams might as well have just stayed in Los Angeles this week. It didn’t look like they had any desire to try and beat the Cowboys this week.

The Rams scored a touchdown early in the quarter. That was the extent of positive things to happen to the Rams in said quarter. Former Ram Tavon Austin scored a 59 yard touchdown the following drive on a play where Dante Fowler could have had a sack and Taylor Rapp leveled the man defending Austin.

Next, the Rams went three-and-out, but Hekker was able to pin the Cowboys at their own three yard line. That didn’t matter. Dallas embarked on an eight minute, 14 play drive that resulted in a touchdown. The Rams got the ball back right after the two minute warning, and Goff tossed a brutal interception on the second play of the drive.

Then came the icing on the cake. After stopping Dallas on third down following the interception, Michael Brockers was called for illegal use of hands and the Cowboys scored a touchdown on the next play.

Neither side of the ball picked it up in the second half until the Rams had two garbage-time touchdown drives. It was a quarter that basically ended the Rams’ season. The Rams never recovered from a 59 yard touchdown by Tavon Austin.

Pages: 12345

Instant analysis of Rams’ 44-21 loss to the Cowboys

The Rams’ season is likely over after a devastating blowout loss in Dallas.

The Los Angeles Rams traveled to Dallas riding a two-game win streak after thrashing the Seattle Seahawks last week. They faced a Cowboys team that had lost four of their last five games and hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record all season. It seemed like we were trending towards an easy victory for the Rams.

Quite the opposite happened. The Rams were lifeless on both sides of the ball and Dallas cruised to an easy 44-21 victory. Dallas totaled nearly 500 total yards on offense and made Jared Goff’s as difficult as possible on defense. The loss makes it nearly impossible for the Rams to make the playoffs and doesn’t mean much for the Cowboys’ playoff implications.

The Rams lost control of the football game in the second quarter and failed to get back into it. They didn’t look like they belonged in the same league as the Cowboys. It was the second time in the Rams’ last four games that they were dismantled on both sides of the ball.

Here’s our analysis of the likely season-ending loss.

Player of the game: Johnny Hekker

It says a lot about a blowout loss when the punter is the player of the game. Hekker felt like the only Ram who was trying on Sunday. Hekker punted five times and averaged over 55 yards per punt. One punt went for 67 yards and another pinned the Cowboys at their own three yard line. He even completed a pass for a first down. Hekker gave both the offense and the defense chances to succeed on Sunday.

Stat of the game: 143

143 was the difference in offensive yards between the Rams and Cowboys in the second quarter. The Cowboys scored a touchdown on all three of their possessions in the quarter. The Rams were lifeless on both sides of the ball after a touchdown early in the quarter, and Goff threw a brutal interception that set the Cowboys up for a touchdown late in the quarter. The game, and the season as a result, fell apart in that second quarter.

Game Notes

This has to be the ugliest performance by the Rams all season. The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and getting manhandled by them could be more of a result of them just being that good. The Cowboys have been lifeless over the past few weeks. it’s embarrassing that the Rams were the ones who looked lifeless in this game.
Jared Goff failed to receive much protection from his offensive line and played horrible as a result. Goff has proven that he can play at a high level in this league, but it feels like he needs a perfect offense around him to do so. It is worth noting that Goff suffered a hand injury late in the second quarter and looked visibly affected by it. That being said, he wasn’t playing great before the injury, and he was able to make some solid throws in garbage time.
Tyler Higbee’s hot streak continued this week. Higbee set a career high in receptions with 12 and had over 100/yards for the third straight week. If Higbee plays like this for the duration of his recent contract extension, he’ll be worth the money.
Former Ram Tavon Austin’s 59 yard touchdown early in the second quarter was a direct result of two mistakes by the Rams. Early in the play, Dante Fowler had a chance to sack Dak Prescott and failed. Down the field, Taylor Rapp collided with Darious Williams and left Austin wide open as a result.
The Rams also had a chance to hold the Cowboys to three points after Goff’s second quarter interception, but Michael Brockers was called for illegal use of the hands after a third down stop and the Cowboys scored a touchdown on the next play. The Rams never recovered.
Starting cornerback Troy Hill left the game in the first quarter with a thumb injury. Darious Williams stepped in as a result, and didn’t do much to impress at all. It was a disastrous performance by the Rams on defense. Hill’s absence was felt, but it seems unlikely the Rams win this game with him.
The stats will look a little deceiving today, as many of the Rams padded their stats in garbage time. The Rams had 135 yards and two touchdowns on their last two drives of the game. They were empty numbers.
To make the playoffs, the Rams need to win their remaining games against San Francisco and Arizona while the Minnesota Vikings have to lose their last two games against Green Bay and Chicago. Neither scenario is likely. Barring a miracle, the Rams won’t be playing in January.

Sean McVay says he’s ‘learning a lot’ from overcoming Rams’ injuries

The Rams have gotten excellent contributions from backups after starters went down with injuries.

In the last two years, the Rams have had excellent luck on the injury front. They’ve suffered very few significant injuries, not landing many key starters on injured reserve. That’s partly due to luck, but it’s also a testament to the job the training staff does with players.

This season hasn’t been that way, though. Aqib Talib and John Johnson were both placed on injured reserve, and Joseph Noteboom and Brian Allen suffered season-ending injuries. It’s forced the Rams to thrust backups into starting roles, which has been a challenge for Sean McVay.

Obviously no coach wants to have to deal with injuries, but McVay has learned from this challenge.

“It’s been different, but it’s been something that inevitably you have to be able to deal with. I think it’s been a great learning experience for myself. You continue to gain the appreciation for the accumulation of experience as you just learn and navigate through the inevitable – good and bad times that come with being in this role. I think what it does give you is a perspective and an appreciation for how healthy we’ve been able to stay the first couple of years. Then when you look around, some of these things are not really preventable and that’s what you have to be able to deal with. I think it’s been a great opportunity to see guys continue to get opportunities, maximize those chances that they’ve gotten and us to work through some things that we haven’t had a chance to before. I know I’m learning a lot and you kind of appreciate it. It certainly gives you a better perspective on what’s been really, some unique things that we’ve been able to have taken place over our first couple of years – in terms of the health that we’ve had.”

In addition to those other players landing on injured reserve, the Rams have also been without Gerald Everett for the last two weeks, and he’ll miss Sunday’s game, as well. Rob Havenstein has been sidelined with a knee injury, as well, and is doubtful for Week 15.

Bobby Evans has played extremely well in Havenstein’s place, and the last two weeks, Tyler Higbee has caught seven passes for at least 100 yards each game. It’s contributions like those that make McVay appreciate the Rams’ depth.

3 ways Rams’ version of wide zone presents problems for Cowboys

The Los Angeles Rams’ offense, designed by head coach Sean McVay, is not a complicated one but it is an incredibly difficult scheme to stop. The roots of McVay’s offensive concepts go back to Bill Walsh and Mike Shanahan, but the structure of the …

In the Wing-T and other offenses of its day, the offense would have 4 or 5 plays, each built off of the others, designed to take advantage of whatever the defense was doing to try to stop them. If the defense was overplaying to the outside, to stop the Buck Sweep, the offense would run Power, and if the defense was fast flowing to the play side to stop Power or Buck Sweep, the offense would run counter. This series based offensive approach puts defenses in position to be wrong, no matter how they play.

McVay, like Shanahan before him, has built his old-school offense around the Wide Zone running play, with play-action concepts built off of it. But he has added elements of spread teams, and college offenses in order to create an attack that is simple to execute yet difficult to stop.

The bread-and-butter play for the Rams, as mentioned, is wide zone. On wide zone the offensive line sets up a series of combination blocks, utilizing double teams to secure the defensive line at the first level, before one member of each double team breaks off to block a linebacker or defensive back at the second level of the defense.

The running back then makes a defined read, starting with the furthest outside defender on the line of scrimmage, to tell him whether to “bounce” the ball to the outside, “bend” it back inside, or “bang” it right down the middle.

Even without any window dressing this is a difficult play to stop, and has been the base run of many dominant offenses the last 30 years. But McVay gives the defense a lot more to worry about. He utilizes compressed formations, where the wide receivers have reduced splits away from the offensive line, as well as jet motion on a majority of the offense’s snaps from under center.

The compressed formations create college-style wide and short sides on the field, creating space to the outside that isn’t normally there on the NFL field. Additionally, these splits shorten the amount of distance his wide receivers have to cover in order to help block linebackers or safeties, which accomplishes a goal that every running game holds, make corners tackle.

On the below play, McVay combines these advantages of compressed formations, with the misdirection and indecision created by using Jet Motion to window dress what is really just a very simple wide zone run.

When Gurley cuts back, he’s left one-on-one with the backside corner and even though he isn’t able to break the tackle, because its a corner rather than a linebacker or defensive lineman he is able to get a solid 6-yard gain on first down.

The backside player doesn’t account for the jet action from the wide receiver, and doesn’t hesitate to make sure he maintains contain, so McVay knows that based on the way the defenders are playing, he should be able to have success on the jet sweep.

On this play, the right side of the Rams offense is executing the Wide Zone to that side, while the back side subtly executes the jet sweep, and wide receiver Josh Reynolds is able to run free for a twelve yard gain mostly untouched.

In addition to using the jet sweep off of wide zone, McVay loves to create opportunities in the passing game built off of wide zone.

On the below play, the Rams are using split flow on wide zone play action, with boot action from quarterback Jared Goff, the three level passing concept on this play is the most common boot combination at all levels of football.

Goff takes the easy completion for the 15-yard gain here on the over-route.

These are just a few examples of how the Rams can make defenders heads spin, and for three years they have created explosive plays with high regularity.

If the Cowboys are going to beat Los Angeles on Sunday, they are going to have to sort out all of this organized chaos, and lock down the Rams offense.

[vertical-gallery id=636009][vertical-gallery id=636168][lawrence-newsletter]

Play-action chief among Rams key tendencies Cowboys must survive

The Rams have specialized in play-action passing under head coach Sean McVay. The Cowboys will need to adapt in their Week 15 matchup.

The Dallas Cowboys enter their Week 15 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on a three-game losing streak. The Rams however are on a streak of their own, winning two straight and coming off a 28-12 blowout victory against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14. The Cowboys currently lead the NFC East with a record of 6-7, while the Rams are fighting for a wildcard birth in the NFC West at 8-5. As it stands, both teams are riding a drastically different set of circumstances regarding playoff scenarios.

When looking at the Rams in 2019, it is easy to dismissIss their accomplishments at this point in the season. One year removed from a Super Bowl appearance, many analysts pegged them as a perennial championship contender. It is fair to say they have underachieved but nonetheless, they are still a formidable opponent and as the Cowboys will find out on Sunday, they certainly have a preference when it comes to play calling.

Play-action passing

The Rams are an interesting team to study. Simply put, their entire offense runs on the core principle of setting up an effective play-action passing attack. Head coach Sean McVay has built his team around this concept and after diving into some key stats and play tendencies this becomes even more apparent. First things first though, a look at the Rams’ favorite personnel package on offense.

In the modern NFL, most teams have favored 11-personnel, which features three wide receivers on the field. The Rams are no exception, opting to use the package on 418 of their plays in 2019. According to charting from Sports Info Solutions, this accounts for 83 percent of the Rams’ totals plays this season; one of the highest rates in the league. With this in mind, it is clear to see how the Rams present themselves to opponents. But while personnel usage isn’t a mystery, the real question is, how do they approach their play-action game? One of the answers could be in their play-calling tendencies.

From an under-center look the Rams have passed the ball 176 times. But out of 476 under-center playcalls, their preference has been to run the ball (300 plays). In 2019, the Rams have rushed from under center 63 percent of the time. In this aspect the Rams have rushed at one of the highest rates, but across the league, rushing from under center is heavily favored.

Overall, the Rams have been one of the best teams at utilizing play-action in the past. In McVay’s first year as coach the Rams ranked No. 2 in play-action usage (29 percent) and averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt via Football Outsiders. Those numbers took a jump in the following season, with the team ranking No. 1 in usage (36 percent) and No. 2 in yards per attempt at 9.4.

In 2019, the Rams’ play-action output has fallen off a bit. Heading into Week 15, they have averaged 7.8 yards on play-action passes at a rate of 27 percent. Even so, play-action still remains a crucial aspect of their game.

To recap, here is a quick review of the Rams’ offensive tendencies,

Favor 11-personnel (83 percent of total plays)
Rush 63 percent of the time from under center
No. 2 in pass attempts from under center (176)
No. 9 in play-action pass rate (average 7.8 yards)

What stands out the most from this is the rush rate from under center. Conventional wisdom would suggest the Rams rush at a high rate to make play-action passing more effective. From an analytical point of view, the data suggests this is simply not true. Some studies show play-action passes work no matter how well a team runs the football.

This chart expresses a similar notion in regards to passing from under center and rushing volume. Teams that ran more from under center did not see a boost in passing efficiency. Efficiency here is defined as Expected Points Added per pass with data from nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a play based on down, distance to first downs and field position. If this metric serves well, then the Rams are not seeing a return on their passing investments by choosing to rush at a higher rate.

The Rams try to show the same types of offensive looks to keep opposing defenses guessing. By dressing plays to look exactly the same from an execution standpoint, in essence, it could be enough to fool unsuspecting defenses. The Cowboys’ defense has proven to be unreliable as of late, but at the very least they should be prepared for what the Rams’ offense is capable of from under center.

[vertical-gallery id=636009][vertical-gallery id=636168][lawrence-newsletter]

Rams injury report: Gerald Everett trending in wrong direction for Week 15

Gerald Everett seems like he’s on track to miss his third straight game on Sunday.

It’s looking more and more like the Los Angeles Rams won’t have Gerald Everett on Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. He’s missed the last two games with a knee injury and hasn’t even begun practicing, which is obviously bad news for his chances of playing in Week 15.

To make matters worse, Everett has come down with a stomach bug and was sent home early from practice on Thursday.

“Gerald will be out [of practice]. He actually was sick today, as well, so sent him home with a stomach virus,” Sean McVay said before practice.

Tyler Higbee has been a stud in Everett’s absence, going over 100 yards receiving and catching seven passes in each of the last two games. Everett is a key contributor and is difficult to bring down in the open field, but the Rams have managed without him.

Rob Havenstein is moving closer to returning to the field, practicing once again on Thursday – his second straight day as a full participant. McVay still didn’t clarify whether Havenstein will slide back in as the starting right tackle or if that job will remain Bobby Evans’.

Nsimba Webster was a full participant, too, which is a good sign for his availability.

[vertical-gallery id=626775]

Sean McVay on facing Cowboys offense: ‘They’re a nightmare’

Sean McVay knows how difficult it is to defend the Rams.

Sean McVay has faced the Cowboys twice since he took over as head coach of the Rams, and each time, the game was close and competitive. The Rams beat Dallas 30-22 in the divisional round last year, and in 2017, they won 35-30 at AT&T Stadium.

He knows what a handful Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper can be for a defense, and on Sunday, he’ll get another taste of that. There have been some changes on the Cowboys’ offense over the years, but for the most part, it’s the same unit Los Angeles faced in the playoffs.

Despite struggling in recent weeks, the Cowboys are ninth in scoring, first in yards, first in passing and 10th in rushing. In other words, it’s a well-balanced and effective attack.

To McVay, the Cowboys are a “nightmare” and a “real problem” to defend.

“I think Amari Cooper’s having a great year,” McVay said. “You look at just some of the improvements of their receivers as a whole – they’ve got three legitimate receivers. I think Dak’s making great decisions, they’ve always had a great O-line and Zeke’s résumé speaks for himself. Offensively, they’re a nightmare, they’re a real problem to deal with.”

One of the biggest changes the Cowboys made since last time these two teams played was replacing Scott Linehan with Kellen Moore as the team’s offensive coordinator. That’s led to more creativity and better play calling for the Cowboys, which has helped elevate the play of Prescott and Cooper, in particular.

Moore has left McVay impressed so far, and even a bit jealous of the success he’s had in his first season calling plays.

“It’s been impressive. You look at his first year doing it, the success that they’ve had. I wish I had that kind of success that early, it was impressive,” McVay said. “What he’s done, he’s done a good job putting the players in good spots. I think there’s a comfort level. They’ve got an identity, I think that’s as important as anything. The plays are one thing, but when you put your players in position to make plays, that’s the most important. It seems like he’s had a great feel for the game. I’ve been really impressed with him.”

The Rams are facing a lot of pressure this week, needing a win to keep pace in the NFC playoff hunt. A loss and a win by the Vikings over the Chargers would all but end any chance of the Rams making the postseason, facing a two-game deficit with only two to play.

McVay doesn’t see it as pressure, but he and the Rams know the urgency level has been taken up a notch.

“I think every single week, we don’t necessarily look at it as pressure, but it’s an opportunity for us,” McVay said. “It’s a great opportunity to go to Dallas, it’s going to be a great environment, great atmosphere. It’s a very good football team – they’ve got great coaches, great players. We know what the challenge is and we’ve got to have a great week of preparation to see if we can build on a little bit of the momentum that we do have. But, knowing that it’s one game at a time and what we did in the previous weeks won’t help us. We’ve got to be ready to show up when kickoff comes on Sunday.”

With their last three games being decided by eight points or fewer, this matchup is likely to come down to the wire, too.

Rams Preview: Kupp remains threat despite defenses chipping away at McVay

The Rams have struggled on offense in 2019, but how are defenses taking advantage? What do the Cowboys have to guard against Sunday?

For the second straight week, Dallas suffered a brutal loss in a game that was more lopsided than the score would indicate. Yet again, Dallas dug themselves in an early hole, to the point that Chicago had approximately a 75% win probability at halftime. As a result, the Bears keep their playoff hopes alive, and the Cowboys face a similar situation in Week 15.

This season, the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears have been quite comparable. Both have seen their young quarterbacks struggle despite talented supporting casts and offensive-minded head coaches, and they’ve largely been carried by their defensive capabilities. But coming out of 2018, not many would have predicted the Rams’ offense to descend in such a sharp manner.

Sean McVay took the league by storm, and in a league built on copy-catting, completely altered the archetype for what franchises sought in head-coaching candidates. Time will tell if this lasts as more than just a fad, but for now, it’s clear that McVay’s 2019 offense is a shell of its 2018 self.

I’ve always been of the mindset that greatness depends not only on initial aptitude, but an ability to grow and evolve. In a multi-billion dollar industry, if you’re able to find initial success, that’s a damn fine achievement. But maintaining success is what builds a legacy. So when others take note of your accomplishment, you can bet the house that they’re going to study every possible configuration to break that success.

With that in mind, I wondered how NFL defenses attempted to stop the Rams in 2018, and how that might have changed going into 2019. I’m a numbers nerd and not a film grinder, so I had to rely on what I know. Using data from the SIS DataHub, I was able to identify one interesting difference. The Rams typically operate from 1-1 personnel: that is, 3 wide receivers, 1 running back, and 1 tight end. In 2018, when Los Angeles lined up in 1-1 personnel on first down, defenses ran some combination of Cover 3, Cover 4 or Cover 6 about 48% of the time. In 2019, under the same conditions, defenses are now running those zone coverages 63% of the time.

Running a more zone-heavy scheme against the Rams 1-1 personnel would do two things: (1) keeping more players deep would hopefully limit opportunities for big-plays through the passing game, and (2) it would allow defenders to be more active in stopping the Rams potent rushing attack. If successful, we’d see a stark difference in the first-down play results from 2018 to 2019. Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened.

In case it’s been a minute since you’ve had a statistics course, what you’re looking at are box-plots.

The idea is to visualize the yards gained on each first-down play for the Rams, based on the play type. The lines in the middle of the boxes represent the median, while the bottom and top of the boxes represent the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively. The lines on the ends stretch to the smallest and largest values, while points represent plays that are exceptionally rare given the rest of the plays.

Immediately we should notice that for both play types, the median value is lower in 2019 than the 2018 counterpart.

This would indicate the typical first-down play isn’t yielding as high of a return. On top of that, we see that the 75th percentile (top of the box) and the top of the line reach higher in 2018 than 2019, which suggests that the 2019 offense is also lacking the explosiveness we saw last year. It’s unlikely that all of this is attributable to a simple increase in zone-coverage, but it’s possibly one factor in the offensive struggles for Los Angeles.

Despite some of these difficulties, there have still been a few matchups in which Los Angeles has shown glimpses of their ceiling. And if Mitch Trubisky can right the ship enough to beat Dallas, you can be sure Jared Goff is capable of the same.

A key component to stopping the Rams offense will be shutting down Goff’s safety-net, Cooper Kupp.

On the X-axis above, we have the EPA Allowed per Slot Target (i.e. teams to the left defend slot receivers well, teams to the right don’t). On the Y-axis, we see the number of points the Rams scored against said opponent. It’s not hard to see the value Cooper Kupp brings to the Rams offense. He operates primarily out of the slot, and the Rams’ best offensive showings have generally come against teams who struggle in the slot.

So why is this significant? The Cowboys have allowed the ninth-highest EPA per Slot Target. In reality, Cowboys fans could probably have guessed this after watching Cole Beasley on Thanksgiving. Dallas desperately needs to learn from the past, or Kupp will roast them as well.

If you haven’t already, I strongly encourage you to go read Dan Morse’s latest article.

He breaks down some key insights regarding the Cowboys offensive struggles, and specifically where they manifest in the game. His article got me thinking, and so I launched my own inquiry into the volatile nature of this Cowboys squad. My goal was to retroactively observe the Cowboys win probabilities, and compare the games that resulted in wins with those that resulted in losses. What I found confirmed my suspicions.

When it comes to this Cowboys squad, the first-half generally tells the tale. That is, when Dallas has the higher win probability at the half, they’ve managed to hold on and secure the victory. But when they’ve been trailing, they’ve had a much harder time digging out of the hole.

This isn’t entirely surprising, but it does stress the importance of Dallas establishing their presence early, and seizing control of the game-script. Thankfully, despite Dallas’s recent struggles, the remainder of the NFC East also decided to take 2019 off. That isn’t something the Cowboys can rest their laurels on going forward, but for now, it’ll do. With only three games left, the Cowboys control their fate, and that’s all any fan can ask for at this point.

[vertical-gallery id=636168][lawrence-newsletter]