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The Kansas City Royals (85-76) and Atlanta Braves (88-71) wrap up a 3-game interleague series Sunday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 3:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Royals vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-0; Atlanta won 3-0 in 2023
The Braves walked it off with a solo HR by Travis d’Arnaud to win 2-1 on Saturday, taking a 1-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets, as they vie for 1 of the 2 remaining NL Wild,Card playoff spots.
Atlanta has won 5 in a row, while going 7-1 across the past 8 games, showing the type of urgency a team needs in a postseason chase. Meanwhile, Arizona is just 2-5 in the past 7 games, and New York has dropped 3 in a row. The Braves and Mets have a make-up doubleheader at Truist Field set for Monday.
The Royals are into the postseason despite going just 3-9 across the past 12 games since Sept. 15. The good news is that Kansas City pitching has allowed just 11 runs in the past 6 games, or 1.8 runs per game (RPG). However, the offense has managed 3 or fewer runs in 9 of the past 10 games, averaging just 1.6 RPG in the 10-game span.
Royals at Braves projected starters
RHP Alec Marsh vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Marsh (8-9, 4.65 ERA) makes his 25th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 124 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 5 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in 4-2 home setback vs. Detroit Tigers Sept. 18
- 2024 road splits: 4-5, 4.66 ERA, 63 2/3 IP, 33 ER, 59 H, 11 HR, 17 BB, 65 K, .241 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 1.19 WHIP in 12 starts
- Last 7 games: 1-3, 5.01 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 34 H, 10 BB, 37 K, 1.36 WHIP
- Has never faced Braves
Morton (8-9, 4.08 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 161 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 4-3 road setbacks vs. Miami Marlins Sept. 20
- 2024 home splits: 5-5, 3.54 ERA, 89 IP, 35 ER, 10 HR, 36 BB, 91 K, .256 OBA, 1.35 WHIP in 16 starts
- Last 7 games: 2-2, 3.12 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 36 H, 19 BB, 44 K, 1.36 WHIP
- Career vs. Royals: 2-2, 4.15 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 29 H, 3 HR, 8 BB, 30 K, 1.22 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 5 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:49 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Braves –250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-105) | Braves -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Royals 2
Moneyline
The Braves (-250) are keeping their foot on the gas, as they close in on a postseason spot, but are way costly. They’ve won 5 in a row, and 7 of the past 8 games, and Morton is a good bet to pitch the home side to a sweep against Marsh and the Royals (+200).
Kansas City has already clinched a spot, and it has looked disinterested this weekend. The Royals are 3-9 in the past 12 games, too, and the offense has struggled to plate runs lately.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The BRAVES -1.5 (+115) are worth a look on the run line.
The Royals have managed just a single run in 2 games in this series, and just 1.6 RPG across the past 10 outings. Morton is likely to keep them down, while Atlanta feasts on Marsh’s offerings, positioning itself well as it inches closer to the playoffs.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-115) is a strong play yet again on Sunday.
The Royals, who have just 1 run in the 1st 2 games of the series, have cashed the Under in 5 of the past 6 games. The Under is 19-6-1 in the previous 26 outings, too.
As far as the Braves are concerned, the Under is 5-0-1 in the past 6 outings. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 starts by Morton, while going 6-2 in his past 8 starting assignments.
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