Tag: Roster Stack

Establishing the 53: Roster Stack, summer edition

Examining the Detroit Lions roster, by stacking the players into levels based on value to the team.

By using a Roster Stack — predicting roles by grouping players by their expected value to the team — to examine the Detroit Lions roster we can get a look at the current front-runners for the 53-man roster as well as how things may change with different approaches to roster construction.

This version of the Lions Roster Stack will break down the roster into seven sections: 1) Impact players, 2) Core players, 3) Projected starters, 4) Role players, 5) Final 12 spots, 6) In the hunt, and 7) Have work to do.

Impact players

These are the players who if removed from the roster, would greatly impact the team’s overall performance.

QB1 Matthew Stafford
WR-Z Kenny Golladay
LT Taylor Decker
C Frank Ragnow
DDE Trey Flowers
CB1A Jeff Okudah
JOKER Tracy Walker

We all saw what happened when Stafford was removed from the Lions in 2019, and while the impact won’t likely be as great if one of the other players in this section goes down, losing any of these players would be a major set back for the team’s 2020 hopes.

Core Players

These players make up the foundation of the team and have a significant weekly role on the roster.

RB1A Kerryon Johnson
RB1B D’Andre Swift
WR-X Marvin Jones
Slot1 Danny Amendola
TE1 T.J. Hockenson
RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai
DT1A Da’Shawn Hand
NT1 Danny Shelton
JACK1 Julian Okwara
WILL1 Jamie Collins
MIKE1 Jahlani Tavai
CB1B Desmond Trufant
NB1 Justin Coleman
S-H1 Duron Harmon
K Matt Prater
LS Don Muhlbach

While Johnson and Swift are expected to platoon starting duties, the only other player on this list that is not a true starter is third-round pick Julian Okwara — even though he appears to be the top true JACK option on the roster.

Projected starters

The players in this section will either win a starting role or find a home as a reserve/role player and likely have an inside shot at the Lions 53-man roster.

OG Joe Dahl
OG Jonah Jackson
DT1B Nick Williams
MIKE2 Jarrad Davis
3rd S Will Harris

Dahl and Davis are returning starters but after additions made to the roster this offseason, it’s fair to wonder if their starting spots are in question. Jackson was the most significant interior offensive line addition this offseason and he appears to have an inside track for a starting role. Last year, Harris was groomed to take over the third safety role but should receive competition from Jayron Kearse for the role. There’s an argument to be made that Williams deserves to up a section, but until we see his role in camp, it’s difficult to project him as anything but a rotational starter with Hand.

Role players

These players should feel comfortable with their role on the team based on their skill sets and the current level of competition from the other players at their position group.

QB2 Chase Daniel
RB3 Bo Scarbrough
WR4 Marvin Hall
WR5 Quintez Cephus
TE2 Jesse James
OT3 Tyrell Crosby
OG3 Logan Stenberg
DDE2 Romeo Okwara
JACK2 Austin Bryant
WILL2 Christian Jones
CB3 Amani Oruwariye
S4 Jayron Kearse

Some role players are safer than others but the majority of players listed here have received an investment — either financially or draft stock — from the team. It’s worth noting that Scarbrough, Hall, Okwara, and Kearse are all in the final year of their contract with the Lions.

Final 13 spots

Based on my predicted current roster structure there should be 13 remaining spots on the Lions 53-man roster. The players in this section are the current leaders for those final spots but will be challenged by the players in the next two sections as things are far from settled.

RB4 Ty Johnson
RB/KR Jason Huntley
WR/RET/NB Jamal Agnew
TE/H-B Isaac Nauta
IOL/RT Kenny Wiggins
IOL6 Beau Benzschawel
NT2 John Penisini
DT3 Kevin Strong
LB/Sp.T Jalen Reeves-Maybin
CB/Gunner Mike Ford
NB/Gunner Tony McRae
FS/Gunner C.J. Moore
P Jack Fox

In my  “Establishing the 53” articles I explained in more detail why I selected each of the players listed above. Those articles are in the “explanation” link after each player for easier access to those pieces:

In the Hunt

The players in this group will need some help in order to find their way onto the 53-man roster. They could either benefit from the Lions constructing the roster differently or they could beat one player ahead of them to move up a section.

QB3 David Blough
FB Nick Bawden
WR5 Geronimo Allison
WR5 Chris Lacy
WR5 Travis Fulgham
TE4 Hunter Bryant
IOL Oday Aboushi
RT Dan Skipper
NT2 John Atkins
DT3 Jashon Cornell
LB5 Reggie Ragland
LB/Sp.T Miles Killebrew
LB/Sp.T Elijah Lee
CB/Gunner Darryl Roberts
CB/Gunner Dee Virgin
P Aaryn Siposs

The “Establishing the 53” series of articles listed in the above section explain in more detail why these players are still in the hunt for a roster spot.

Have work to do

These players found a spot on the 90-man roster due to their previous accomplishments but based on the other additions to the roster, they will have some work to do in the preseason if they hope to beat the odds and make the 53-man team.

RB Wes Hills
FB Luke Sellers
WR Geremy Davis
Slot Tom Kennedy
Slot Victor Bolden
TE Matt Sokol
RG Joshua Garnett
IOL Russell Bodine
OG Caleb Benenoch
OT Matt Nelson
DL Frank Herron
DE Olive Sagapolu
DE Jonathan Wynn
LB Jason Cabinda
LB Anthony Pittman
LB Christian Sam
CB Michael Jackson
S Jalen Elliott
S Jeremiah Dinson
S Bobby Price
LS Steve Wirtel

There are always players who surprise when they get to camp and while the players in this section have a lot of work to do, they can’t be ruled out at this time.

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Resetting the Lions needs list after free agency moves

Resetting the Detroit Lions needs list after the first week of free agency moves.

The NFL free agency period is a week old and the Detroit Lions have made several moves, including retaining players, adding others, as well as making trades.

To get an idea of which positions the Lions may address in the days leading up to and during the NFL draft, here’s a look at the 74 players who are on the active roster and the current need level at each position.

Quarterback

Starter: Matthew Stafford
Reserves: Chase Daniel, David Blough
Need level: Low

After adding trading for Blough last season and giving Daniel a 3-year contract last week, the Lions’ quarterback room is full. They will likely add a fourth for training camp but expect that to be an undrafted free agent who could be a developmental player they could place on their practice squad.

Running back

Starter: Kerryon Johnson
Reserves: Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson, Wes Hills, Tra Carson, Nick Bawden (FB)
Need level: Medium

With J.D. McKissic headed to Washington, the Lions could be in the market for a gadget/3rd down option, as well as insurance for Kerryon Johnson and Bo Scarbrough’s health. They could look to add a vet in free agency like Dion Lewis or target a player in the draft who could fill both roles.

Wide receiver

Starters: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola
Reserves: Marvin Hall, Chris Lacy, Travis Fulgham, Tom Kennedy, Jon Duhart, Victor Bolden
Need level: Medium-high

The Lions return all their wide receivers from last year but none are signed beyond the 2020 season. Expect Golladay to get a contract extension sometime this fall, but this is still likely a position the Lions target early in the draft — potentially even double-dipping.

Tight end

Starters: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James
Reserves: Isaac Nauta, Paul Butler, Matt Sokol
Need level: Low

With Logan Thomas joining McKissic in Washington, the Lions could be looking for a reserve tight end to compete with Nauta for a TE3 role.

Offensive tackle

Starters: Taylor Decker, Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Reserves: Tyrell Crosby, Dan Skipper, Matt Nelson
Need level: Medium-low

The need level here is hinges almost entirely on what the Lions longterm plans for Decker are. If they plan to extend him, the need level is minimal, but if he’s not in their future plans, they could draft his eventual replacement as early as Day 2.

Interior offensive line

Starters: Frank Ragnow, Joe Dahl, Beau Benzschawel
Reserves: Joshua Garnett, Russell Bodine, Casey Tucker, Caleb Benenoch
Need level: High at Guard

The most obvious hole on offense is the lack of starting caliber talent at guard — specifically at right guard. If the Lions plan on carrying over their guard rotation into 2020, they may be in the market to add two interior offensive linemen. Unless something changes, drafting a guard seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.

Interior defensive line

Starters: Da’Shawn Hand, Danny Shelton (NT)
Reserves: Nick Williams, John Atkins (NT), Kevin Strong, Frank Herron, Olive Sagapolu (NT)
Need level: Medium

Adding Shelton and Williams is a big step forward, but the Lions prefer to rotate their defensive linemen, making adding at least one more a priority. There are still solid options available in free agency, but this is also an area where the Lions could spend some draft capital.

EDGE rushers

Starters: Trey Flowers
Reserves: Romeo Okwara, Austin Bryant (JACK), Jonathan Wynn
Need level: Medium-High

With the release of Devon Kennard and the signing of Jamie Collins, the Lions appear to be prioritizing linebackers with more positional flexibility. That could mean the Lions are shifting away from a dedicated player at the JACK linebacker position, instead opting for several players who can play on the edge and off-the-ball. Adding a hybrid player Kamalei Correa in free agency or targeting draft prospects like Zach Baun or Josh Uche, would make a ton of sense.

In addition to a JACK linebacker, the Lions could also look to bring in a down defensive end depth. If Chase Young is there at pick No. 3, he’s the selection, but if they elect to wait, Utah’s Bradlee Anae is the name to know — both offer flexibility to play DDE and JACK.

Off-the-ball linebacker

Starters: Jamie Collins, Jarrad Davis, Christian Jones
Reserves: Jahlani Tavai, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Miles Killebrew, Steve Longa, Jason Cabinda, Anthony Pittman, Christian Sam
Need level: Low

Other than adding a JACK linebacker, the Lions are probably not in the market here, as they currently have 10 off-the-ball linebackers on the roster.

Cornerback

Starters: Desmond Trufant, Justin Coleman, Amani Oruwariye
Reserves: Mike Ford, Jamal Agnew, Dee Virgin, Tony McRae, Michael Jackson
Need level: Medium-high

Oruwariye has starting upside but is he ready to take over a starting role in 2020? At a minimum, the Lions are likely in the market to add competition on the outside and based on how the offseason has played out so far, signs seem to be pointing to the Lions targeting Jeff Okudah with their first-round pick.

Safety

Starters: Tracy Walker, Duron Harmon, Will Harris
Reserves: Jayron Kearse, C.J. Moore
Need level: low

Adding Harmon and Kearse most likely solidified this group. More competition could be on the way, but these five safeties all have a shot to make the 53-man roster.

Special teams

Starters: Matt Prater (K), Don Muhlbach (LS)
Reserves: Jack Fox (P), Matt Wile (P), James Fischer (LS)
Need level: High at Punter

Prater and Muhlbach are among the best special teamers in the NFL at their position, but it appears the Lions are moving on from punter Sam Martin. There are several options to replace Martin this offseason both in free agency and the draft — Braden Mann (TAMU) is the name to know here.

2020 free agency primer: Resetting the Lions roster and needs list

The Detroit Lions have 66 players on their roster entering the 2020 free agency period but several positions that lack a starter or depth.

The NFL new year is set to begin on Wednesday at 4:00 pm EST, but the legal tampering period opens tomorrow, meaning teams can begin talking to free agents across the league.

To get an idea of which positions the Detroit Lions may address in the coming days, here’s a look at the 66 players who are on the active roster — they can add up to 90 players once the new year opens — and the current need level at each position.

Quarterback

Starter: Matthew Stafford
Reserves: David Blough, Kyle Sloter
Need level: Medium-low

Looking only at the 2020 season, Stafford is the clear starter and Blough is a capable backup, but will the Lions be looking for a challenger for the top reserve spot? The answer is very likely, yes. Expect the Lions to go after a Day 3 prospect or a Jeff Driskel-like player in free agency.

Running back

Starter: Kerryon Johnson
Reserves: Bo Scarbrough, Ty Johnson, Wes Hills, Tra Carson, Nick Bawden (FB)
Need level: Medium

Health is the primary concern here as Kerryon Johnson and Scarbrough both have concerning injury histories. The Lions should be in the market for a reliable option who can share reserve rotational duties and potentially step up in case of injury. That could mean they add a veteran in the second/third wave of free agency or Day 2/3 of the draft.

Wide receiver

Starters: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola
Reserves: Marvin Hall, Chris Lacy, Travis Fulgham, Tom Kennedy, Jon Duhart, Victor Bolden
Need level: High

The Lions return their entire regular season wide receiver corps but none of them are signed beyond the 2020 season — that screams top-100 draft pick. With the wealth of options in this draft class, this could be a position where the Lions’ double-dip and draft two prospects.

Tight end

Starters: T.J. Hockenson, Jesse James
Reserves: Isaac Nauta, Paul Butler, Matt Sokol
Need level: Low

Nauta may be ready to step up into the third tight end role, but if the Lions think he needs more time, they could look to add a veteran in free agency — potentially re-signing Logan Thomas or a player similar.

Offensive tackle

Starters: Taylor Decker, Tyrell Crosby
Reserves: Dan Skipper, Matt Nelson
Need level: High

With the release of Rick Wagner, the Lions are staring at a big question mark at right tackle. Currently, Crosby — a player the team really likes — is in line for a starter role, but they will likely bring in a high-level player to compete with him for the job. Add in the fact that Decker in a contract year and this is a position the Lions may address in free agency and high in the draft.

Interior offensive line

Starters: Frank Ragnow (C), Joe Dahl, Beau Benzschawel
Reserves: Joshua Garnett, Russell Bodine, Casey Tucker, Caleb Benenoch
Need level: High

The Lions return starters Ragnow and Dahl, but Graham Glasgow — arguably the team’s highest-profile free agent — appears headed to free agency leaving a big hole at right guard. Add in the fact that top reserve Kenny Wiggins is also a free agent, and this is another position the Lions could address both in free agency and in the draft. Benzschawel is a placeholder in the starting lineup for now but will be given a shot to compete.

Interior defensive line

Starters: Da’Shawn Hand, John Atkins (NT)
Reserves: Kevin Strong, Frank Herron, Olive Sagapolu (NT)
Need level: Very High

Damon Harrison was released, A’Shawn Robinson and Mike Daniels are headed to free agency, and both Hand’s and Strong had their 2019 season’s significantly altered due to injury. The Lions could be in full overhaul mode here this offseason. On paper, it would make sense that the Lions would spend big on a defensive tackle in free agency and also select a prospect at the position sometime within the top-100 picks of the NFL draft.

EDGE rushers

Starters: Trey Flowers, Devon Kennard (JACK)
Reserves: Romeo Okwara, Austin Bryant, Jonathan Wynn
Need level: Medium-High

Flowers and Kennard are firmly entrenched as starters but the Lions like to rotate players on the edge meaning they’re always on the lookout for depth. Okwara saw 53-percent of snaps last season and Bryant showed potential after returning from injured reserve, but based on some of last season’s struggles, the Lions should be open to adding competition/upgrades.

Off-the-ball linebacker

Starters: Jarrad Davis, Christian Jones
Reserves: Jahlani Tavai, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Steve Longa, Jason Cabinda, Anthony Pittman, Christian Sam
Need level: Low

Fans won’t like it, but the Lions are returning all eight of last year’s off-the-ball linebackers, which indicates they may not have much interest in adding more players at the position. The Lions won’t turn away an upgrade, but they also likely won’t be actively searching either.

Cornerback

Starters: Darius Slay, Justin Coleman, Amani Oruwariye
Reserves: Jamal Agnew, Michael Jackson
Need level: High

Regardless of what happens with Darius Slay, the Lions will almost assuredly be looking to add a starter-level player capable of challenging Oruwariye and possibly taking over for Slay in 2021. That could mean adding a player in free agency, with their first-round pick, or even both.

One important note is that both Mike Ford and Dee Virgin are exclusive rights free agents — meaning if they want to play in the NFL in 2020 they can only negotiate a contract with the Lions — so it’s more than likely they will return this season, adding depth in the secondary and re-assuming their starting special teams roles.

Safety

Starters: Tracy Walker, Will Harris
Reserves: C.J. Moore, A.J. Howard
Need level: Medium-High

Despite spending third-round picks on Walker and Harris in the last two drafts, the Lions use three safety sets roughly 50-percent of the time, meaning this is an important role that the Lions will be looking to fill. Don’t be surprised if the Lions add an experienced starter in free agency or another top-100 pick on a safety.

Special teams

Starters: Matt Prater (K), Don Muhlbach (LS)
Reserves: Jack Fox (P), Matt Wile (P), James Fischer (LS)
Need level: High at Punter

Prater and Muhlbach — who signed on for another season with the Lions yesterday — are among the best special teamers in the NFL at their position, but it appears the Lions are moving on from punter Sam Martin. There are several options to replace Martin this offseason both in free agency and the draft.