Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs. Maryland

The Tigers are a touchdown favorite to win the Music City Bowl, but could this game be closer than oddsmakers expect?

The 6-6 Auburn Tigers return to action for the first time since losing the Iron Bowl later this week when they take on the 7-5 Maryland Terrapins in the Music City Bowl on December 30.

Auburn finished the regular season with back-to-back losses but managed bowl eligibility in the first season under new head coach [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag].

On the other side, Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland had an up-and-down season in the Big 10, winning 7 games in 12 tries.

The all-time leading passer in Big 10 history has opted out of this game, giving Auburn a significant edge according to oddsmakers. The Tigers are currently a full touchdown favorite on BetMGM.

ESPN FPI believes this game should be much closer, as Hugh Freeze’s squad has just a 52.4% chance to win according to the model.

Will the tale of the tape show us this game will be a Dixieland Delight for Auburn fans, or will Maryland fans be singing the Victory song on Broadway after the Music City Bowl?

As always we’ll start with the quarterbacks.

Tigers quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] initial season on the Plains was much like a Sky Dog at 2 AM. The junior was a bit disappointing, but ultimately got the job done for the most part.

Thorne finished the regular season with 1,671 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions as Auburn’s QB1(a).

Hugh Freeze’s QB1(b), [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag], has joined thousands of other players in the transfer portal, leaving Thorne with the keys to the Honda Accord that is the Auburn offense.

With Ashford all but gone and incoming four-star recruit Walker White cooking in the background, Thorne has one final chance in game action to prove he can lead the Tigers into 2024.

As for the team up in Maryland, senior sensation Taulia Tagovailoa has chosen to opt out of this game, leaving sophomore quarterback [autotag]Billy Edwards Jr.[/autotag] and freshmen [autotag]Cameron Edge[/autotag] as the lone signal-callers on the Terps roster.

Both players combined for just 13 passing attempts this season although Edwards Jr. was used as a goal line quarterback, most notably rushing for 3 touchdowns against No. 1 ranked Michigan.

Maryland’s passing offense was explosive this season but the loss of Tagovailoa gives the edge to Thorne and the Tigers.

The skill positions across the offense are a different story. Auburn holds the edge at running back thanks to the electrifying [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag] but the wide receiver gap is larger than Old Line State’s obsession with Old Bay.

Maryland often employs three-reciever sets with [autotag]Jeshaun Jones[/autotag], [autotag]Tai Felton[/autotag], and [autotag]Kaden Pranther[/autotag]. Those three combined for nearly 500 more receiving yards than Auburn quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] had in passing yards this season.

The Terrapins fourth target, tight end Corey Dyches, would have paced all Auburn pass-catchers as well.

Auburn tight end Rivaldo Fairweather had a solid season but the edge clearly goes to Maryland, especially considering the Tigers will be without [autotag]Ja’Varrius Johnson[/autotag] in this one.

Auburn’s defense is clearly the better unit on that side of the ball, but defensive coordinator [autotag]Ron Roberts[/autotag] has some work ahead of him due to opt outs.

Cornerbacks [autotag]D.J. James[/autotag] and [autotag]Nehemiah Pritchett[/autotag] as well as defensive lineman [autotag]Marcus Harris[/autotag] won’t be availbile for this one, leaving the 21-ranked defense according to ESPN FPI shorthanded in Nashville.

James and Harris were arguably Auburn’s two best players on the defensive side of the ball this season. It helps that linebacker [autotag]Jalen McLeod[/autotag] and cornerback [autotag]Keionte Scott[/autotag] are staying on the Plains and will be playing, but the loss of Harris, James, and Pritchett will be felt.

Maryland’s defense on the other hand isn’t great but it’s not anemic either. The Terps were solid all year long, but did give up an average of over 30 points per game in losses this season.

Head coach [autotag]Mike Locksley[/autotag] isn’t dealing with any major opt-outs on that side of the ball, making the gap between these two teams closer than the stats say.

Still, Auburn gets the edge here.

There is a reason ESPN FPI has these two teams ranked next to each other in overall ranking. While the loss of Taulia Tagovailoa gives Auburn an edge in this game, the Music City Bowl could very well come down to the wire.

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Report: Robby Ashford to enter transfer portal

Ashford passed for 1,758 yards and nine touchdowns in two seasons on the Plains.

It appears that a spot has opened up on Auburn’s quarterback depth chart.

According to a report by Nubyjas Wilborn of Newsweek, sophomore quarterback [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] has entered the transfer portal after spending two seasons on the Plains.

Originally signing with Oregon, Ashford returned to his home state ahead of the 2022 season. He split time with former Auburn quarterback [autotag]TJ Finley[/autotag] before Finley suffered a shoulder injury in Auburn’s loss to Penn State in week three, thus paving the way for Ashford to take the reigns of the offense.

He returned to the role of secondary quarterback in 2023, sharing time with Michigan State transfer [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag]. He rushed for 217 yards and five touchdowns for the Tigers this season, while passing for just 145 yards and two scores.

This chapter in Ashford’s college career closes with 1,758 passing yards and nine touchdowns. He also rushed for 927 yards and 12 scores. He has two seasons of eligibility remaining.

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SEC quarterback expected to transfer at season’s end

One of the SEC’s most distinguished quarterbacks could be on the market soon.

One of the SEC’s most distinguished quarterbacks could be on the market soon.

According to a report by Matt Zenitz of 247Sports, Mississippi State quarterback [autotag]Will Rogers[/autotag] is expected to enter the transfer portal with one season of eligibility remaining. The news comes after the Bulldogs’ 17-7 loss to Ole Miss on Thursday night in Starkville, ending their season with a 5-7 record.

Rogers signed with Mississippi State as a member of the 2020 class and was a perfect match for former Bulldogs’ head coach Mike Leach. Under Leach’s leadership, Rogers passed for 10,689 yards and 82 touchdowns in three seasons.

Rogers will be a hot target in the upcoming portal, and it is easy to see why. Not only does Rogers have a proven record of being an efficient passer, but he has plenty of accolades in his suitcase as well. Rogers has won plenty of Player of the Week honors throughout his career from multiple outlets, he is on the watchlist for several awards this season such as the Maxwell and Wuerffel Award, and he owns 29 Mississippi State records.

It is too early to say what the quarterback room will look like for [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] and the Auburn Tigers next season, but it may be worth taking a look at Rogers.

With [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] taking control of the offense, the status of [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] is now something to keep an eye on. If Ashford were to explore the transfer portal following the season, the Tigers would need to add depth to its quarterback room. Adding an experienced quarterback to challenge Thorne while also adding to the development of incoming freshman [autotag]Walker White[/autotag] could benefit Auburn should they take that route.

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Brian’s Column: Hugh Freeze, it’s time to show some fight

Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze has spent his first season on the Plains overhauling a bad roster. Now it’s time to focus on winning writes Brian Hauch.

Auburn Football started this season with extremely tempered expectations. The program would have a new starting quarterback, a revamped offensive line, transfers starting at multiple positions along the defense, and a new head coach in [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag].

The [autotag]Bryan Harsin[/autotag] era set back the Tigers a few years, and Freeze was brought in to help get the program in the right direction.

In many aspects, he has done just that, mainly through the recruiting trail. Freeze has overhauled Auburn’s recruiting tactics, getting four and five-star commits to become Tigers frequently.

Freeze has had to pick up the pieces of the mess left by Harsin since he arrived on the Plains, and while he’s done a good job rebuilding an Auburn culture that was lost, it’s time for him to take a minute and focus on “the now”.

That “now” is beyond ugly right now. The Tigers have lost all four of their games in the SEC. The offensive side of the ball, that is supposedly Hugh Freeze’s specialty as a head coach, is a disaster.

Freeze has seemed to completely give up on quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne [/autotag] but refuses to move on to [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] full time, or even [autotag]Holden Grenier.[/autotag] a shot.

To be fair, Freeze did warn Auburn supporters about something like this happening at the beginning of the season with his team’s lack of talent compared to other SEC schools fairly apparent.

While that’s a fine assertion at the beginning of the season, you would still like to see some signs of improvement, and there has been virtually none.

In Auburn’s gritty week two win over Cal, the offense scored 14 points while accumulating 230 total yards.

[autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] threw for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Rivaldo Fairweather caught 3 passes for 39 yards, and Jay Fair caught 2 passes for 25 yards.

Now, if we fast forward to Auburn’s loss at home last week against Ole Miss, the offense scored 21 points (7 of them coming in the games final seconds). They accumulated 275 total yards, [autotag]Payton Thorne [/autotag] threw for 100 yards and 1 touchdown, and the team only had 2 players catch over 1 pass.

Auburn’s offense has not improved at all, and that is pretty unacceptable, especially considering the defense continues to be one of the better units in the SEC.

In a year in which Auburn has a chance to go to a bowl, and hosts an Iron Bowl, [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] and his staff need to reel it in and focus on what is in front of them. It’s time to worry about the finish of this season and not the start of the next one.

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Payton Thorne, Robby Ashford discuss ongoing quarterback rotation

How are Thorne and Ashford handling the quarterback situation through seven games?

Through seven games, the ongoing quarterback battle tells us that [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] and [autotag]Philip Montgomery[/autotag] are not set on one guy leading the offense.

Although each quarterback brings a certain set of skills that can be useful in Auburn’s offense, neither [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] nor [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] has developed enough to take the reigns of the battle for themselves. One of the main issues with the rotation is that neither quarterback has a chance to build consistency in game situations. Thorne says that he has never been a part of a two-quarterback system before, and is still adjusting to the role.

“I’ve never had to do that before. It’s a new challenge for me. I’ve never really seen anybody else do that either. So I don’t know if there’s anybody I can ask to learn from,” Thorne said this week. “Every time I’m in there, I’m trying to do what I’m supposed to do and do what I’m being coached to do and execute and make a play when we need it.”

Ashford, who experienced a rotation with [autotag]T.J. Finley[/autotag] in the early portion of the 2022 season, says that his experience this season is all about learning and executing his “package plays.”

“That’s just the biggest thing. Just honing in on my package plays, too. You’ve got to know all of that. It’s just really, for me, just knowing my package plays on top of knowing the playbook. Those are just big things,” Ashford said. “I try to learn every single week what we’re running and, on top of that, what my package plays are and what I am trying to do with those. It’s a little bit extra studying, but I can’t complain.”

In the rotation, Thorne has the edge in attempted passes with 130 as opposed to Ashford who has thrown just 26 times. Thorne also has 259 rushing yards compared to Ashford’s 180. Head coach [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] was asked about the quarterback rotation during Monday’s press conference and said that this week’s rotation would be based on which quarterback gives the team the best chance to win.

“Whatever our offensive staff convinces me is the best approach to give us a chance to win a game,” Freeze said. “I’ve said from day one that I think Robby has a place, and is his place ever down? We’ll see this week. If it’s a package that enables us to continue drives. I think we always have to look at those things right now, with the current state of who we are. I’m not content, though, with anything right now offensively.”

Auburn’s next chance to perfect the art of quarterback rotation will be Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT when the Tigers host Mississippi State at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

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Hugh Freeze press conference review: Mississippi State week

Hugh Freeze’s weekly press conference was dominated by offensive-related discussion.

Another game week is here, and it is time to break down everything [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] said ahead of Auburn’s game with Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.

Following last weekend’s performance in Auburn’s 28-21 loss to No. 11 Ole Miss, Freeze was bombarded with a series of questions regarding his team’s struggles on offense. One of the biggest areas of concern is the quarterback rotation. Through seven weeks, Freeze says that there is still plenty to figure out regarding the best way to use [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] and [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag].

“They are doing two different things. Whether that’s smart or not, I don’t know. We have to figure that out. We obviously think it’s smart. When they are doing two different things, I don’t think that’s an issue. They are confident in what they do. Here is your package, get really confident with that. It’s not like we are asking one to go do the whole game plan right now. There are two distinctively different packages.”

Outside of quarterback play, Freeze discussed several topics such as playcalling, Wesley McGriff, and recruiting. Here’s a recap of everything Freeze said during his weekly press conference.

What Hugh Freeze and Auburn’s players said after losing to Ole Miss

Auburn’s players had plenty to say after their loss to Ole Miss.

Auburn fans are growing frustrated with the two-quarterback system but it doesn’t sound like [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] has any plans to stick with one quarterback moving forward.

“I don’t think it had anything to do with the outcome of the game,” he said after the game. “I think both had a really good package and both worked at times. It would be nice to have one for sure but we’re searching to see what the best avenue is for us to go and win. I still think that Robby (Ashford) should have a package. I felt good about both of these packages tonight. I think they both worked at times, but it was when you get into the third down area that we didn’t convert.”

[autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] and [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] both played extensively in Auburn’s 28-21 loss to Ole Miss Saturday night in Jordan-Hare Stadium but neither one was able to effectively move the ball.

Thorne finished the game 9-of-13 passing for 100 yards and one touchdown and rushed 11 times for 34 yards. Ashford went 3-of-4 for 22 yards and added 27 yards on eight carries. Each quarterback also threw an interception into double coverage that ended a scoring opportunity.

Here is everything Freeze and Auburn’s players had to say about Auburn’s fourth straight loss of the season.

Social media reacts to Auburn’s offense no-showing against Ole Miss

Auburn’s offense was completely shut down in a 28-21 loss to Ole Miss.

Another week, another terrible performance by Auburn’s offense.

The Tigers’ offense was once again unable to move the ball against a weak defense, managing just 275 yards against Ole Miss as the Tigers fell 28-21 Saturday night in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

[autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag] and offensive coordinator [autotag]Philip Montgomery[/autotag] continued to rotate [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] and [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] but both struggled to generate any offense. Both threw an interception into double coverage and combined to complete 12 passes for 122 yards.

Auburn fans took to social media to vent about the terrible performance, which wasted another great showing by the defense. Here is a look at the top reactions to Auburn’s fourth straight loss of the season.

Instant Analysis: Ole Miss edges Auburn with strong 2nd half effort

No. 12 Ole Miss dominated the second half offensively to earn the 28-21 win over Auburn.

The Auburn Tigers entered Saturday’s game with No. 12 Ole Miss in search of their first SEC win. For a half, it appeared to be in sight.

However, the goal was short-lived as Ole Miss pulled away from the Tigers in the second half to earn a 28-21 win on Saturday night at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn.

Auburn (3-4, 0-4 SEC) tied the game at 14-14 early in the 2nd quarter, which remained the score until halftime. Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) went on to outscore the Tigers, 14-7 in the second half to pull out the win.

Although Ole Miss won the game by one score, they dominated the yards game. The Rebels outgained the Tigers, 425-275 and recorded 18 more offensive plays. The largest discrepancy was in the passing game, as Ole Miss passed for 202 yards while holding Auburn to 102 yards.

[autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] started the game for the Tigers at quarterback and was trusted to run the entire first drive. He completed two pass attempts for 16 yards and rushed for 11 yards. However, he was halted on a fourth down play at midfield to end the initial drive.

The Rebels first drive saw them commit four penalties. However, it affected them minimally as they were able to score. Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart connected with Zakhari Franklin from 11 yards away to put his squad ahead, 7-0 with 4:55 remaining in the opening quarter.

Ole Miss’ lead was short-lived, as [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag] sprinted 53-yards on the fifth play of Auburn’s next drive to tie the game. Payton Thorne did not attempt a pass on his first drive, but managed to rush for 13 yards.

Dart responded on the next drive by rushing 29 yards to push Ole Miss back in front, 14-7 to end the first quarter. The score came on a 4th down and 1 play, and Dart rushed up the middle to score.

The lone score of the 2nd quarter belonged to Auburn. With 11:41 remaining in the first half, Hunter scored his second touchdown of the night out of the wildcat formation to tie the game at 14-14. Hunter ended the first half with 63 yards on nine carries.

It took a while for either team to find pay dirt in the 3rd quarter, but Ole Miss was able to retake the lead as the quarter expired. Dart scored his third touchdown, his second on the ground, to cap a eight-play, 90-yard drive. The Rebels gained 118 yards of total offense in the 3rd quarter while Auburn managed to gain just 14.

The nail in the coffin was driven in with 7:51 remaining in the 4th quarter. Running back Quinshon Judkins scored his first touchdown of the game by rushing four yards to extend the Rebels’ lead to 28-14.

Auburn was able to put one more score on the board with 0:56 to go in the contest. Tight end Rivaldo Fairweather caught the first receiving touchdown of the game to cut the lead to 28-21. Auburn’s onside kick attempt failed, thus ending the game.

Auburn passed for just 122 yards in the game, with Thorne leading the way with 100 yards. Hunter was the team’s leading receiver and rusher. He recorded 54 yards through the air while rushing for 91 yards.

Defensively, Auburn recorded eight tackles for loss. Marcus Harris led the way with two tackles behind the line of scrimmage, and finished with seven total stops. Larry Nixon led the team with eight total tackles.

Auburn returns to Jordan-Hare Stadium next Saturday to face Mississippi State at 2:30 p.m. CT. The Bulldogs pulled off a defensive win on Saturday, knocking off Arkansas, 10-7.

Tale of the Tape: Auburn vs Ole Miss

Ole Miss is favored in week seven, but does the tale of the tape say this game will be closer?

The 5-1 Ole Miss Rebels travel to Jordan-Hare stadium to take on the 3-3 Auburn Tigers in a week 7 SEC matchup on Saturday.

Auburn comes into this one a loser of three straight games, while Ole Miss has only lost once all year. That loss came in Tuscaloosa to Alabama.

The high-octane offense of Ole Miss and their ability to win SEC games has the Rebels coming in as 6.5-point favorites on the road in this one, giving them an implied 71.43% chance to win outright.

ESPN’s Football Power Index doesn’t give the Tigers much of a chance either, as [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag]’s team has just a 22.8% chance to upset the Rebels according to FPI.

Most of the public would agree Ole Miss is likely to win this game, but will a look at the tale of the tape show us Auburn has a better chance at breaking their losing streak than the surface suggests?

As always, we’ll start by examining the quarterbacks.

[autotag]Lane Kiffin[/autotag]’s offenses are always high-powered, and this year is no outlier. The team averages 42 points per contest this season, led by the arm of quarterback [autotag]Jaxon Dart[/autotag].

Dart has been amazing this year, as the junior has thrown for 1,638 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has thrown only two interceptions.

On the Auburn side, [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] and [autotag]Robby Ashford[/autotag] have continuously struggled.

The tandem has thrown for just 935 yards in 6 games, accumulating 6 touchdowns through the air.

The clear edge in the quarterback battle goes to Ole Miss.

In terms of the skill players, Ole Miss once again has the edge,

Running backs [autotag]Quinshon Judkins[/autotag] and [autotag]Ulysees Bentley[/autotag] have combined to rush for 718 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns this year behind a very good Rebels offensive line.

The pass catchers have also been great, with the trio of [autotag]Jordan Watkins[/autotag], [autotag]Dayton Wade[/autotag], and [autotag]Tre Harris[/autotag] combining for over 1,000 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.

When compared with Auburn’s top skill position players like [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag], [autotag]Jay Fair[/autotag], and [autotag]Brian Battie[/autotag], the comparison is not close.

Ole Miss as an offense is much better than what Auburn has to offer.

The defensive battle is much closer, however.

Despite Auburn getting torched by Jayden Daniels and LSU last week, the Tigers still rank in the top 60 in points per game allowed and the top 70 in yards per game allowed.

While those numbers are much worse than what they were earlier, they are great compared to an Ole Miss defense that ranks outside of the top 100 in both categories.

If Auburn is going to win this game, they need to take advantage of their better defensive unit. That is something they were not able to do a week ago, but the home game may change the tide.

Contact/Follow us @TheAuburnWire on  X (Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Auburn news, notes, and opinions. You can also follow Brian on Twitter @TheRealBHauch