Tag: Red river preview

Advanced stats have Texas over Oklahoma per Parker Fleming

Based on 2023 performance, advanced stats favor Texas over Oklahoma by a touchdown.

Texas is a touchdown favorite over Oklahoma this week. Advanced stats bear out that notion to be true according to metrics shared by advanced stats expert Parker Fleming.

In his advanced stats preview of the game, Fleming’s numbers point to Texas defeating Oklahoma by an average score of roughly 33-26. The score is within reason based on the tug of war many expect to see in the game.

Many of the stats in question feature strength-on-strength battles. In this game, both teams are excellent on offense and defense save for a handful of categories. It’s within reason that both teams could play to a virtual draw because of an even level of performance.

It’s uncertain what to make of both teams. Oklahoma has maximized opportunities against a bad schedule. Texas has failed to maximize opportunities against lesser opponents. Even so, what we don’t know will likely be unearthed in this game.

Texas takes on Oklahoma at 11 a.m. CT on ABC.

Texas RB Jonathon Brooks an X-Factor against Oklahoma

Jonathon Brooks could break the game open with Oklahoma likely preoccupied with the Texas passing attack.

The Oklahoma Sooners will likely be aggressive on Saturday. Chaos is the team’s best mode of defensive attack. They will have to bring pressure to stop the Longhorns in the passing game. Texas can counter with the run.

We are familiar with Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables’ defenses from his days as defensive coordinator for the Sooners. The lasting impression he left on the rivalry involved holding 2009 starting quarterback Colt McCoy and company to 16 points. He did so with aggressive and attacking defense.

Aggression can come with downside. If you do blitz and miss, the offense can attack an off-balanced defense and hit pay dirt.

Former Texas running back Roschon Johnson did that in an otherwise forgettable performance for the Longhorns in the rivalry in 2019. Johnson attacked an overeager Oklahoma defense for a 57-yard run to set up a touchdown. It’s that type of counterattack Texas needs to combat what Venables is about to throw the Longhorns’ way.

Enter Jonathon Brooks who ranks No. 3 in the nation in rushing yards through five games. Brooks has emerged as a dominant force for the team in its last three games, rushing for an average of 162.6 yards in the last three contests. Four of his five touchdown runs came against Kansas and Baylor the last two weeks.

Brooks is emerging as a legitimate problem against which defenses will have to contend. And if he can make the Sooners pay for their aggression, it could give the Longhorns an edge in the game.

Oklahoma proving to be worthy adversary for Texas through three games

You might not know the names, but Oklahoma’s team is pushing for a Top 10 Red River matchup.

The Oklahoma Sooners are looking good through three games. After a strong 3-0 start, the team is setting up for a potential Top 10 matchup over Red River weekend.

The Sooners have proven to be among the more dangerous offenses in the country through three weeks. The team is seventh in total offense with 534 yards per contest. Incidentally, fellow Big 12 squad UCF leads college football with 617.7 yards per game.

Oklahoma has been one of the more efficient offenses in the country in 2023. Last week against Tulsa, Dillon Gabriel completed 28 of 31 passes for 421 yards. On the year, he has a 220.4 quarterback rating and has completed 82.5% of his passes for 905 yards and 11 touchdowns.

Some are suggesting Oklahoma isn’t to be feared given who it has played. I would push back against that notion, though the SMU Mustangs put things on tape that Texas can use to stop the Sooners.

Oklahoma is proving to be a worthy opponent for Texas. This time, the Longhorns won’t be able to take the Sooners lightly.

Former Oklahoma players preview game against Texas

Oklahoma’s defensive front is the Sooners’ only shot of stopping the Texas offense.

Oklahoma might face its biggest challenge on Saturday. At least that’s what two former Sooners players are indicating.

Former Oklahoma greats Teddy Lehman and Gabe Ikard discussed the matchup on their podcast, “The Oklahoma Breakdown.”

You may remember Teddy Lehman from the infamous 2001 Red River Shootout. In the game, Lehman intercepted Chris Simms near the goal line to seal an Oklahoma victory.

Lehman shared an insightful scouting report for the matchup with the Longhorns on Saturday. Among his observations, he noted Texas’ personnel versatility. Additionally he shared Texas seemingly always uses pre-snap motion with a purpose. The former linebacker warned that Oklahoma has to be ready for trickery every time Texas sends motion.

Gabe Ikard called Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders the best players Oklahoma has faced at their respective positions (14:27). He concluded that for Oklahoma to win Saturday it will need to overpower the Texas offensive line.

Saturday will reveal Oklahoma’s plan of attack, but shutting down the Texas offense will not be easy. Even so, it is the Sooners’ best chance of making this game close.

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Brent Venables might think twice about blitzing Texas QB Quinn Ewers

Preparing for Quinn Ewers isn’t as simple as Venables indicated.

Shutting down freshmen quarterbacks is usually simple and straightforward. Throw complex blitzes and coverages at him and rattle his cage. It might not be that simple for Oklahoma on Saturday.

Quinn Ewers’ arm talent is well documented. Albeit, his instincts and ability to keep composure rival his arm strength for his best trait.

Ewers has an innate ability to make plays on the fly. Some call him a gunslinger for that reason. In addition, Ewers is a cold-blooded assassin in the pocket, unfazed by adverse situations he is presented with on Saturdays.

Can you rattle a quarterback who fearlessly stared down the team of the last decade in his second start? I will have to see it first.

The Longhorns can also count on three players for which Oklahoma has no answer. Texas can get the ball to Xavier Worthy, Bijan Robinson and Ja’Tavion Sanders fairly quickly. If Oklahoma blitzes, they better get to the quarterback quickly.

Shutting down Quinn Ewers is not going to be a simple task for Oklahoma. Brent Venables will need to bring his best game plan of the season on Saturday.

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Advanced metrics favor Texas over Oklahoma on Saturday

Could we be overthinking the matchup between Texas and Oklahoma?

Texas and Oklahoma meet in a battle of unranked teams for the first time since 1998. Given the unpredictability of the rivalry, the Longhorns are the betting favorite by a sizable margin.

Vegas is spotting the Longhorns a touchdown in the Big 12’s premier regular season game. Even so, other factors favor Texas heading into the matchup this weekend.

We’ve noticed individual matchups that could favor each team. As a whole it appears Texas is the better team so far through five games, according to football analyst Parker Fleming.

His metrics project Texas to score just under 35 points compared to roughly 26 points for Oklahoma.

What may not surprise you is Texas’ offensive performance. The offense is No. 12 in the nation in success rate and No. 4 in passing success rate. In contrast, Oklahoma is No. 96 in defensive success rate and No. 88 in pass defensive success rate.

The numbers don’t account for the variables that the rivalry provides. Nevertheless, they hint that Texas is the better team through five games.

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Texas Football: 10 game-defining aspects that could shape Red River in 2022

Venables will look to get his first Red River win as a head coach this year.

The Red River game is one of the highlights of the college football season. The rivalry between Texas and Oklahoma is unmatched for many reasons.

The Cotton Bowl venue is unlike any other in college football. Georgia and Florida’s matchup in Jacksonville is the closest atmosphere to the historic Red River Shootout.

This year’s matchup pits two teams who have uncertainty on either side. Texas comes off a 5-7 season last year, while Oklahoma replaces elite offensive mind Lincoln Riley with new head coach Brent Venables.

Venables has proven to be a great play caller, but, as Texas fans saw last year, that does not always immediately translate to success as head coach. Lincoln Riley’s replacement will look to get his first Red River win as a head coach this year.

Here is a look at a few unique aspects that could play a role in this year’s matchup between the two teams.