3. New Mexico at New Mexico State
LINE New Mexico -6.5
ATS PICK New Mexico
I’m gritting my teeth hard on this, but it’s the right call.
Sometimes the rivalry games just don’t work. Louisiana should’ve beaten ULM – it didn’t. Georgia Southern probably should’ve been able to get by Georgia State – it didn’t.
New Mexico is hardly a good enough team to assume it can just stroll into Las Cruces and roll.
Yeah, I get it. It’s hard to give away almost a touchdown from a team that’s horrible on the O line, has a painfully inefficient passing game, and worst of all, averages only 19 points per game.
Last year’s Lobo offense was even worse, and it beat New Mexico State 34-25.
What New Mexico does have is just enough of a defense to matter. LSU was able to come up with over 600 yards of total offense against the Lobos, but that’s LSU. UNLV had a hard time getting going, Wyoming couldn’t break through, and Boise State won despite generating just 318 yards.
New Mexico State had two weeks to prepare, but it’s coming off a 21-7 home loss to FIU. There wasn’t a turnover problem, and the defense wasn’t destroyed – the Aggies were just awful. The O managed just 221 yards against one of the nation’s worst teams.
Oh yeah, this might be really, really ugly, and certainly funky things could happen if the Lobo offense starts screwing up.
But the final score might be 7-0.
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