In a 12-round WBC junior welterweight title fight, Regis Prograis faces Danielito Zorrilla Saturday at Smoothie King Arena in New Orleans. The main fight card is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (DAZN), with the main event scheduled for approximately 11:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Prograis vs. Zorrilla odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Prograis returns to the ring for the first time since Nov. 26, 2022 when he knocked out Jose Zepeda in the 11th round at Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, Calif. Before that, he had a pair of 6th-round TKOs against Tyrone McKenna and Ivan Redkach.
Previously, he was expected to face Liam Paro, but the latter was forced out due to injury, entering Zorrilla.
Prograis has had 4 consecutive KO/TKO wins since a majority-decision setback against Josh Taylor at O2 Arena in the United Kingdom in Oct. 2019. With a win, Prograis could potentially set up a rematch with Teofimo Lopez Jr. for the WBO title, after the latter topped Taylor last weekend.
Zorrilla rebounded with a 1st-round TKO of Aristides Quintero to get his swagged back after falling via unanimous decision against Arnold Barboza Jr. in mid-July 2022 in a fight for the WBO inter-continental super lightweight belt.
Prograis vs. Zorrilla odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Prograis -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100) | Zorrilla +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
- Over/Under: 9 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -450)
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Prograis vs. Zorrilla picks and predictions
Records: Prograis (28-1-0, 24 KOs) | Zorrilla (17-1-0, 13 KOs)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Prograis (-1600), the prodigal son of New Orleans, returns to his hometown to headline at Smoothie King Arena for the first time in his career. The fighter, displaced by Hurricane Katrina, is hopeful of putting his hometown further back on the athletic map.
The 34-year-old southpaw enters this fight with a 67-inch reach, while Zorrilla (+700) has a 3-inch advantage in that department. However, Prograis has plenty of experience, and he will have the hometown crowd behind him.
The NOLA native will likely make quick work of the challenger, coming in on short notice. However, you cannot risk 16 times your potential return. There is just too much risk for not enough reward.
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
Prograis will win, barring a major disaster, but how soon?
I think the sweet spot, and the books seem to agree, that Round Group Betting focusing on PROGRAIS WIN IN ROUND 5-8 (+160) is the way to go.
There is no value playing No (-450): Will the fight go the distance? However, if you want to go with LESS THAN 9 ROUNDS (-135), for a little more wiggle room, that’s certainly a sensible way to go, too.
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