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The San Diego State Aztecs (29-6) battle the Alabama Crimson Tide (31-5) Friday in a Sweet 16 battle at KFC Yum! Center . Tip in Loisville is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the San Diego State vs. Alabama odds as we make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
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The Crimson Tide, the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, didn’t cover a 24-point spread in beating No. 16 Texas A&M-CC 96-75 in the 1st round. Alabama then buried Maryland 73-51 and covered as an 8-point favorite. The Tide is is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its 5 postseason games and 1-4 O/U in those battles.
The 5th-seeded Aztecs took down No. 11 Charleston 63-57, covering a 5.5-spread on a last-second foul shot, and then beat 12-seed Furman 75-52 as a 4.5-point favorite. San Diego State is 4-1 ATS in its 5 postseason games and 0-5 O/U. Its strength is defense, ranking 6th in the nation in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive rating metric.
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San Diego State vs. Alabama odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): San Diego State +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Alabama -330 (bet $330 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): San Diego State +7.5 (-110) | Alabama -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 137.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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San Diego State vs. Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 70, San Diego State 64
Moneyline
PASS.
I don’t hate a sprinkle on SDSU (+270) given the value, but the Crimson Tide have shown few flaws and likely made that moneyline value for the No. 5 seed not as good as it seems.
Against the spread
LEAN SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5 (-110).
The Aztecs have covered 4 straight games and won 12 of their last 13.
While SDSU didn’t have many quality non-conference wins, it has dominated its competition in tournament play. Its defense has been on full display, holding its opponent to under 60 in 4 straight postseason games.
Alabama’s strength is also defense, although they rank 18th in adjusted offensive rating. Both teams being strong on the defensive end should result in neither team really pulling away. The Crimson Tide are just 6-8-1 ATS in non-conference play this season as well.
Given the strengths for both teams and the Aztecs likely being a strong public fade, back SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
BET UNDER 137.5 (-110).
Both teams rank in the top-6 defenses in adjusted defensive rating per Kenpom.
One concern is Alabama’s tempo, but it has played teams like Mississippi State and Missouri in postseason play, both ranking outside the top 100 in adjusted tempo, and both games went Under the projected total.
SDSU ranks 263rd in tempo, so it won’t up the pace in this game. Alabama has gone Under in 4 of its last 5 while SDSU had gone Under in 10 straight games. Back the UNDER 137.5 (-110).
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