Tag: Reds Cardinals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (56-86) and St. Louis Cardinals (84-59) open a 5-game series Friday. The contest at Busch Stadium is slated to begin at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: St. Louis leads 9-5

Cincinnati is coming off a 4-game home series against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Reds were swept while scoring just 8 total runs. Overall, Cincy has lost 6 games in a row and its pitchers own a 5.54 ERA over that stretch.

The Cardinals have hit their way to an 8-game lead in the NL Central by going 12-5 since Aug. 27. St. Louis has a solid .761 OPS over that stretch.

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Reds at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Chase Anderson vs. RHP Miles Mikolas

Anderson (0-3, 9.00 ERA) has logged a 1.67 WHIP, 9.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 9 IP across 4 games (3 starts).

  • Has spent much of this season at Triple-A where he owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 80 IP
  • Owns a 4.25 ERA across 194 career MLB games

Mikolas (11-11, 3.42 ERA) is tabbed for his 30th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 181 1/3 IP.

  • Owns a 5.06 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • Has registered a 2.23 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his 13 starts at home in 2022

Reds at Cardinals odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Cardinals -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (+102) | Cardinals -1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Reds at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 3

Money line

AVOID.

The sizable juice here is obscuring the true odds — and any profit potential — on both sides.

Run line/Against the spread

Both sides tend to play in fewer 1-run games than average. The last 8 games of the season series — which have included 5 Cardinals wins — have been games decided by multiple runs.

With this game being the lead edge of a series that includes a Saturday doubleheader, middle relief could be hung out to dry in the interest of avoiding late-series bullpen fatigue. That’s a St. Louis edge in this one.

BACK THE CARDINALS -1.5 (-125).

Over/Under

Both clubs have some real-versus-expected batting numbers and quality-of-contact stats that point to both offenses being a bit too far over their skis. However, Mikolas has some indicators that swing the other way — toward a higher total — and Anderson is a small-sample-size question mark.

PASS.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (34-57) close out the first half against the St. Louis Cardinals (50-44) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series:  The Cards lead 6-2.

This game has a 95% chance of rain, and considering it’s the last game before the All-Star break, they aren’t going to be very lenient in rain delays. Keep that in mind when placing wagers.

The Cards’ bats came alive for an 11-3 win Saturday. It was the first time they dropped a 10-spot since June 18. They’re battling wounded right now with 3B Nolan Arenado (back) iffy, OF Harrison Bader (foot), OF Juan Yepez (forearm) and C Yadier Molina (knee) already out and SS Edmundo Sosa (foot) possibly sidelined after he left Saturday’s game after crashing into the side wall. Despite all the injuries, they’ve won 5 of their last 7 contests.

The Reds had won 5 of their last 7 games entering the series, including taking 2-of-3 contests from the MLB-leading New York Yankees. They’ve allowed 18 runs in the first 2 games against St. Louis, though. Can they salvage a game against a Cards squad that always has trouble closing out sweeps?

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Reds at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. LHP Steven Matz

Ashcraft (4-2, 4.45 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 5.3 K/9 through 54 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed 4 ER on 9 H with 2 K in 4 2/3 IP in St. Louis June 12.
  • Is awful away from home with a 6.66 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 5 starts.

Matz (3-3, 6.03 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 37 1/3 IP.

  • Making his first start since May 22 due to a shoulder issue.
  • His numbers are a little deceiving as his walk rate is decent, and his K-rate is great, but he has allowed 15 ER in 5 IP over 2 bad starts; his ERA is 2.78 outside of those starts.
  • Held the Reds to 1 ER on 7 H and 2 BB with 6 K across 5 IP April 22.

Reds at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cardinals -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Reds at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 7, Cardinals 3

Money line

Matz was able to throw 81 pitches in his last rehab start, which means he should be good for 90 or so in this go-around. Anyone that follows the Cardinals knows — it’s kind of a running joke — that they have trouble sweeping teams. They’ve already had 2 chances to sweep the Reds this year and lost the finale both times. The same happens here as they’re short-handed and looking to get to the All-Star break as healthy as possible. Take the REDS (+145).

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Run line/Against the spread

The Reds are 42-49 on the RL on the season, which is 8 wins better than their actual record. They’re 23-22 on the RL on the road. There could be some fireworks in this game, too, as the Reds hit 4 Cardinals batters Saturday. I like the Reds to win, and as long as the RL stays at a reasonable price – I’m in for REDS +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under

The Reds hit 4 Cardinals batters Saturday, and there could be some fireworks in this one. The Over has cashed in 4 straight between these teams, and this feels like a game that could wind up 13-4. Let’s LEAN OVER 9.5 (+100). It’s just a lean with the impending rain potentially shortening it.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (48-44) host the Cincinnati Reds (34-55) for the 1st of a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Busch Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: St. Louis leads 4-2, winning both previous series 2-1.

The Reds come into this series as hot as they’ve been all season, beating the Yankees in 2 of 3 following a 3-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. Cincinnati has won 6 of its last 7.

St. Louis will get a healthy dose of the Reds as they play 6 straight games, each team’s first series immediately following the All-Star break. The Cardinals have won 3 of their last 5, but just 5 of their last 15.

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Reds at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Hunter Greene vs. RHP Andre Pallante

Greene (3-10, 5.70 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.

  • Was impressive his last time on the mound with 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB and 9 K in a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay. The Reds are just 4-13 with Greene as the starting pitcher.
  • In his 2 games against St. Louis, both losses, Greene has allowed 6 H and 4 ER  in 8 1/3 IP. He has given up a league-high 22 HR.

Pallante (2-4, 3.18 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.43WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 65 IP.

  • Making his 26th appearances this season. Has pitched against the Reds twice, allowing just 5 hits and no earned runs in 6 2/3 IP.
  • First season in the big leagues after being the Cardinals 4th-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft.

Reds at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:49 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Cardinals -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-145) | Cardinals -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Reds at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 2

Money line

PASS.

If there is value on the money line, it’s backing the Reds, but with the track record Green has had this season, I’d be hesitant to back Cincinnati. St. Louis at -170 is just too pricey to consider.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET CARDINALS -1.5 (+120).

The Reds might be hot, but on the season, they are still are one of the worst road teams in the MLB. Cincinnati sits 28th in away runs and 25th in away batting average.

Couple that with St. Louis having the 6th-best home batting average, and the edge goes to the Cardinals. St. Louis is also in the top half of the league in home runs, which Greene gives up many of.

The Cardinals are 3-3 on the run line against Cincinnati this season, and at this value, backing St. Louis makes sense.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).

In the 6 games these teams have played, this total would have been 4-2 with 4 of the 6 games not reaching a combined 7 runs. St. Louis is 42-46-4 O/U this season.

St. Louis has also gone under this total in 4 of the 6 games which Pallante has gone more than 3 innings. Cincinnati is 4-4 O/U over their last 8 as well, so despite being hot, it hasn’t necessarily translated to big-time games at the plate.

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (20-39) try to salvage a game against the St. Louis Cardinals (34-26) Sunday in the finale of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is set for 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Cardinals lead the series 4-1.

The Cardinals have been victorious, 2-0 and 5-4, but they have not played well in the series. They scored 2 runs off of Reds errors Friday night, and they were down to their last out when SS Tommy Edman hit a 2-run walkoff homer Saturday. Before that, though, they lost the tying run trying to steal third with 1 out in the 8th inning, and another player was benched for poor effort.

The Reds were up 4-1 in the 8th Saturday after RHP Hunter Greene allowed 1 run on 2 hits and 2 walks with 7 Ks over 5 innings. Their bullpen couldn’t hold it. It’s also cooked for this game, and they’ll need length out of a rookie starter. SS Kyle Farmer had 4 singles Saturday.

Reds at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Dakota Hudson

Ashcraft (3-0, 1.14 ERA) makes his 5th career start. He has a 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 4.9 K/9 in 23 2/3 IP.

  • Utilizes a cutter (98-mph average), slider, fastball (97-mph average) and sinker.
  • Has a .197 BABIP, which means he’s pretty lucky on batted balls becoming outs, and that ERA might not be sustainable much longer.
  • First time facing the Cardinals.

Hudson (4-2, 2.76 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 58 2/3 IP.

  • Threw 6 2/3 shutout innings allowing 2 H, 4 BB with 4 K in April 23 victory over the Reds.
  • Has 6-0 record with a 2.29 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 9 career games (8 starts) against the Reds.
  • Current Reds hitters have hit just .180 with a 23.9 K% in 71 plate appearances against him.

Reds at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Reds +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Cardinals -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-135) | Cardinals -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Reds at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Reds 3

Money line

It’s really tempting to fade the Cards because they have trouble sweeping opponents, and their first 2 wins in the series were gifts. Hudson has been too good against the Reds, though. Ashcraft throws hard and could give the Cards trouble, but he only has 13 Ks in 23 2/3 innings, and that BABIP will regress. That said, we’re not risking twice our payout in this one. LEAN CARDINALS FIRST 9 INNINGS (incl. Tie) -160.

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Run line/Against the spread

I like the Reds +1.5 side, but I don’t like the idea of paying the -135 price tag for a bad team to stay within a run. The Cards haven’t played well enough to warrant the -1.5 risk either. PASS.

Over/Under

The temperature is slated to be 95 degrees with a small gust blowing out to right-center field. There is a 38% chance of rain, too, which could alter some things. The Over snuck by Saturday, but that was the first time in the last 6 games between these 2 that it cashed. Again, it’s just a lean because of the unpredictable nature of the Cards’ offense and the Reds’ starter, but LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-122).

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (75-67) and St. Louis Cardinals (71-69) meet Saturday for the second game of a three-game series at Busch Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Louis Castillo is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. He is 7-15 with a 4.20 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 over 163 IP across 29 starts.

  • Owns a 3.43 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in the second half but even then has not pitched well away from home (6.45 ERA on the road).
  • Current St. Louis batters own an aggregate .793 OPS against him.

RHP Miles Mikolas is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 through 21 1/3 IP over five starts for the Redbirds.

  • Has yielded 4 ER in each of his last two starts. He owns a 5.71 ERA in four starts since his Aug. 20 return to action after a stint on the 60-day injured list for a forearm injury suffered in late May.
  • Current Cincinnati bats own a collective .936 OPS and .333 isolated power against Mikolas.

Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:51 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+130) | Cardinals +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Cardinals 4, Reds 3

Money line (ML)

The Reds won Friday’s series opener 4-2. Cincinnati has struggled since going 10-2 over a 12-game stretch from late July to early August. The Reds are 14-16 over their last 30 games. Over that stretch, they are 7-10 with a .687 OPS on the road.

The Cards are just 2-5 in their last seven games. St. Louis has been a solid fade candidate for much of the second half of the season, but they have recently swung around to a state of equilibrium.

Add to that some growing fade on the Reds and the fact that Cincy often struggles away from its home yard.  The Cardinals have had the better bullpen over the last five or six weeks, and the back end of that bullpen is in better shape than its Cincy counterpart heading into Saturday night.

BACK THE CARDINALS (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line unless the St. Louis price drops to -150 or better.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is not much to go on here except for some slight lean toward the starting pitching and some fade the Reds offense.

Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8.5 (-125).

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Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (74-67) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (71-68) Friday to start a three-game series at Busch Stadium with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Reds lead 9-7.

RHP Tyler Mahle is on the rubber for the Reds. Mahle is 11-5 with a 3.76 ERA (153 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 over 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 5 BB and 8 K Saturday vs. the Detroit Tigers.
  • Mahle is 2-0 this season against St. Louis with a 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 7 BB and 22 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (171 PA): 4.53 FIP with a .234 batting average (BA), .308 wOBA, .412 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 24.6 K% and 87.4 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Jon Lester is St. Louis’s projected starter. Lester is 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA (112 1/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 23 starts for the Cardinals and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 2 K in St. Louis’s 6-5 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday.
  • Lester beat Cincy, 3-1, Aug. 30 with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
  • vs. Reds on the current roster (253 PA): 4.78 FIP with a .249 BA, .324 wOBA, .439 xSLG, 20.6 K% and 87.2 mph EV.

Reds at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cardinals +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Reds -1.5 (+133) | Cardinals +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Cardinals 5, Reds 2

Money line (ML)

There was a heavy discrepancy between the “pros” and “joes” in the early morning action report that shaped the line most of us are looking at currently.

Two-thirds of the cash was on the Cardinals’ money line but nearly 60% of all bets placed were with the Reds, according to Pregame.com.

However, the oddsmakers sided with the presumed “sharp” money and have moved the line slightly in St. Louis’s direction, which started with the Reds laying -135 on the consensus money line.

I’d guess the sharp line movement is due to the fact that Cincy’s lineup ranks 28th in wRC+, 26th in wOBA and the sixth-highest K% against left-handed pitching.

St. Louis’s lineup has hit much better than Cincy’s recently. The Cardinals have a 111 wRC+ (ranked seventh in MLB), 3.6 WAR (ranked fourth) and .334 wOBA (ranked eighth) over the last two weeks. Whereas the Reds rank 21st or 22nd in each of those metrics in that timespan.

BET 1 unit on the CARDINALS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Cardinals +1.5 (-165) because I like St. Louis’s money line and would love to get some insurance for that bet.

However, the Cardinals are 13-11 ATS as home underdogs and the Reds are 7-17 ATS as road favorites so I’d entertain throwing St. Louis’s run line in a parlay with a similarly priced side. But, as a standalone wager at this price point, PASS.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-122) for a tiny wager only because I much prefer the Cardinals outright than the total in this contest.

That said, Cincy’s lineup struggles to produce against lefties, St. Louis’s lineup is below-average across several advanced hitting categories and Mahle is a lot more effective on the road than at home.

For example, Mahle is 7-2 in 15 road starts this season with a 1.90 ERA (6.09 home ERA), 0.98 WHIP (1.50 home WHIP) and 3.6 K/BB (3.2 K/BB at home). In fact, Mahle has given up 4 home runs in his two home starts against the Cardinals this year and no homer in his start in St. Louis.

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