Tag: Red Sox Mariners odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (1-2) and Seattle Mariners (2-1) meet Sunday for the finale of a 4-game series. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Seattle leads 2-1

Seattle picked up the 4-3 win in 10 innings over Boston Saturday while covering as a -148 home favorite. Sunday’s game was tied at 1 up until the 10th inning, when Boston broke the tie and scored 2 runs. The Mariners answered, scoring 3 runs of their own to pick up their 2nd consecutive win vs. Boston.

Reliever Joely Rodriguez was credited with the loss for Boston, as he let up 2 hits and 2 earned runs with 0 Ks in only 1/3 IP. RHP Logan Gilbert pitched 7 innings for Seattle, picking up 8 Ks while allowing 4 hits and only 1 earned run.

Red Sox at Mariners projected starters

RHP Garrett Whitlock vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Whitlock (5-5, 5.15 ERA) made 10 starts and 12 relief appearances in 2023. He had a 1.33 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 71 2/3 innings.

  • 2023 road splits: 2-4, 5.89 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 45 H, 34 K in 6 starts and 6 relief appearances
  • Career vs. Mariners: 0-0, 8.44 ERA (5 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 12 H, 6 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance

Miller (8-7, 4.32 ERA) made 25 starts in his rookie campaign in 2023. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 131 1/3 innings.

  • 2023 home splits: 5-3, 3.65 ERA (74 IP, 30 ER), 64 H, 66 K in 14 starts
  • Career vs. Boston: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 6-4 home loss Aug. 1, 2023

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Red Sox at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +128 (bet $100 to win $128) | Mariners -152 (bet $152 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-160) | Mariners -1.5 (+132)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)

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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 3, Red Sox 1

Moneyline

BET MARINERS (-152).

Seattle has won each of its last 2 matchups vs. Boston and is 3-1 in its last 4 matchups vs. the Red Sox in Seattle. I also trust Miller, as his stats were very solid last season and I expect him to be even better entering his sophomore year.

Whitlock struggled on the road last year and vs. Seattle in his career, so I expect that to continue here.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I actually like the Mariners to cover here as -1.5 (+132) favorites, but I believe their odds make more sense on the moneyline, as that is the safer bet. Each of the last 2 meetings between these squads has come down to a 1-run finish, and I don’t expect that continue here, but I am also not a fan of doubling down on the run line and moneyline for 1 team.

If you are willing to take the risk of doubling up, then this is not a bad bet.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-104).

The Under has hit 7 of Boston’s last 8 games dating back to last season. For Seattle, the Under has hit in 4 of its last 5 games and is 6-2-2 in its last 10 dating back to last year. The Under has also hit in back-to-back meetings between these squads.

Be aware that the Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 Seattle-Boston matchups.

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (1-0) take on the Seattle Mariners (0-1) Friday in the 2nd game of a 4 game weekend series to start the season. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET.  Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Red Sox got past the Mariners on Opening Day Thursday, winning 6-4 and cashing as +146 road underdogs. 3B Rafael Devers and RF Tyler O’Neill homered for Boston, and SP Brayan Bello earned the win, allowing 2 ERs on 5 hits with 2 K’s in 5 innings.

RF Mitch Haniger and LF Dylan Moore were the only 2 Mariners to drive in runs as both clubbed 2-run HRs. SP Luis Castillo was credited with the loss as he allowed 4 ERs while striking out 5 in 5 innings.

Red Sox at Mariners projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP George Kirby

The 31-year-old Pivetta went 10-9 in 2023, and his boot from the rotation paid dividends as he pitched to a 1.08 ERA over his first 17 appearances out of the bullpen. Among qualified pitchers in spring training, Pivetta had the best Stuff+ at 140.

  • 2023 road splits: 4-3, 3.56 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 29 ER) in 19 games, including 8 starts
  • 2023 vs. Mariners: 1-1, 4.97 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Mariners: 1-1, 4.34 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 9 ER) in 3 starts

Kirby went 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA in his 2nd season as a Mariners starter. The 20th overall pick in 2019, who was named to his 1st All-Star Game last season, sported the lowest BB/9 (0.90) among all qualified MLB a year ago.

  • 2023 home splits: 8-4, 2.70 ERA (93 1/3 IP, 28 ER) in 15 starts
  • 2023 vs. Red Sox: 1-0, 1.54 ERA (11 2/3 IP, 2 ER) in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 4.15 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 10 ER) in 4 starts

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Red Sox at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Mariners -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Red Sox +1.5 (-182) | Mariners -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 3, Mariners 2

Moneyline

BET RED SOX (+120).

Boston has the better bats and Pivetta may have finally figured out how to pitch consistently well. Seattle had the 2nd-highest K% (25.9%) in all of MLB last season, and while the leaders in that category for the Mariners last year (3B Eugenio Suarez, OF Teoscar Hernandez) are gone, so are their power bats at the plate.

Boston features plenty of brute in the heart of their order with Devers and 1B Triston Casas, who had an RBI in the 5th inning Thursday. Plus, the Red Sox had the 7th-most total bases last season (2,360), so even though Kirby should be in control of the plate, Boston should still be able to generate enough offense to pick up the win once again.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Too much juice to take Boston +1.5 (-182) here. Seattle may not have Suarez and Hernadez anymore, but C Cal Raleigh is still behind the plate and CF Julio Rodriguez remains a young phenom.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7 (+100).

FantasyPros rates T-Mobile Park as the 3rd-lowest for run production, and both of these starters are capable of shutting down bats. The Mariners feature a bullpen that finished with the 2nd-lowest ERA in the AL last season, so expect Boston to get their runs in the middle portion of the game.

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox open their seasons with the 1st game of a 4-game set Thursday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; split last season 3-3

The Red Sox finished 5th in an extremely competitive AL East last season with a 78-84 record. They were 39-42 on the road. The loss of RHP Lucas Giolito to elbow surgery, who the team acquired this offseason, will loom large on the season. Most national sites gave the Red Sox a very poor offseason grade, as they did little to improve their roster or depth. Boston was 43-38 against the spread (ATS) on the road last season.

The Mariners barely missed the Wild Card round last season, ending with an 88-74 record. They were 45-36 at home and finished 2 games behind the AL West leaders — the 90-72 Houston Astros. Seattle was 32-49 ATS at home, the 2nd-worst home-covering rate in MLB. The Mariners strength is with their pitching, which should be among the best in the AL West.

Red Sox at Mariners projected starters

RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Luis Castillo

Bello (12-11, 4.24 ERA) made 28 starts in 2023. He closed with a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 157 innings.

  • 2023 road stats: 7-4, 4.66 ERA (75 1/3 IP, 39 ER — 13 HR), 21 BB, 64 K in 13 starts
  • Last start vs. Mariners: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-4 road victory August 1, 2023
  • Career vs. Mariners: 2-0, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 7 BB, 14 K in 2 starts

Castillo (14-9, 3.34 ERA) made an AL-best-tying 33 starts in 2023. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10 K/9 in 197 innings.

  • 2023 home stats: 8-5, 3.09 ERA (105 IP, 36 ER — 15 HR), 30 BB, 130 K in 18 starts
  • 2023 vs. Red Sox: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER (7 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 9-4 road loss May 16
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 5 BB, 16 K in 2 starts

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Red Sox at Mariners odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +142 (bet $100 to win $142) | Mariners -168 (bet $168 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-156) | Mariners -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)

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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Red Sox 4

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mariners (-168) should come out on top but are barely too expensive to take on the moneyline, even with their ace taking the mound. Avoid backing the Red Sox, who did minimal in the offseason, here as well.

Run line/Against the spread

BET RED SOX +1.5 (-156).

The Red Sox, specifically Bello, played well against the Mariners last season. Boston won 6-4 and 12-3 in Bello’s 2 starts against Seattle a season ago and also won in the lone start by Castillo.

While it should cover at a high rate given the typical odds, Boston was 47-38 ATS as an underdog last season. As a favorite, Seattle was just 45-65. Couple those 2 trends together, and expect a close game.

Take RED SOX +1.5 (-156).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-102).

If there’s 1 thing both teams did well last season, it is hit the Over. The Mariners were 80-75-7 O/U with the Red Sox ending the season 81-77-4 O/U.

Five of the 6 games between these teams last season went over this total. With both teams returning many key bats, which suggests similar performances, back OVER 7.5 (-102).

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (57-50) and Seattle Mariners (55-52) play the finale of a 3-game set at T-Mobile Park Wednesday. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 3-2

The Red Sox snapped a 3-game losing skid with a 6-4 victory over the Mariners Tuesday night. Boston is still 13-7 over the last 20 games and sits 1 1/2 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. The Sox are 27-27 on the road and 12-9 against the AL West this year.

The Mariners have struggled to string together wins but are 6-4 and 11-9 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively. They sit 3 1/2 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. This will be the last time these teams match up in the regular season. Seattle is 30-26 at home but just 10-13 against the AL East.

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Red Sox at Mariners projected starters

RHP Kutter Crawford vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

Crawford (5-5, 3.86 ERA) makes his 13th start and 21st appearance. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 77 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K on the road against the San Francisco Giants Friday
  • 1 career start vs. Mariners: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 4 BB, 7 K June 12, 2022

Gilbert (9-5, 3.83 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 124 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 5 K on the road Friday against Arizona Diamondbacks
  • 2 career starts vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 3.46, 1.00 WHIP, 13 K in 13 IP

Red Sox at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Mariners -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-190) | Mariners -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 5, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The M’s turn to one of their young guns in Gilbert on the hill. He has pitched pretty well in his 2 career starts against Boston and has a 2.98 ERA over his last 7 turns. Seattle has scored at least 3 runs in 10 straight games and has done so in every game against Boston this year, too. So it really boils down to Gilbert, whose name was tossed around a lot before the trade deadline, settling down and keeping the Red Sox at bay.

I like the MARINERS (-135), and I like LOGAN GILBERT OVER 17.5 OUTS (-160). He has gone 6 IP in both career starts against Boston and 5 of his last 7 outings overall.

Run line/Against the spread

Each game in this matchup has been decided by more than a run this year. Eight of the last 10 have as well. Seattle has the 2nd-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.59 ERA and Crawford has had trouble with 12 homers allowed in 77 IP this year.

I’ll toss a HALF-UNIT on MARINERS -1.5 (+155).

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Over/Under

The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the teams. All 5 games have gone Over this number this year. This number would have cashed in 4 of Crawford’s last 5 starts and it would have cashed in Gilbert’s 2 career starts against Boston.

I’ll take the OVER 7.5 (-120), but if the number hits 8, I’ll steer clear.

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (56-50) and Seattle Mariners (55-51) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 2-2

The Red Sox dropped the opener 6-2 Monday for their 3rd consecutive loss. Boston has been playing streaky baseball, winners of 5 in a row prior to this skid but dropping 3 in a row before that win streak. The Sox are in 4th place in the AL East, 9 games back of the Baltimore Orioles for the division lead and 2 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

The Mariners have won 2 games in a row and 5 out of their last 6. Seattle is in 4th place in the AL West, 5 games behind the Texas Rangers and 3 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card.

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Red Sox at Mariners projected starters

RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Bryce Miller

Bello (7-6, 3.66 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 96 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-3 home win over Atlanta Braves Wednesday
  • The Red Sox are 3-1 in Bello’s last 4 starts and 11-6 overall when he takes the mound

Miller (7-3, 3.96 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 75 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 8-7 road win over Minnesota Twins Wednesday
  • Allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 6 of last 7 outings

Res Sox at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mariners -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-210) | Mariners -1.5 (+170)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The Mariners have won 5 of their last 6 games and 8 of their last 11. They are 6-3 in their last 9 home games and 3-0 in Miller’s last 3 starts.

The Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 road games.

BET MARINERS (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

As tempting as taking the Mariners -1.5 (+170), 4 of Boston’s last 5 losses have been by only 1 run.

Four of the Mariners’ last 7 wins have been by 1 run.

PASS.

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Over/Under

Seven of the Mariners’ last 11 games have had 7 or fewer total runs.

Three of Boston’s last 4 games have stayed below 8 total runs.

BET UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Boston Red Sox (56-49) and the Seattle Mariners (54-51) open a 3-game series Monday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Red Sox lead 2-1

The Red Sox dropped 2 of 3 games in an interleague set at the San Francisco Giants over the weekend. Boston has won 7 of the past 11 games on the road and is 5-2 in the past 7 games overall. The Red Sox have cashed the Under in 6 straight contests.

The Mariners posted a 4-0 win Sunday at the Arizona Diamondbacks, taking 2 of 3 games over the weekend to wrap up a 6-game road trip with a 4-2. The Under is 3-0 in the past 3 outings, and 5-2 across the past 7 games overall.

Boston posted 2 wins in 3 games in a set at Fenway Park from May 15-17, outscoring Seattle 22-17 as the Over cashed in all 3 outings.

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Red Sox at Mariners projected starters

RHP Nick Pivetta vs. RHP George Kirby

Pivetta (7-5, 4.11 ERA) makes his 9th start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 81 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in a 7-1 home win vs. the Atlanta Braves last Tuesday
  • 2023 road splits: 2-1, 3.60 ERA (35 IP, 14 ER – 4 HR), .205 opponent batting average (OBA) in 3 starts and 8 relief appearances

Kirby (9-8, 3.49 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 0.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 123 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K in a 9-7 road win vs. Minnesota Twins Tuesday
  • 2023 home splits: 6-3, 3.38 ERA (61 1/3 IP, 23 ER – 8 HR), .228 OBA in 10 starts

Red Sox at Mariners odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mariners -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-185) | Mariners -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions

Prediction

Mariners 4, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

The MARINERS (-140) are a strong play at home in the series opener behind the All-Star Kirby.

Kirby has had some issues since the All-Star break, coughing up 11 earned across 16 IP in his past 3 outings. However, this is the same pitcher who allowed just a single run while scattering 8 hits and a walk with 6 K across 6 2/3 IP in a 10-1 win at Fenway Park against the Red Sox back on May 15. Trust Kirby to get right in the series opener.

Run line/Against the spread

The Red Sox +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return if you require a little insurance, and you just cannot pick Boston straight up. That’s too expensive. If you like Boston, which I don’t, just pick it outright.

PASS.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) is the lean ever so slightly.

The total has gone low in each of the past 6 games for the Red Sox while cashing in 4 of the past 5 games on the road.

The Under has hit in 3 in a row for the Diamondbacks while going 5-2 across the past 7 games overall for Arizona.

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (82-65) and Seattle Mariners (78-67) wrap up their three-game series Wednesday afternoon, with first pitch from T-Mobile Park coming at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Red Sox RHP Tanner Houck (0-4, 3.54 ERA) makes his 12th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 53 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in all of his appearances this season but has yet to earn a victory.
  • His longest outing of the season was 5 1/3 innings Aug. 29 against the Cleveland Indians.

Mariners LHP Marco Gonzales (8-5, 4.03 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 118 1/3 IP.

  • Gonzales had a 1.58 ERA across six starts in August and has allowed five runs through 11 innings this month.
  • In his last start, Sept. 10, Gonzales allowed zero earned runs across 6 innings and struck out 3 batters.

Also see: World Series odds

Red Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Mariners +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+122) | Mariners +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mariners 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

Boston is only 4-6 over its last 10 games and split the first two games of the series with Seattle. The Mariners have dropped three of their last four games, so they’re not playing particularly well, either.

With Seattle being at home and Houck unlikely to go very deep into the game, I like the MARINERS (+105) to win outright at plus money.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mariners covered the spread in half of their last 10 games, slightly better than the Red Sox’s 4-6 ATS record in that same span. Gonzales hasn’t been dominant by any means and doesn’t strike out many batters, but Seattle should be able to get to Houck early and push into the Boston bullpen.

Bet the MARINERS +1.5 (-150) with the run of insurance in the event of a loss.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone Over in six of the Red Sox’s last nine games and in each of the Mariners’ last 10. The Over also cashed in 14 of the last 17 games between these two teams.

I like that trend to continue, so bet the OVER 8.5 (-120).

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (81-65) continue their three-game road series against the Seattle Mariners (78-66) Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Red Sox RHP Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.57 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 163 2/3 IP.

  • Eovaldi has gone four straight starts without a decision but the Red Sox have won all four of those games.
  • Took a loss in Boston’s 8-2 defeat April 25 against Seattle with 5 earned runs on 8 hits over 5 innings.

Mariners LHP Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.20 ERA) makes his ninth start for the Mariners and 27th start on the season. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 148 IP.

  • Seattle is 5-3 in his eight starts since being acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • Received a no-decision in his last start with 4 earned runs on 7 hits and 3 walks with 4 strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in Seattle’s 8-5 win Wednesday at the Houston Astros.

Red Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:18 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Mariners +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+115) | Mariners +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Mariners 6, Red Sox 4

Money line (ML)

The Mariners picked up a 5-4 win in the series opener and have a 3-2 lead in the season series. They have won eight of their last 12 games overall and are 42-31 at home this season. Seattle has won five of Anderson’s last six starts.

The Red Sox have lost two games in a row and six of their last eight. They are 37-36 on the road and 44-45 against winning teams.

I LEAN MARINERS (+122).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Red Sox are 74-72 ATS overall this season and 40-33 ATS on the road. However, they are only 9-19 ATS as road favorites.

Seattle’s 81-63 ATS record is the fifth-best in baseball. The Mariners have the seventh-best ATS mark at home with a 38-35 record, and as home underdogs are 32-13 ATS.

I’ll take the MARINERS +1.5 (-140) as extra insurance as I am leaning toward an outright win.

Over/Under (O/U)

Four of the five games between the two teams this season had 9 or more runs. The one that did not reach nine runs had 8 runs.

The Mariners’ last 10 games have had totals of 9 or more runs, while five of the last eight for the Red Sox have done so as well.

Take OVER 8.5 (+100).

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Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Boston Red Sox (81-64) visit the Seattle Mariners (77-66) Monday to start a three-game set at T-Mobile Park with the first pitch scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez takes the mound for the Red Sox. He is 11-8 with a 5.15 ERA (136 1/3 IP, 78 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 27 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 12-7, with 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 3 K Tuesday against the Tampa Bay Rays.
  • Rodriguez beat Seattle April 25, 5-3, with a stat line of 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Mariners on the current roster (59 PA): 2.21 FIP with a .232 batting average, .290 wOBA, .307 expected slugging percentage, 30.5 K% and 85.9 mph exit velocity.

RHP Logan Gilbert is on the hill for the Mariners. He is 5-5 with a 5.10 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 20 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Seattle’s 5-4 loss at the Houston Astros  Tuesday with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2021 home stats: 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.22 WHIP and 7.9 K/BB through 11 starts.

Red Sox at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Red Sox -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Red Sox -1.5 (+133) | Mariners +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mariners 4, Red Sox 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the MARINERS (+102) for 1 unit because I give them a slight edge in the pitching department even though Gilbert is hitting a bit of a rookie wall and there’s “reverse line movement” headed in Seattle’s direction.

Around 70% of the cash wagered is on the Red Sox, according to Pregame.com, but Boston’s money line has gotten cheaper since the betting market opened and it’s always a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Furthermore, Seattle’s bullpen has been far more reliable than Boston’s since the All-Star break. Red Sox relievers’ ERA is more than 1.5 runs higher than the Mariners’ over that span and Boston’s bullpen ranks 20th or worse in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% in the second half.

On top of that, the Mariners are 30-25 against lefty starters and are slightly more productive at the plate against left-handed pitching.

Seattle’s lineup ranks around the same as Boston’s in several advanced hitting metrics over the past two weeks; however, the Mariners have a much better BB/K and the Red Sox have a .332 BABIP while Seattle’s lineup has a .253 BABIP.

Lastly, Seattle is always a live dog at home as the Mariners have the most wins as home underdogs and the second-best winning percentage in that spot this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mariners +1.5 (-165) since they have the third-best cover rate as home underdogs at 31-13 ATS and the Red Sox are just 9-18 ATS as road favorites.

While Seattle’s run line is a little pricier than I’d like it to be, I’d entertain throwing it into a parlay with perhaps the New York Mets’ run line for a plus-money payout.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a tiny wager if at all because I much prefer Seattle’s money line more than the total in this spot.

However, there is a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market with the presumed “sharp” money being on the Under whereas the public money is on the Over despite these teams having a combined 27-18 O/U record when these starters are on the mound. Plus, Seattle’s home ballpark has the fourth-lowest runs scored by park factors and is a notoriously pitcher-friendly park.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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