The New Orleans Saints are in a nice little middle ground between competing for a potential playoff spot and having a strong draft pick. As they are now on a 2-0 streak under Darren Rizzi, the favor has gone towards competing for a spot in the playoffs rather than a high pick for some fans, which is completely understandable.
Both sides make sense in this equation, and ultimately it becomes personal preference over all else. With that, we can now take a look at which teams you should be rooting for in either case as we look ahead to the Week 12 bye. Here is a rundown of both options:
In the case of competition
When it comes to trying to compete, the AFC has little to no connection to where the Saints reside and their playoff chances. So, looking at the NFC schedule, the first and foremost issue resides with the other NFC South teams. The Atlanta Falcons are on a bye week as well, which makes things a little difficult as they can’t lose, but they also can’t win so it’s about net even. The two divisional games are:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants:
The decision here is easy, a New York Giants win would put the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4-7 and tied with the Saints, with one remaining matchup between the two teams later this season. In addition, a Giants win does not really put them in the picture yet as they are 2-8, and even if they enter the picture, the Saints have a chance to play them later as well and take back the momentum.
Carolina Panthers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs:
This game is not exceptionally a major issue either way, but obviously a Kansas City Chiefs win would help keep the Carolina Panthers at the bottom of the division and away from the Saints for another week. This would be the preferable outcome, despite many not being fond of the Chiefs.
This covers a divisional route for the Saints, as a wild card appearance is very unlikely at the moment given the bottom seed right now would be the Washington Commanders at 7-4. A monumental collapse from either them or the 7-3 Green Bay Packers would make things easier, but it would still be a difficult hill to climb. For a potential wild card appearance, here is the preferred outcomes:
Chicago Bears beat Minnesota Vikings
There desperately needs to be more parity in the NFC North for this scenario, and with the Minnesota Vikings holding the top wild card spot, a Chicago Bears win would help despite them also being ahead of the Saints here. The ultimate goal is dragging the wild card teams down close enough to where, if the Saints go on a win streak, a spot is attainable.
Dallas Cowboys Beat Washington Commanders
This is a similar notion to the previous game, where the Washington Commanders are the last wild card team right now, and a loss would bring them even closer to the Saints. With the Dallas Cowboys already being beaten by the Saints, they are not a threat if they are tied which they would be in this scenario. While this is certainly an unlikely outcome, it would definitely be preferred for the Cowboys to win in this matchup for the sake of a Saints playoff push.
San Francisco 49ers Beat Green Bay Packers
This matchup is a little different, as both the 5-5 San Francisco 49ers and 7-3 Green Bay Packers remain ahead of the Saints at the time being, and both have a full game lead at least. However, more parity between those teams and none pulling away leaves the Saints with a great opportunity if they continue to win. So, with a 49ers win, they would be 6-5 and the Packers would be 7-4, rather than 5-6 and 8-3 respectively.
Arizona Cardinals Beat Seattle Seahawks
This is where things get wonky, as the Arizona Cardinals lead their division, so the preferred outcome is a Seattle Seahawks loss to prevent them from competing for a wild card spot as they sit at 5-5. This game going either way is not extremely detrimental which is good, as they would just swap places if Seattle won, but Seattle losing would help just a tiny bit more given the game difference between the two.
Philadelphia Eagles Beat Los Angeles Rams
Further to that point, the Los Angeles Rams losing would help keep them lower and allow the Saints to surpass them as soon as Week 13, as a win would put the Saints at 5-7 and the Rams at 5-7, with the Saints’ head-to-head tiebreaker taking effect. Additionally, the Philadelphia Eagles winning is not particularly a big issue as they remain atop the division, and that would keep the Commanders out of division lead contention for another week at least. Somewhat of a win win here if the Rams lose.
In the case of improved draft stock
Now the case of trying to get closer to a better draft pick. There are nine teams ahead of the Saints with better picks, and two of them are also on bye in the Jacksonville Jaguars (No.1 pick currently) and the New York Jets (No.6 pick currently) so they will remain ahead regardless. As for the other teams, here is there games and the optimal outcomes:
Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans
First up, the Tennessee Titans, who sit at 2-8 with one of the higher strength of schedule numbers of the bad teams at .514. They take on the Houston Texans, and while a Titans win does not immediately change where the Saints stand, it would prove to be a big one down the stretch if the Saints go the other direction and start losing more. This would keep things closer at the top (or the bottom perse) and keep the Saints within a game of taking their spot.
New york Giants Beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Not only would this be pretty funny from the standpoint of a division rival losing to a 2-8 New York Giants team, but it would help in the case of draft stock. This is similar to the Titans, where a Giants win does not immediately move the Saints to a better pick, but it keeps things close enough until the Saints get back to playing, rather than the Giants running away with a higher pick. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers going to 4-7 would be difficult, however the Saints have the tiebreaker for now in terms of a higher pick as they lost to Tampa earlier in the year, and have a lower strength of schedule.
Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos
Another 2-8 team, another scenario that falls into the same category. A Las Vegas Raiders win helps keep things within a game at the top, and a Denver Broncos loss does not particularly hurt the Saints chances whatsoever, so this one is completely self-explanatory.
New England Patriots beat miami dolphins
This one is a little bit closer in terms of who should win, as the New England Patriots are at 3-8 and the Miami Dolphins are at 4-6. The Dolphins losing brings them to an equal record with the Saints, and since they have a lower strength of schedule, they would get the higher pick in a tiebreaker. However, they also have an easier strength of schedule than the Patriots as well, meaning they are more likely to win another game or two than New England is. With that said, a Patriots win is slightly better here, but either way is perfectly fine.
Carolina panthers beat kansas city chiefs
While in the competitive version we wanted the Panthers to lose here, a win would help the Saints as it would bring them to even in terms of record, and since they have identical strength of schedules, it would go down to conference and division records which the Saints could pull away in by losing pretty often to close the season.
dallas cowboys beat washington commanders
Finally, we have a situation that transcends the type of team you want to see, and ultimately is a win win. The Dallas Cowboys winning here would bring them to even with the Saints at 4-7, and with the Cowboys having a .525 strength of schedule to the Saints only .486, New Orleans would get the tiebreaker for a better pick. Overall, a win win with a Cowboys victory.
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