Tag: Reds Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (15-18) host the Cincinnati Reds (16-14) for the finale of a 3-game series at Petco Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

San Diego lost Monday’s series opener 5-2 as a -109 pick ’em, but rebounded Tuesday with a 6-4 win as a -164 favorite, which snapped a 5-game skid. The 1st game cashed the Under (8), while Game 2 hit the Over (7).

The Padres are just 7-11 at home this season and have lost 4 of their last 5 at Petco. San Diego is 15-18 against the spread (ATS).

The Reds have been among the most fickle teams in the MLB, having traded off winning and losing in their last 5 games, going 2-3 straight up (SU). They 7-7 SU on the road and 17-13 ATS overall.

Reds at Padres projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Ashcraft (3-1, 4.40 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 28 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at Texas Rangers Friday
  • Reds are 3-2 in his 5 starts
  • 2024 road splits: 1-1, 2.00 ERA (18 IP, 4 ER), 16 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 16 K in 3 starts
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-0, 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 10 K in 2 starts last season

Musgrove (3-3, 6.94 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 35 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-3 home defeat to the Philadelphia Phillies Friday
  • Padres are 4-3 in his 7 starts
  • 2024 home splits: 2-3, 6.49 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 31 H, 8 HR, 7 BB, 22 K in 5 starts
  • Career vs. Reds: 6-2, 3.83 ERA (54 IP, 23 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 10 outings (9 starts), including 3-0 in last 4 starts

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Reds at Padres odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:39 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Reds +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Padres -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Reds +1.5 (-188) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Reds at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Padres 4

Moneyline

BET REDS (+116).

The Reds haven’t put together many long stretches of wins or losses this season, and they are 9-4 SU following a loss, which they are coming off of Tuesday.

Ashcraft has also been far better on the road than at home while the opposite can be said for Musgrove, who is coming off one of his worst starts of the season.

The Padres are just 7-8 SU as home favorites this season. Couple their struggling pitcher with how disappointing they’ve been at home, and the Padres are worth fading. Back REDS (+116).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Reds +1.5 (-188) are far too expensive as run-line underdogs, while Musgrove and the Padres -1.5 (+155), who haven’t rewarded bettors at home, aren’t worth a play as favorites. AVOID a run-line play.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8 (-112).

The Reds are 16-13-1 O/U on the season and have gone Over in 2 of their last 4, scoring at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 4. The Reds are 4-1 O/U in Ashcraft’s 5 starts.

The Padres are 17-15-1 O/U on the season and have allowed at least 8 runs in 3 of their last 6 games, going 4-2 O/U in that span. They are 5-2 O/U in Musgrove’s 7 starts.

Considering those trends, back OVER 8 (-112).

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Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (16-13) and San Diego Padres (14-18) meet Tuesday as they continue a 3-game set in Southern California. The first pitch at PETCO Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 1-0

The Reds collected 5 extra-base hits in taking Monday’s opener 5-2. They are 2-2 on their road trip that opened against the Texas Rangers over the weekend.

San Diego has lost 5 in a row; the Padres are just 6-12 at home. The Padres had just 4 hits and struck out 14 times Monday.

Reds at Padres projected starters

RHP Nick Martinez vs RHP Yu Darvish

Martinez (0-1, 5.48 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He owns a 1.39 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 23 IP across 5 games (3 starts)

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 5 ER, 11 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 5-0 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Thursday
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K
  • Owns a 4.36 ERA across a 665-inning MLB career

Darvish (0-1, 4.18 ERA) is making his 6th start. He owns a 1.27 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 23 2/3 IP.

  • Coming off the IL (neck tightness) to make this start; last started April 14
  • Career vs. Reds: 4-3, 3.34 ERA (62 IP, 23 ER), 48 H, 20 BB, 82 K
  • Owns a PETCO ERA of 3.49 over 49 career starts

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Reds at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-150) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Reds at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

Martinez has done well to avoid walks and hard contact. He’s been undone somewhat by a .359 batting average on balls in play.

The Reds have been hurt by a 1-4 mark in 1-run games and figure as being a bit better than where they stand through the 1st month. Drawing Darvish off an injury swings the pendulum to some value on the plus-money here.

TAKE CINCINNATI (+135).

Run line/Against the spread

More juice equals more problems. PASS.

Over/Under

The Under 8 cashed in Monday’s opener. The Under is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 games and is a moderate lean here.

Martinez has expected-ERA numbers flying under the radar and under his surface mark. Both bullpens are decent and in decent shape at the back to provide quality innings.

Both offenses have clocked sub-.650 OPS numbers since April 17.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-105).

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Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (15-13) and San Diego Padres (14-17) meet Monday as they open a 3-game set in Southern California. The first pitch in Monday’s series opener at PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2024; last season the clubs played to a 3-3 split

Cincinnati is continuing a road trip that opened with the club dropping 2 of 3 weekend games at the Texas Rangers. The Reds have slashed a .176/.266/.232 while going 1-3 over their last 4 games.

The Padres tote a 4-game losing streak into this series. Over the 4 losses (with the last 3 coming at home against the Philadelphia Phillies), San Diego pitching allowed 11 home runs while clocking an 8.23 ERA.

Reds at Padres projected starters

LHP Nick Lodolo vs. RHP Matt Waldron

Lodolo (2-0, 2.12 ERA) is tabbed for his 4th start. He has logged a 1.06 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 17 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 7-4 win vs. Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K
  • Owns a 4.07 ERA across 29 career starts

Waldron (1-2, 3.96 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has registered a 1.44 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 25 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 5-2 win at Colorado Rockies Wednesday
  • Career vs. Reds: 0-0, 5.79 ERA (4 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K
  • Owns a 4.21 ERA across 66 1/3 career IP

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Reds at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Padres -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+155) | Padres +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Reds at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Reds 3

Moneyline

The Reds are 1-11 across their last dozen games at Petco. Last season, the Padres outscored Cincy 16-6 while taking 2 of 3 in the series games played in Southern California.

Lodolo figures to see a lot of right-handed bats in the Padres lineup. Righties got to him for a robust 1.071 OPS last season.

The other side of the platoon numbers shows the Reds being a swing-and-miss bunch against right-handers (28.7% strikeout rate, .668 OPS).

Add in the Cincy bullpen likely being a bit too far over its skis with a 3.75 ERA; the Reds have benefited from yielding just a .270 batting average on balls in play.

BACK THE PADRES (-110).

Run line/Against the spread

These tags bring more juice into play. STEER CLEAR.

Over/Under

The Under has cashed in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games on the road.

Both offenses have some BABIP figures that have over-inflated run scoring a bit. In high-leverage situations, both clubs rank in the league’s top-5 in OPS, but both have registered BABIP numbers over .320 in those situations.

With the contest being in a pitcher’s park, TAKE THE UNDER 8 (-115).

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Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cincinnati Reds (12-16) and San Diego Padres (15-14) open up a 3-game set at Petco Park Monday. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023. San Diego won 6-0 in 2022.

The Reds had a 5-game win streak snapped with a 5-4 loss at the Oakland Athletics Sunday. Their young arms are carrying them as the Reds are 4th in baseball with 9.80 strikeouts/game. The Reds are just 3-10 on the road to start the season but they are 7-3 against lefties, which they face Monday.

The Friars are starting to heat up as they’re 7-3 over their last 10 games. They’re doing it with 3B Manny Machado hitting .236, and OF Juan Soto hitting just .202 to start the season. The Padres are hitting just .227 as a team (25th) and are 20th with 4.24 runs/9.

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Reds at Padres projected starters

RHP Luke Weaver vs. LHP Blake Snell

Weaver (0-1, 7.71 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 12.3 K/9 through 11 2/3 IP.

  • Has made just 3 starts since 2021 due to injuries; has allowed 19 ER over 15 1/3 IP across those outings
  • Last 5 starts vs. San Diego (2019-21): 1-3, 4.87 ERA, 20 K in 20 1/3 IP

Snell (0-4, 5.48 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.87 WHIP, 7.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 23 IP.

  • Last start vs. Chicago Cubs Tuesday: 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 K
  • Has never faced the Reds
  • Has at least 3 BB and 5 K in each of his last 4 starts

Reds at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:07 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Reds +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-105) | Padres -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Reds at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 8, Padres 6

Moneyline

I’m going to go out on a limb and go with the Reds here. The Padres have the talent to make this a foolish take, but the Reds stacked up some wins lately. They are an aforementioned 7-3 against left-handed starters. The Padres have lost each of Snell’s 5 starts this year. Weaver is a former top prospect that has 8 K’s in each start, his stuff is still there.

I’ll take the REDS (+185).

Run line/Against the spread

To further illustrate my ML take, the Reds are led by young, hungry hitters like 2B Jonathan India hitting .287 with a .393 OBP atop the order. OF TJ Friedl is hitting .301 with a .353 OBP.  They also sport an improved bullpen at a respectable 3.55 ERA (T-11th). The Padres’ pen is 22nd with a 4.43 ERA.

There’s a lot to like with REDS +1.5 (-105).

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Over/Under

The park might play a little bigger Monday at 58 degrees with an 11-mph wind going toward the right-field foul pole. Snell has spotted at least 2 ER per start and hasn’t gone past the 5th inning all year. Combine that with a bad bullpen, and Over 8.5 looks very reasonable. The Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Take the OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (2-9) and San Diego Padres (7-5) tangle in the middle game of a 3-game set at Petco Park Tuesday at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: San Diego leads 1-0 after a 4-1 victory in Monday’s opener.

Cincinnati is 0-7 with an OPS under-.600 across its last 7 games.

The Padres are 7-1 against the Reds the last two seasons (2021-22). The Friars have held Cincy to just 3.50 runs per game over that stretch.

Reds at Padres: Projected starters

LHP Reiver Sanmartin vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Sanmartin (0-1, 6.14 ERA) makes his second start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 6.1 BB/9, and 4.9 K/9 through 7 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 5R on 8 base runners in 2 2/3-inning start April 8. Then clocked 5 shutout relief innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday.
  • Appeared in 2 games (2R in 11 2/3 IP) in his 2021 debut season.

Musgrove (1-0, 1.42 ERA) is tabbed for his third start. He has a 0.71 WHIP, 0.0 BB/9, and 10.0 K/9 through 12 2/3 IP.

  • Tossed 6 2/3 IP of shutout ball against the Atlanta Braves Thursday (0 BB, 6K).
  • Cincinnati batters own a high-contact .804 OPS against him.

Reds at Padres odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Padres -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-130) | Padres -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Reds at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Padres 4

Money line

San Diego closer Taylor Rogers has pitched in the last 2 games and likely does not go in this one. And a couple other arms in the back end of the Padres bullpen may also be in rest mode.

The Reds’ lefty bats are a good weapon against Musgrove, who has had his trouble with Cincinnati in general. On a small-to-moderate lean, BACK CINCINNATI (+160).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS: the outright odds on Cincy are the better play.

Over/Under

Both clubs have faced exceptional pitching thus far, and both can expect some positive regression on offense. With this pitching match-up, its fair to assume Tuesday’s game being part of that regression.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-107).

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Cincinnati Red at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (35-34) hope to pick up a win in the final game of their four-game series against the San Diego Padres (41-32) Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 2-9 with a 5.83 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 71 IP over 14 starts.

The Reds have won two of his last three starts after losing nine of them in a row. He pitched seven scoreless innings Tuesday at Milwaukee in his last outing.

RHP Dinelson Lamet is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 1-2 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 27 IP over 7 starts and 2 relief appearances.

Lamet has only pitched 5 full innings once this season and the Padres have lost his last three starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Padres -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Padres 4, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

The Reds have lost the first three games of this series after winning their six previous outings and had won their last eight road games before going to San Diego.

The Padres entered this series having lost nine of their previous 11 games but have turned it around against the Reds, improving their record to 24-14 at home.

The pitching matchup favors the Padres, as the Reds are 3-11 when Castillo starts. The last time Castillo pitched seven scoreless innings in a start he followed it up in his next start by allowing four runs in five frames.

Take the PADRES (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Reds are only 31-38 ATS this season but are 18-19 ATS on the road. They have not covered the spread in any of the three previous games in this series but had done so in 11 of their previous 13 games. Six of Castillo’s last eight starts have resulted in losses of at least two runs.

The Padres are an even 19-19 ATS at home now that they have covered all three games in this series. Eight of their last nine victories have been by at least two runs.

Take the PADRES -1.5 (+125).

Over/Under (O/U)

Only 44.7% of the games at Petco Park this season have gone Over the projected total.

The Padres’ last five games have hit the Over and while seven of the last 10 for the Reds went Over.

However, I expect a solid pitching performance from Lamet and for the bats to cool on this Sunday afternoon.

Take UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (35-33) visit the San Diego Padres (40-32) Saturday at Petco Park for the third game of their four-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego clobbered Cincinnati Friday 8-2 as the first four Padres hitters combined to go 7-for-17 with 3 doubles, 1 home run and 5 RBIs.

Season series: Padres lead 2-0.

RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez makes his fifth career start for the Reds. He is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA (23 IP, 7 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in his rookie season.

  • Last outing: Win, 10-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K Monday at the Milwaukee Brewers.

RHP Miguel Díaz is the projected starter for the Padres. Díaz is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 over one start and 10 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Diaz appeared in relief duty with 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 2 K in San Diego’s 3-2 loss Monday at the Colorado Rockies.
  • Diaz hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any outing this season and this move was made by the Padres to re-align their rotation for an upcoming series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:41 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -165 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 5, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

It’s a “bullpen day” for the Padres (-165) who are quite literally planning ahead for the Dodgers next week.

This could be a mistake for this game because the REDS (+140) have a solid lineup and Gutiérrez is a promising young pitcher who hasn’t surrendered more than two earned runs in a start this season.

For instance, Cincinnati’s lineup ranks in the top-10 of advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate.

Also, Gutiérrez grades in the 85th percentile or better in expected opponent’s wOBA, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate.

“LEAN” to the REDS (+140) for a half unit because I like Cincinnati’s First 5 Innings run line price as well.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the REDS +0.5 (-110) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit since we get a half-run worth of insurance for Gutiérrez who’s pitched at least five innings in each start and gave up just one earned run in his one loss this year.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8.5 (+100) since it’s priced at even money. San Diego’s lineup has been a little underwhelming thus far but the Padres relievers make up a top-tier bullpen.

However, I’d rather consolidate my Reds-Padres budget to the Cincinnati side and not throw money at the total.

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Cincinnati Red at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (35-32) face the San Diego Padres (39-32) in the second game of a four-game series Friday night. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tony Santillan is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is making just his second MLB start after allowed 1 ER on 5 H and 4 BB with 5 K over 4 2/3 IP against the Colorado Rockies Sunday.

The Reds picked up a 6-2 win in Santillan’s debut.

RHP Chris Paddack is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 3-5 with a 4.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 58 2/3 IP over 12 starts.

The Padres are 7-5 with Paddack on the mound. He has had quality starts in four of his last five appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Padres -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-110) | Padres -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Reds 4, Padres 3

Money line (ML)

The Reds had their six-game winning streak snapped Thursday night with their 6-4 loss to the Padres in the series opener. They are 19-16 on the road this season.

The Padres are 22-14 at Petco Park. Before Thursday night’s win over the Reds, they had lost seven of their previous nine games. They are 2-3 at home when Paddack starts.

Give a slight LEAN to REDS (+180).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Reds are 31-36 ATS overall this season and 18-17 ATS on the road. They covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 games.

The Padres are 17-19 ATS at home this season but covered the spread in only five of their last 18 games.

Expecting an outright win by the Reds, you can give yourself a one-run cushion with your bet. Take the REDS +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Reds have the third-highest Over percentage in the league at 60.9%. Five of their last eight games went over the projected total.

However, only 41.7% of the Padres’ home games have hit the Over.

Take UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (35-31) and San Diego Padres (38-32) match up Thursday for the opener of a four-game series. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Wade Miley is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 6-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 61 2/3 IP over 11 starts. Miley will kick off the series, the first of the season between these two teams. Miley, who tossed a no-hitter earlier in the season, allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 18 innings.

RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. He is 4-6 with a 2.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 12.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 72 IP over 12 starts and one relief appearance. Musgrove’s record does not do him justice. His 96 strikeouts are tied for 16th in the majors. However, Musgrove has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last two starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Reds at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-145) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Reds 5, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

BET the Reds (+145) because one of these teams is on fire and the other isn’t. It’s that simple. The Reds have won six straight, sweeping the Milwaukee Brewers on the road after sweeping the Colorado Rockies in Cincy. They Reds have won 13 of their last 16.

The Padres have lost 7 of their last 8.

Along those lines, the Reds still have the worst bullpen ERA, but over the last week, they rank within the top five in reliever ERA. That’s a huge note as the Reds have been killed late in games this season.

For the Padres to come out on top, they’ll need a stellar performance from Musgrove, who has reached double-figure in strikeouts four times this season.

The momentum is with Reds (+145), and as underdogs, they have the best value.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. Despite losing five of their last six, the Padres have lost just two of those by more than one run.

They have kept games close, and that doesn’t bode well for San Diego -1.5 (+120). Along those lines, the Reds have the momentum, and the better value is betting they win than betting they lose by one.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 7.5 (-105). Both starting pitchers have dominant performances this season, but each has struggled at times as well.

The Reds hitting is starting to come around. LF Jesse Winker and RF Nick Castellanos rank first and third, respectively, in OPS in the National League.

For the Padres, they’ve been led by SS Fernando Tatís Jr. He leads the NL in home runs (21), is tied for the league lead in stolen bases and is second in RBIs (48).

The Reds have scored 10 or more runs in three of their last six games, while the Padres have averaged 5 runs per game over their last four.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Nathan Beighle on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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