Tag: Reds Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Milwaukee Brewers (56-46) and the Cincinnati Reds (56-47) conclude a 3-game series at American Family Field on Wednesday. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 9-3.

The Reds beat the Brewers 4-3 Tuesday after losing the opener of the series  3-2 Monday, covering both games. Cincinnati is 28-21 on the road this season and is 6-4 over its last 10 games.

The Brewers are a 1/2 game ahead of the Reds in the NL Central. Milwaukee, 6-4 over its last 10, is 28-24 at home. Five of the last 6 games between these teams have been decided by 1 run. Milwaukee is 21-10 in division games.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Freddy Peralta

Lively (4-5, 3.88 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 60 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (3 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 9-6 home win versus the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday
• 2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.81 ERA (26 IP, 11 ER) in 4 starts
• Career vs. Brewers: 0-2, 3.78 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in 3 starts

Peralta (6-8, 4.72 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 103 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 R (6 ER), 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home loss versus the Atlanta Braves on Friday
• 2023 home stats: 4-4, 4.47 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 29 ER) in 11 starts
• Career vs. Brewers: 5-2, 3.13 ERA (72 IP, 25 ER) in 12 starts

Reds at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:38 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-165) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Brewers 4

Moneyline

LEAN REDS (+120).

Cincinnati has been one of the streakiest teams in the MLB and is 35-20 straight up following a win. It is also 22-19 straight up as a road underdog which is the 7th-highest road underdog win rate in the league.

The Brewers have not been great this season with Peralta on the mound, just 9-10. He has allowed at least 3 ER in 4 of his last 5 games, and with runs at a premium in this series, that could be problematic.

For a small unit, take REDS (+120).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Reds +1.5 (-165) is a safe play given how close this series has been, but  I wouldn’t suggest laying the juice here. Similarly, the Brewers have been able to consistently beat the Reds, but they haven’t done it by a wide margin, making -1.5 (+140) also a tough sell.

Cincinnati is 30-11 on the run line as a road underdog. Regardless, it is too expensive to play here.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-120).

Peralta has consistently allowed runs, and both teams showed some life in the final innings of Tuesday’s game, scoring 5 combined runs in the 9th.

The Reds are also 34-21 O/U following a win, the best Over percentage in the MLB. The Reds have scored 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 6 games. Having scored just 6 total runs in the last 2 games, expect a bounceback from Cincinnati.

Leaning more toward the Under consistently this season, Milwaukee is 24-24-1 O/U as a favorite. Back OVER 8.5 (-120).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (56-45) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (55-47) to American Family Field Tuesday. First pitch in the middle game of the 3-game series is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 9-2

The Brewers opened the series with a 3-2 win Monday, using RF Christian Yelich‘s walk-off hit in the bottom of the 9th to seal the deal. They are now 28-23 at home this season and 7-3 over their last 10 games.

Milwaukee has a 1 1/2-game advantage over the Reds in the NL Central. Cincinnati is just 5-5 over its last 10 games and 27-21 on the road this season. Its 5-game win streak was snapped with that opening loss.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

LHP Andrew Abbott vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Abbott (5-2, 2.10 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 55 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 R (0 ER), 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 5-1 home win versus the Giants on Thursday
• 2023 road stats: 3-1, 2.86 ERA (22 IP, 7 ER) in 4 starts
• Career vs. Brewers: 1-2, 4.41 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 8 ER) in 3 starts

Burnes (9-5, 3.49 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 121 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 8 IP, 0 R (0 ER), 2 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 4-0 win at the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday
• 2023 home stats: 4-2, 4.13 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 24 ER) in 9 starts
• Career vs. Reds: 4-1, 2.52 ERA (60 2/3 IP, 17 ER) in 7 starts, including a win on July 14 (6 scoreless IP)

Reds at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:46 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-160) | Brewers -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Reds 2

Moneyline

BET BREWERS (-155).

Burnes has been electric as of late for Milwaukee. The former Cy Young winner hasn’t allowed a run in his last 14 IP and has 23 K’s in that span. The Brewers have won 5 straight games with him on the mound, and Burnes has beaten the Reds 3 times in the last 2 months as well.

The Reds’ offense has struggled immensely lately, scoring more than 4 in just 3 of its last 6 games. Its lone score Monday was a 2-run HR by rookie SS Elly De La Cruz.

The Brewers have dominated the Reds, and that should continue Tuesday. Despite the juice, take BREWERS (-155).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There isn’t much value here. The Brewers have beaten the Reds in 5 straight games, but they have won 4 of those by a just 1 run, giving the -1.5 (+135) subpar value.

Despite Abbott’s success on the mound this season, the Reds +1.5 (-160) is too pricey to take here too. Ultimately play the Brewers to win outright for the best team-specific wager.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 8 (-115).

In the 3 games Burnes has pitched against Cincinnati, the Reds have scored 7 total runs. He has pitched 6 innings in each and allowed just 5 ER. The Brewers have gone Under in Burnes last 2 starts and have gone Under 10 of their last 11 games.

The Reds have gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games and in 10 of their last 12. Cincinnati is also just 20-26 O/U following a loss this season. Given the strong starting pitchers and recent trends, back UNDER 8 (-115).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @nathanbeighle_ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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The Milwaukee Brewers (55-44) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (55-46) to American Family Field for a 3-game series starting Monday. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 8-2

The Brewers have dominated the Reds this season and are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They are 1/2 game ahead of Cincinnati in the NL Central and are 27-23 at home. Milwaukee is coming off a 4-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, losing 2 of 3 in the series.

After losing 5 in a row, which included their 3-game series at home against Milwaukee, the Reds have won their last 5 games, sweeping the Arizona  Diamondbacks at home. Cincinnati is 27-20 on the road, the best winning percentage away from home in the division.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Colin Rea

Ashcraft (5-7, 5.77 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.54 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 92 2/3 innings.

• Allowed 2 ER against the San Francisco Giants on July 19, his 4th straight start with 2 or fewer ER
• In 7 road start he’s 2-1 with a 4.42 ERA

Rea (5-4, 4.64 ERA) makes his 17th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.

• Gave up 5 ER to the Reds on July 8th in an 8-5 loss for Milwaukee, his only time allowing more than 4 ER this season
• Brewers are 10-7 when he has pitched

Reds at Brewers odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:25 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +104 (bet $100 to win $104) | Brewers -122 (bet $122 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-184) | Brewers -1.5 (+152)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: -102)

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Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Brewers 3

Moneyline

TAKE REDS (+104).

The Reds are on fire as of late and have performed well this season on the road. Ashcraft is starting to heat up as well. After allowing 6-plus ER in 5 of his first 14 starts, he has allowed just 5 ER in his last 24 2/3 innings.

Cincinnati has been one of the streakiest teams in the MLB and the Reds are 35-19 following a win (2nd-best win rate following a win), which it is in this situation. Rea has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his last 6 starts. Ashcraft is performing better, and the Reds have been hot over the last week.

Take REDS (+104).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Simply put, there isn’t any value here. The Brewers have struggled as of late and 4 of their 8 wins against the Reds this season have come by just 1 run, having covered a -1.5 spread in 4 of 10 games. Milwaukee is 1-2 on the run line at home against Cincinnati this season.

There is some value in the Brewers -1.5 (+152) given the season-long trends, but I’d take Cincinnati on the moneyline over that. The Reds at +1.5 (-184) are too pricey to play on the run line either.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (-102).

The Reds pitching is what has them winning. They have gone Under in 4 of their last 5 games and in 9 of their last 11. Cincinnati has scored 5 or fewer runs in 8 of its last 11 as well.

The Brewers have gone Under in 2 straight games and in 9 of their last 10, scoring 4 or fewer in all 10. The last 4 games between these 2 teams have gone Under the projected total with 3 of the last 4 not even topping 3 runs.

Take UNDER 9 (-102).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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The Cincinnati Reds (49-40) square off with the Milwaukee Brewers (48-41) Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game set. First pitch from American Family Field is at 4:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Brewers lead 4-1

The Reds have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month but they lost the series opener 7-3 on Friday. Cincinnati recently reeled off 12 wins in a row and even with Friday’s loss is 20-5 in its last 25 contests.

The Brewers have also been playing well lately, as they have won 9 of their last 13 games. While Milwaukee has lost its lead in the NL Central to Cincinnati, Friday’s win puts it just a game behind the Reds.

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Reds at Brewers projected starters

RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Colin Rea

Weaver (2-2, 6.72 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 69 2/3 IP.

• The Reds have won Weaver’s last 7 turns despite him posting an 8.24 ERA while allowing batters a .961 OPS during that span
• Has recorded just 11 K with 10 BB over 22 1/3 IP across his last 5 outings
• 2023 road splits: 1-2, 5.80 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 through 40 1/3 IP across 8 starts

Rea (5-4, 4.40 ERA) makes his 15th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 75 2/3 IP.

• 2023 home splits: 2-2, 4.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.8 HR/9 and 8.3 K/9 across 36 IP over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
• Doesn’t get a ton of whiffs in general and has tallied just 8 K in 18 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts
• At Reds on June 3: Win, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in a 10-8 Brewer’s victory

Reds at Brewers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Brewers -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Reds at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 6, Reds 5

Moneyline

Milwaukee’s bats have heated up lately, as they have averaged 6.8 runs per game over their last 8 contests. They are certainly in a good spot against Weaver, who has struggled all season. Back the BREWERS (-130) to pick up a win and move back into a tie for the NL Central lead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Reds have lost by more than 1 run just 3 times in their last 25 games. The Brewers have the pitching edge and home-field advantage, but the Reds should keep this game close. Neither side of this wager looks like a good value so PASS.

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Over/Under

The Over has chased in 10 of the last 14 games for Cincinnati, as well as in 6 of the last 7 for Milwaukee. With two mediocre pitchers taking the mound against two hot offenses, we should see enough runs from both sides to push this total OVER 9.5 (-115).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @RuddHQ on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

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