The San Diego Padres (19-18) and Minnesota Twins (20-17) get together Thursday for the finale of a 3-game series in Minneapolis. First pitch from Target Field is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: tied 1-1
The Padres are 7-5 over their last dozen games. San Diego has yielded 5 runs or fewer in all 5 losses. Friars pitchers have posted a 1.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in May.
The Twins won Wednesday’s game 4-3 in 11 innings. The victory snapped a 3-game losing streak and gave Minnesota just its 4th win in its last 10 games.
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Padres at Twins projected starters
RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Bailey Ober
Darvish (2-2, 3.19 ERA) is tabbed for his 7th start of the season. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 36 2/3 IP.
- Has notched a 4.28 ERA on the road vs. a 2.96 figure at home over the last 3 seasons
- Has pitched through a tougher-than-average slate while giving the Padres solid distance: has gone 6-plus innings in 4 of his last 5 starts
Ober (2-0, 0.98 ERA) makes his 4th start. He owns a 0.87 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 18 1/3 IP.
- Opened the season at Triple-A St. Paul, where he filed a 2.55 ERA in 4 starts
- Owns a 3.51 ERA over 34 MLB starts (2021-23)
- Makes this start on 5 days’ rest, which over his career has netted his best splits (3.21 ERA, .648 OPS allowed)
Padres at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Padres -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Twins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+126) | Twins +1.5 (-152)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Padres at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 5, Twins 4
Moneyline
Peg Ober as due for some regression. The young right-hander yields a lot of fly balls but has not yet allowed a home run. He’s also allowed a mere .217 batting average on balls in play.
The San Diego offense has been going better than Minnesota’s of late.
BACK THE PADRES (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
The lean side of this wager (San Diego) would be more in play at +140 or better, but the line has moved in the other direction Thursday morning.
PASS.
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Over/Under
Analytics on key expected-versus-actual production numbers — on both sides of the ball and for both teams — are mixed. AVOID.
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