The Cincinnati Reds (16-21) battle the Miami Marlins (19-19) in a 3-game series starting Friday. First pitch from loanDepot Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Reds won 4 of 7 games in 2022
The Reds are coming off a 5-0 win over New York Thursday afternoon, winning the series 2-1. Cincinnati is 4-4 in its last 8.
The Marlins have been extremely streaky this season with two 4-game winning streaks and a 4-game and 5-game losing streak. Miami has won 3 of its last 4, yet has lost 6 of its last 9.
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Reds at Marlins projected starters
RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Eury Perez
Ashcraft (2-1, 3.82 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.
- Reds are 4-3 in his 7 starts
- Last start: 1 2/3 IP, 6 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K in 17-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Sunday
- 2 career starts vs. Marlins: 1-0, 1.80 ERA, 15 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Perez makes his MLB debut on Friday.
- Will become the youngest pitcher in Marlins history, having turned 20 less than a month ago
- Was 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in 6 starts with the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos
Reds at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Marlins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-165) | Marlins -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.0 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Reds at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Marlins 5, Reds 2
Moneyline
PASS.
The Reds are just 4-12 on the road while Miami is 10-9 at home. While the Marlins haven’t been overly impressive at loanDepot Park, the Reds have been straight-up bad on the road and aren’t worthy of a moneyline play at (+120).
The Marlins are too expensive on the moneyline as well. Pass these bets and focus on the spread.
Run line/Against the spread
BET MARLINS -1.5 (+145).
The Reds are 3-6 over their last 9 road games and have failed to cover a 1-run spread in 4 of them. They failed to cover 2 of 3 games against the Padres in their last road series.
Cincinnati has also traded off winning and losing over its last 6 games, so it is primed to lose per its recent trends. The Marlins are starting one of the most-talked-about prospects in Perez, and the expectations are big.
They rank 30th in runs per game yet 14th in batting average (.246). The runs should come in as they continue to hit well. Expect improvement and, at home, take the MARLINS -1.5 (+145) given the value.
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Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 8.0 (-105).
The Reds have gone Under in 5 of their last 8 games. Miami, on the other hand, is 16-20-2 O/U on the season and has gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games.
Ashcraft had success last season against Miami, and the Reds won’t have much to go on as Perez makes his debut. Both pitchers could have success in this battle.
Take the UNDER 8.0 (-115).
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