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The best part about the NCAA Tournament is upsets, unless, of course, you’re betting the favorites. We’ll take a look at several underdogs who are a good bet to play straight up.
Below, we break down BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list the best 1st-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.
It’s always interesting when a lower seed is favored. That’s not what we mean by upsets. We’ll pick several teams who are underdogs by more than a few points, who are good plays to cover a big number or just win straight up.
Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:41 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.
NC STATE ML (+190) vs. Texas Tech – Thursday, 9:40 p.m.
The Wolfpack are the only team to win 5 games in 5 days to claim the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championship. It’s an impressive feat, but the Wolfpack isn’t likely done.
NC State enters the NCAA Tournament with a lot of confidence after that amazing run, and it is actually the longest winning streak for the Wolfpack this season. And it’s the 1st time NC State has won more than 2 games in a row against Power 6 teams.
Texas Tech has sunk like a stone since the end of January. The Red Raiders lost at TCU on Jan. 30, and they’re actually 6-7 straight up (SU) in the past 13 games. While only 1 of those losses came against a non-NCAA Tournament team, it’s a rather frequent occurrence.
The Red Raiders are just 6-9 in Quad 1 games, while the Wolfpack was just 3-8 in Q1 contests.
If you’re a little more on the conservative side, NC STATE +5.5 (-115) still isn’t a bad play, if you can’t go all the way on the moneyline.
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SAINT PETER’S +21.5 (-110) vs. Tennessee – Thursday, 9:20 p.m.
The Peacocks made a miraculous run to the Elite Eight in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. That team, led by the mustachioed Doug Edert, coach Shaheen Holloway, etc. broke up prior to the 2023 season. Edert transferred to Bryant, Holloway took the Seton Hall job, taking KC Ndefo with him, and Daryl Banks III went to St. Bonaventure.
In other words, those casual fans who see Saint Peter’s, they should know this is a completely different group.
The Volunteers are a No. 2 seed, and they’re fully expected to advance. However, this is an awfully big number for a team coming off 2 consecutive losses. The Vols lost a marquee battle to Kentucky in the regular-season finale on March 9 at Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, 85-81 as an 8.5-point favorite, and then it was throttled 73-56 by Mississippi State in its 1st game in the SEC Tournament.
Tennessee has sharp-shooter Dalton Knecht, who was just 4-of-17 from the field for 14 points in the loss to Hail State. He’ll be looking to dent a Peacocks defense which ranked just 161st in the country, according to covers.com, in 3-pointer defense.
Saint Peter’s allowed teams to shoot 33.3% from behind the arc, and the Peacocks really had a difficult time scoring, going for just 65.9 PPG, one of the lowest totals in the country, while hitting just 39.7% from the field. Still, this is an awfully big number.
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WESTERN KENTUCKY +14.5 (-110) vs. Marquette – Friday, 2 p.m.
The Hilltoppers caught fire in the Conference USA Tournament, roughing up New Mexico State by 20, and belting Middle Tennessee by 31, before easing by UTEP 78-71 in the championship game. Western Kentucky covered all 3 games in the C-USA tourney, it has covered 4 in a row, and the ‘Toppers are 9-3 ATS across the past 12 outings.
The Golden Eagles are a No. 2 seed, but they’re a team which is playing .500 ball across the past 6 games, going 3-3 SU and ATS. Of course, the losses are against Creighton, a No. 3 seed in this tournament, and twice to top overall seed UConn.
The big concern with Marquette is the health of F Oso Ighodaro, who carries a questionable tag due to a knee injury, as well as G Tyler Kolek. The latter suffered an oblique injury Feb. 28 against Providence, and he has been sidelined for the past 6 games. He is listed as probable, so he is expected to face Western Kentucky, but will there be some rust? It’s likely.
As far as Ighodaro is concerned, he banged up his left knee, and missed the final 7 games of the Big East title game loss. And G Stevie Mitchell is also nursing a tender left shoulder injury, so Marquette enters this game banged up. That’s good news for Western Kentucky, and its backers.
JAMES MADISON +5.5 (-110) vs. Wisconsin – Friday, 9:40 p.m.
The Dukes got their season off to a great start with an upset over another Big Ten team, Michigan State. James Madison won 79-76 in overtime in East Lansing on Nov. 6, and it was the first of 28 victories against just 3 losses.
Wisconsin tasted defeat 13 times, and it was really in danger of missing this NCAA Tournament all together before stringing together 3 straight wins in the Big Ten Tournament, including a victory over No. 1 seed Purdue, to get its resume in order. The Badgers went all the way to the title game, falling to Illinois 93-87 on Sunday in a thriller.
This is a tough draw for Wisconsin, though. JMU averages 84.6 PPG, and it shoots at a blistering 47.6% from the field. If there is an Achilles’ heel, it’s free-throw shooting, as the Dukes are a dismal 71.1% from the stripe, leaving some points on the floor. And defensively, James Madison allows teams to hit just 28.8% from behind the arc, and that was 5th in the nation defensively.
The windows are open, North Carolina!
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