Reds Nationals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cincinnati Reds (48-39) and Washington Nationals (34-52) wrap up a 4-game set Thursday at Nationals Park. First pitch is set for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 3-0 after Wednesday’s 9-2 victory

The Reds have re-taken a 2-game lead in the NL Central with 3 straight wins in the nation’s capital. Cincinnati has won 4 in a row overall, and it has cut its run differential down to minus-8 on the season by outscoring Washington 20-8 in the first 3 games.

The Nationals had won 3 straight series coming into Monday’s game, but Washington is guaranteed of losing this series regardless of Thursday’s outcome. The Nats have struggled in the pitching department lately, allowing 43 runs across the past 5 games as the Over has gone 3-1-1.

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Reds at Nationals projected starters

LHP Brandon Williamson vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore

Williamson (1-2, 5.56 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 across 43 2/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 12-5 home loss vs. the San Diego Padres Saturday
2023 road splits: 1-1, 5.82 ERA (17 IP, 11 ER – 2 HR) with a .266 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts

Gore (4-7, 4.48 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 88 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 19-4 road loss vs. the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
2023 home splits: 1-4, 4.75 ERA (36 IP, 19 ER – 7 HR) with a .303 OBA in 7 starts

Reds at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:03 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Reds +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-190) | Nationals -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Reds at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 6, Reds 5

Moneyline

The NATIONALS (-120) are worth a look in the series finale as Washington looks to salvage at least one victory in the 4-game set.

The first-place Reds have looked good so far in this series, but Williamson has been quite erratic in his rookie season — especially on the road.

Cincinnati is just 7-15 in its last 22 road games against a left-handed starting pitcher and 3-10 in the past 13 in Game 4 of a series, too.

Run line/Against the spread

The Reds +1.5 (-190) are quite expensive if you’d like a little insurance, and just don’t trust Cincinnati to finish off the 4-game sweep. With 2 shaky left-handed starting pitchers, no lead is going to be safe early in the contest.

PASS.

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Over/Under

OVER 10 (-105) is the lean as both Williamson and Gore have been very giving this season.

The Over is 5-0 in the past 5 road games for the Reds against left-handed starting pitchers and is 9-3 in their past 12 games overall. The Over is also 5-1 in Cincinnati’s past 6 vs. the NL East.

The Over has cashed at a 3-0-1 clip for the Nats in the past 4 games following a loss and is 3-1-1 in their past 5 games overall while going 4-1 in the previous 5 in Game 4 of a series, too.

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Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (47-39) and Washington Nationals (34-51) play the 3rd game of their 4-game set Wednesday night. First pitch from Nationals Park will be at 7:05 p.m. ET Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 2-0

The Reds are on a 3-game win streak, have won 6 of their last 7 and own a 1-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. Despite having the 4th-worst team ERA in the league (4.94), the Reds are still 8 games above .500 thanks to the major’s 7th-best run total (429).

The Nationals dropped the first 2 games of this series and have lost 3 of their last 4 after winning 5 of 6. Last in the NL East, they rank 26th in both runs scored (350) and team ERA (4.77).

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Reds at Nationals projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Ashcraft (3-6, 6.66 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 75 2/3 innings.

10.38 ERA in June (4 starts), even after allowing just 1 run in 6 2/3 innings in last start, a no-decision, Reds home win vs. San Diego Padres Friday
Reds are 2-5 in his last 7 starts

Gray (6-6, 3.30 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 95 1/3 innings.

Allowed just 1 earned run in last 2 starts, spanning 11 1/3 innings
Pitched at least 5 innings in each of last 6 starts

Reds at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:34 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Reds -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Nationals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+135) | Nationals +1.5 (-160)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Reds at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Nationals 3

Moneyline

The Reds have been excellent on the road, going 24-18 away from home this season. The Nationals, on the other hand, have been abysmal at home, for whatever reason, going 13-29 at Nationals Park.

Gray is the one who complicates this bet a little bit because he has pitched well for Washington, but the Reds are simply the better team and have outscored the Nationals 11-6 in the 1st 2 games of this series already.

BET REDS (-120) to win outright.

Run line/Against the spread

It’s a bit risky betting the Reds to cover the run line with Ashcraft on the bump, but he was solid in his last start, allowing just 1 earned run in 6 2/3 innings. The Nationals have struggled to keep games close when they are on the losing end, with 9 of their last 10 losses coming by at least 2 runs.

DIVVY UP 1.5 UNITS between the REDS MONEYLINE (-120) and the REDS SPREAD -1.5 (+135) however you see fit.

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Over/Under

The Over is 1-1 in this series so far but with Gray on the mound for Washington, he could limit the damage done by Cincinnati’s potent lineup. Plus, if Ashcraft pitches the way he did in his last outing, the Reds shouldn’t have much trouble keeping the Nationals in check.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-110).

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Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with expert MLB picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cincinnati Reds (45-39) and the Washington Nationals (34-49) begin a 4-game set Monday at Nationals Park. First pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting in 2023; Nationals won 4-3 in 2022

The Reds are tied for 1st place in the NL Central with the Milwaukee Brewers heading into the new week. Cincinnati took 2 of 3 games from San Diego at Great American Ball Park over the weekend, including a 4-3 victory Sunday, and the Red Legs have picked up 16 wins in their past 20 games dating back to June 10.

The Nationals took 2 of 3 games from the division-rival Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend in the City of Brotherly Love, including a 5-4 win in the finale on Sunday. Washington has shown some “Natitude” lately, winning 6 of its last 8 games.

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Reds at Nationals projected starters

RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Jake Irvin

Weaver (1-2, 6.96 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 across 64 2/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in an 11-7 road win vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday
2023 road splits: 0-2, 6.11 ERA (35 1/3 IP, 24 ER – 5 HR) with a .322 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts

Irvin (1-4, 4.72 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 through 47 2/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 K in a 7-4 road win vs. the Seattle Mariners Tuesday
2023 home splits: 0-3, 5.28 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER) with a .248 OBA in 7 starts

Reds at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+120) | Nationals +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Reds at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 6, Reds 5

Moneyline

The NATIONALS (+105) are a solid play as home ‘dogs, although this will be a nail-biter with a lot of runs and likely plenty of lead changes.

Both starting pitchers in this matchup are very shaky, so no lead will be safe. Washington should be able to keep its positive momentum going against Weaver, who has easily been the weakest link in the Cincinnati rotation.

Run line/Against the spread

The NATIONALS +1.5 (-145) aren’t priced out of line if you just can’t pick Washington straight up and would prefer a little insurance instead.

The Nats are just 28-64 in the past 92 home games — just a .304 winning percentage — but they’ve won 4 of the past 5 games overall and have toppled Cincinnati 27 times in their last 39 meetings in D.C.

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Over/Under

OVER 10 (-115) is a solid play as Weaver and Irvin have been extremely giving. Weaver has a 6.11 ERA and .322 OBA across 35 1/3 innings across 7 road starts and Irvin has a 5.28 ERA across 30 2/3 innings in 7 home outings.

Those numbers suggest we should see plenty of offense, and additionally, batters will be aided by a 7-10 mph wind blowing out to the right-center field power alley.

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Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (20-25) visit the nation’s capital Tuesday to start a three-game set with the Washington Nationals (20-23) at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincinnati, which is 3-8 in its last 11 games, lost back-to-back games to the Milwaukee Brewers to drop its previous series 2-1 after being swept in a four-game series by the San Francisco Giants.

Washington swept the Baltimore Orioles in a three-game series this past weekend and has won seven of the past 11 games.

Season series: 0-0.

RHP Tyler Mahle is on the hill for the Reds. Mahle is 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA (45 IP, 21 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 across nine starts.

Last outing: Loss, 19-4, in 2 IP with 7 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K vs. the Giants Thursday.
Career vs. the Nationals: 1-1 with a 12.15 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 2.10 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 over two starts.
- Vs. Nationals on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .295/.413/.525 slash line, 15/11 K/BB, 4 HR and 14 RBIs.

RHP Max Scherzer is the projected starter for the Nationals. Scherzer is 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA (56 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 12.1 K/9 across nine starts.

Last outing: Win, 4-3, in 5 IP with 2 ER, 5 H, 4 BB and 8 K Wednesday at the Chicago Cubs.
Career vs. the Reds: 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.90 WHIP and 13.7 K/9 over seven starts.
- Vs. Reds on the current roster: 101 at-bats with a .158/.234/.287 slash line, 45/9 K/BB, 3 HR and 9 RBIs.

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Reds at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:39 a.m. ET.

Money line: Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Nationals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-145) | Nationals -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Nationals 8, Reds 1

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Nationals (-175) since I’d entertain throwing Washington’s money line into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite for a plus-money payout.

However, outright I’m going to stay away because of how inconsistent Washington’s lineup has been thus far and 2021 baseball being a three-outcome sport (walk, strikeout or home run).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the NATIONALS -1.5 (+120) for 1 unit because of their overwhelming starting pitching edge and their lineup should be able to add to any lead against Cincinnati’s weak bullpen.

Scherzer’s basic pitching numbers against this Cincinnati lineup are awesome and his advanced pitching numbers are even more impressive.

Statcast tracked 45 plate appearances by Reds on the current roster vs. Scherzer and he has an absurd 51.1% strikeout rate with a 1.58 FIP and .223 wOBA.

Mahle’s advanced pitching numbers vs. this Washington roster is even more worrisome than his basic stats.

Mahle has a 6.68 FIP with a .385 wOBA and just a 20.8% strikeout rate against the Nationals (72 plate appearances).

Furthermore, Cincinnati relievers are 23rd in both WAR and SIERA, 22nd in home runs allowed per nine innings and 28th in xFIP.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-105) despite what my predicted score is because Scherzer is on the mound and Washington has the highest Under percentage. However, Cincinnati has the highest Over percentage.

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