10 best predictions for the big Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 7 games?
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10 Best College Football Predictions: Week 7
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Results So Far: 41-29-1
What have you shown us?
We’re halfway through the season and now we’ve got enough of a sample size to have a good feel about just how good and bad these teams are.
This week I’m staying away from the games that don’t feel right and I’m going with what we know. Oh no, trap games. You’re not fooling me like you did with Oklahoma getting a ton of points last week.
I’d love to go with Bama. Pick against the Tide ATS when everyone is assuming a layup – like last week against Texas A&M – and go with them when the world questions the greatness. However, I’m not 100% sure Tennessee can’t pull this off outright. I’m staying away.
I do know what Clemson is, and I love giving away just 3.5 to Florida State, but something just doesn’t feel right. FSU might have the right mix at home.
So with that in mind, these are all about what we’ve been able to see, what we know, and what – for the most part – we can prove.
In other words, it’s time to go with the annual bit.
You’re a good person. You pay your taxes, keep the toilet seat down, and tip generously. You do things the right way, and that’s why you deserve these 10 picks.
If they don’t work, it’s not our fault. Any wrong call here means something glitched in the matrix – like Nevada-Colorado State last week; more on that later – so with that, we start with the only point total pick of the week …
Click on each game for the preview
POINT TOTAL 73
PICK Under
I shouldn’t have to tell you by now what to do with point total around 35, a spread of 50 or more, or a point total over the 70s.
As I’ll keep repeating, it’s really, really, really hard for two teams to get past 70. One team could bonk, there could be a slew of turnovers, a starting quarterback could get the sniffles, whatever.
The advice is to always take the under, enjoy the game, and if it goes over you’ve paid for the enjoyment of an entertaining shootout.
Start with this – Washington is back home. Just assume the team will find some semblance of a D again after a disastrous two-game road trip to UCLA and Arizona State. It’s very, very doubtful it’ll give up 40 to the Wildcats.
Arizona has only been rocked when the turnovers are flowing – three against Mississippi State, Cal, and Oregon – but Washington’s D is hit-or-miss on takeaways. The UW O should hit 40, the D should give up 20ish, and this should push to 70 and stall.
LINE Ole Miss -15
ATS PICK Ole Miss
This spot worked just find for the Georgia pick ATS over Auburn last week, so I’m riding with it. Again with the theme for this week …
What do we know? Auburn can’t score.
It hasn’t pushed past 17 in over a month, it’s putting too much stress on an otherwise solid defense, and things are starting to slip.
The Ole Miss offense might have struggled to put away Tulsa and Kentucky, but the running game has been wonderful and the defense has been stunningly okay.
Considering the Auburn run defense is buckling, and knowing the offense will have to go against type to push past 17, Ole Miss scoring 33 or more for the fourth time in five games should work.
Again, going with what we know so far …
LINE Cal -15
ATS PICK Cal
I know. I KNOW. I’m with you. It’s scary to buy into Cal considering it struggled against UNLV, just got dropped by Washington State 28-9, and only has one great performance in a 49-31 win over Arizona.
We’ll get through this together.
What has Colorado shown you to suggest it can stay with anyone, much less a decent team like Cal? Granted, it had two weeks off to take a deep breath after firing head coach Karl Dorrell, but Cal is coming off a bye, too.
First, the Buffs have yet to come closer than 23 in any of its five games. Second, it’s dead last in the nation at stopping third downs, dead last against the run, and it’s the second-worst team in scoring D. Third, it’s going to take turnovers to pull this off, and Cal hasn’t given any up in the last three games and has just two mistakes all year.
Until this Colorado ATS train stops, we’ll stay on.
Like Auburn and Colorado, there’s another team that showed you what it appears to be …
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LINE Miami -7
ATS PICK Miami
Oh, I am well aware of Miami’s ability to underwhelm, and I don’t blame you one bit for either staying away or going the other direction here.
Over the last three weeks the Hurricanes have developed a brutal habit of playing up or down to its competition and then managing to lose. There’s one big reason why this time might be different.
Miami’s biggest issue is turnovers, and Virginia Tech doesn’t take the ball away.
At least the Canes have been close. They couldn’t stop screwing up against Middle Tennessee, and the O worked just fine in the loss to North Carolina.
The Hokie defense has been too awful over the last three games. The team didn’t cover the 14.5 against Pitt, got rocked by 31 against North Carolina, and got rolled over by West Virginia.
Here’s the advice. Hold your nose, go with Miami, forget you did, go do something else with your Saturday, and hope there’s a nice surprise waiting for you when you get home.
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LINE Wisconsin -7.5
ATS PICK Wisconsin
There’s no reason to throw any parades for anyone who beat Northwestern 42-7, but after the brutal loss to Illinois and the firing of Paul Chryst, Wisconsin might have perked up a bit under Jim Leonhard.
But this is more about Michigan State.
The Spartans can throw – always be leery of what decent passing games with talent can do against Wisconsin – but the run defense has been awful over the last three games against Minnesota, Maryland, and Ohio State. Washington didn’t run on MSU partly because Michael Penix Jr. was too busy throwing for close to 400 yards.
1) Think about liking the under on the 42, but I’m not going with it only because I’m nervous the Badgers might come close to hitting that themselves if everything goes off the rails. 2) Michigan State hasn’t come closer than 14 against anyone in the last four games, and 3) it’s one of the worst teams in the country in time of possession.
You don’t control the ball against the Badgers, you’re never going to see your O on the field.
Warning. Outside of one game I’m going B-side deep cuts on these next picks, starting with …
NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Rice at Florida Atlantic
