The Houston Rockets (24-11) meet up with the NBA’s worst team, Atlanta Hawks (8-29), at State Farm Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off Wednesday. We analyze Rockets-Hawks odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Rockets at Hawks: Key injuries
Rockets
- PG Russell Westbrook (rest) out
- SG Gerald Green (foot) out
- C Nene (groin) out
Hawks
- PF Jabari Parker (shoulder) out
- PF Bruno Fernando (personal) out
Rockets at Hawks: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Rockets 132, Hawks 114
Moneyline (ML)
The Rockets (-358) could open a whole can of butt whoopin’ on the Hawks (+275). G James Harden has played really well in his nine career games in Atlanta despite falling slightly below his career average in points per game (24.7 in Atlanta versus 24.9 for his career); he shoots .504% from the field and .434% from behind the arc. Since his co-star, Westbrook, is taking a load management reprieve against the Hawks, expect Harden to have a higher usage rate than his already NBA-high of 37%. Since I see no reason Harden won’t decimate a Hawks team ranked 27th by defensive rate, PASS on the moneyline due to the lack of value in the -358 odds for the visitors.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Betting ROCKETS (-7.5, -121) is the right play here. What do we know the Rockets and Harden like to do? Shoot free throws; the Rockets rank first in the NBA in free-throw attempts. The Hawks rank 27th in free-throw attempts allowed. That, combined with a glaring offense versus defense mismatch—the Rockets are first in PPG (119.4) and the Hawks allow the second-most PPG (117.3)—makes the Rockets the only side to take.
Over/Under (O/U)
Houston’s opponents shoot below average from long distance (.352%, ranked 19th) but that doesn’t make them good at defending threes, in my opinion, because their opponents are getting off the most 3-point attempts in the NBA. The Hawks have struggled from three so far this season (ranked last in 3-point%) but get up a bunch of attempts per game (35.1, ranked ninth) so if their shots fall, the Over looks great.
I lean OVER 237.5 (-106), not like, because I prefer to bet the total in correlation with the favorite’s playing style and surprisingly enough the Rockets’ Over/Under record is just 15-20. Furthermore, the Hawks’ 23rd-ranked offense (107.5 PPG) is a little too inconsistent for the absurd 237.5 total.
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