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The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox open their seasons with the 1st game of a 4-game set Thursday at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Red Sox vs. Mariners odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; split last season 3-3
The Red Sox finished 5th in an extremely competitive AL East last season with a 78-84 record. They were 39-42 on the road. The loss of RHP Lucas Giolito to elbow surgery, who the team acquired this offseason, will loom large on the season. Most national sites gave the Red Sox a very poor offseason grade, as they did little to improve their roster or depth. Boston was 43-38 against the spread (ATS) on the road last season.
The Mariners barely missed the Wild Card round last season, ending with an 88-74 record. They were 45-36 at home and finished 2 games behind the AL West leaders — the 90-72 Houston Astros. Seattle was 32-49 ATS at home, the 2nd-worst home-covering rate in MLB. The Mariners strength is with their pitching, which should be among the best in the AL West.
Red Sox at Mariners projected starters
RHP Brayan Bello vs. RHP Luis Castillo
Bello (12-11, 4.24 ERA) made 28 starts in 2023. He closed with a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 157 innings.
- 2023 road stats: 7-4, 4.66 ERA (75 1/3 IP, 39 ER — 13 HR), 21 BB, 64 K in 13 starts
- Last start vs. Mariners: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-4 road victory August 1, 2023
- Career vs. Mariners: 2-0, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 7 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
Castillo (14-9, 3.34 ERA) made an AL-best-tying 33 starts in 2023. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10 K/9 in 197 innings.
- 2023 home stats: 8-5, 3.09 ERA (105 IP, 36 ER — 15 HR), 30 BB, 130 K in 18 starts
- 2023 vs. Red Sox: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER (7 R), 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 9-4 road loss May 16
- Career vs. Red Sox: 1-1, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 5 BB, 16 K in 2 starts
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Red Sox at Mariners odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +142 (bet $100 to win $142) | Mariners -168 (bet $168 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-156) | Mariners -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -120)
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Red Sox at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Mariners 5, Red Sox 4
Moneyline
PASS.
The Mariners (-168) should come out on top but are barely too expensive to take on the moneyline, even with their ace taking the mound. Avoid backing the Red Sox, who did minimal in the offseason, here as well.
Run line/Against the spread
BET RED SOX +1.5 (-156).
The Red Sox, specifically Bello, played well against the Mariners last season. Boston won 6-4 and 12-3 in Bello’s 2 starts against Seattle a season ago and also won in the lone start by Castillo.
While it should cover at a high rate given the typical odds, Boston was 47-38 ATS as an underdog last season. As a favorite, Seattle was just 45-65. Couple those 2 trends together, and expect a close game.
Take RED SOX +1.5 (-156).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-102).
If there’s 1 thing both teams did well last season, it is hit the Over. The Mariners were 80-75-7 O/U with the Red Sox ending the season 81-77-4 O/U.
Five of the 6 games between these teams last season went over this total. With both teams returning many key bats, which suggests similar performances, back OVER 7.5 (-102).
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