ESPN SP+ thinks Wisconsin’s Week 2 opponent is better than Western Michigan

ESPN SP+ thinks Wisconsin’s Week 2 opponent is better than Western Michigan

ESPN SP+ thinks Wisconsin is up against a tougher test in Week 2 after its less-than-convincing Week 1 win over Western Michigan.

The metric ranks Wisconsin’s Week 2 opponent South Dakota No. 102 overall in its full college football top 764 ranking. Western Michigan, meanwhile, is down at No. 127.

Related: Wisconsin two-deep depth chart for Week 2 vs. South Dakota includes minor changes

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric is the only one that compiles a ranking for every college football program in the country: FBS, FCS and beyond. That creates the mentioned 764-team ranking. It’s the best point of comparison between FCS and FBS teams, as they are rarely judged against each other aside from the games on the field.

In simpler terms, SP+ thinks South Dakota is a better all-around team than Western Michigan — a Western Michigan team that gave Wisconsin trouble for 3 1/2 quarters in Week 1.

The only takeaway from Connelly’s ranking is that Wisconsin needs a better showing on Saturday afternoon when the Coyotes visit Madison. The Badgers are by far the more talented team, ranked 36 in the latest SP+ update. They badly need a complete, all-around, decisive victory before a Week 3 showdown with top-ranked Alabama (No. 2 in SP+).

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Wisconsin drops in ESPN SP+ after indecisive Week 1 win over Western Michigan

Our mid-week rankings check-in sees an overall trend for the Wisconsin Badgers across most metrics: a slide.

Our mid-week rankings check-in sees an overall trend for the Wisconsin Badgers across most metrics: a slide.

These ranking updates come as a reaction to Week 1 games across the college football world. For Wisconsin, that was an indecisive 28-14 victory over Western Michigan.

Related: Wisconsin two-deep depth chart for Week 2 vs. South Dakota includes minor changes

ESPN SP+ is one of the rating systems that is down on the Badgers after their performance on Friday night. Its Week 2 rankings dropped the team nine spots down to No. 35 overall.

Specifically, the update moved the Badgers’ overall rating from 12.9 down to 8.9, due in large part to a significant downgrade for Phil Longo’s offense.

Here is where Wisconsin currently ranks overall, on offense and on defense, plus how that compares to its preseason slots:

  • Overall: 8.9 (No. 36 overall) — Down from 12.9 (26th)
  • Offense: 23.4 (88th) — Down from 25.1 (77th)
  • Defense: 14.5 (8th) — Down from 12.2 (7th)

Here are SP+’s full rankings after a busy Week 1 across college football.

Of note, here is where each of Wisconsin’s upcoming opponents rank after Week 1:

  • Alabama: No. 2 overall (30.3)
  • USC: No. 21 (14.3)
  • Purdue: No. 54 (3.4)
  • Rutgers: No. 38 (7.0)
  • Northwestern: No. 77 (-2.1)
  • Penn State: No. 6 (25.3)
  • Iowa: No. 17 (15.5)
  • Oregon: No. 8 (22.8)
  • Nebraska: No. 33 (9.6)
  • Minnesota: No. 59 (2.2)

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The Athletic’s QB rankings put Derek Carr at the bottom of Tier 3

The Athletic ranks Saints quarterback Derek Carr at the bottom of Tier 3 among the NFL’s starting quarterbacks, and second-worst in the NFC South:

The New Orleans Saints quarterback situation has been the subject of controversy pretty much ever since Derek Carr signed with the team  last offseason. Some fans swear up and down he is going to return to form and be a top 10-to-15 quarterback that the Saints need, others insist he is the worst player on the team and should be replaced. It’s tough to find many takes that fall in the middle ground.

Ultimately the reality is somewhere between, and that might be the case for Carr in these quarterback rankings from The Athletic’s Mike Sando. They put Carr on the lower end of their rating system. Here is their blurb about the Saints quarterback, where he ranks in Tier 3, and why:

Carr’s No. 20 ranking ties for his worst in 10 Tiers appearances. His 3.00 average is his worst since 2015, when Carr was entering his second season and on the upswing.

“He’s a 3 without (Jon) Gruden,” an offensive coach said. “Gruden could carry the mantel of all the leadership, where Carr could just snuggle up under the umbrella of Gruden. He is exposed now. He is the umbrella. It’s not comfortable. That takes away from his production.”

Carr’s statistics from last season aligned with Mayfield’s. Both led teams that finished 9-8. But voters see Carr as a declining player lacking the intangibles they think are strengths for Mayfield.

“We talk like Baker is some revitalization story,” a head coach said. “No, Baker has taken two teams to division titles. Derek Carr was in that same NFC South division with a better defense.”

The Saints ranked ninth and the Buccaneers were 18th last season in EPA per play on defense, per TruMedia.

“What holds (Carr) back is a lack of toughness in the pocket, and some of his decision making within the scheme,” another exec said.

According to their ranking system, Carr is tied for No. 20 on the list with Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith, which in my eyes is… honestly not the worst comparison of talent. However, Carr ranks second-worst in the NFC South among the starting quarterbacks. He’s behind new addition Kirk Cousins (No. 13) and Baker Mayfield (No. 19), but ahead of Bryce Young (No.28). Out of the 30 starters listed, Cousins was the only one from the NFC South to make it into their “Tier 2” category, with the remainder falling below that mark.

Ultimately, this placement for Carr is not unjustified. Even if he does take a step forward this year, he has not done it yet, and the criticisms provided are generally an accurate assessment. Hopefully better days are on the horizon for Carr, for the sake of the Saints. But if not, who knows what the outcome of the team is for the 2024 season and potentially even beyond.

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Wisconsin football falls in ESPN FPI power rankings after Week 0

The Wisconsin Badgers will enter their Week 1 matchup with Western Michigan ranked No. 40 in ESPN FPI.

The Wisconsin Badgers will enter their Week 1 matchup with Western Michigan ranked No. 40 in ESPN FPI.

That slot is down from their previous spot at No. 39, due to Georgia Tech’s rise up to No. 37 after upsetting Florida State in Week 0.

Related: Big Ten Power Rankings entering Week 1: A clean slate for Wisconsin

FPI does not have an optimistic forecast for Wisconsin’s 2024 season. It projects the Badgers at 5.8 – 6.2, with only a 57.5% chance to reach six or more wins.

That negative outlook is mostly thanks to a schedule that FPI ranks as the 24th-toughest in the nation. That and Wisconsin’s rating is likely anchored by two consecutive years of disappointing 7-6 records.

The Badgers will have plenty of chances to rise up FPI’s ratings. The team plays FPI’s preseason No. 2 (Oregon), No. 5 (Alabama), No. 6 (Penn State), No. 18 (USC), No. 38 (Iowa) and No. 42 (Nebraska) teams.

Week 0 always sees minor movement from the teams that are in action. Expect Wisconsin’s ranking to find its level once the full schedule begins this weekend.

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ESPN thinks Florida football needs a ‘vibe shift’ this season

A vibe shift would really benefit the Orange and Blue.

The college football landscape has seen some significant changes in recent years thanks in large part to NIL and the transfer portal. As a result, the tides turn on teams much more quickly than in the past which has rendered the polls mostly moot.

ESPN staff writer David Hale proposed a solution to this conundrum by splitting all 134 FBS teams into 20 ranked tiers. Among those listed are the Florida Gators, who landed in Tier 8: In need of a vibe shift.

“Florida returns a bunch of good players, but its schedule is so arduous, the Gators could take a big leap forward and still miss a bowl — potentially leaving [autotag]Billy Napier[/autotag] as the first Florida head coach to depart Gainesville without a 10-win season since [autotag]Ron Zook[/autotag],” Hale offers.

“It’s never good when Florida fans are forced to remember the Zook era.”

Other Tier 8 teams

Joining the Orange and Blue in the eighth tier are a pair of SEC peers in the Auburn Tigers and Kentucky Wildcats. Additionally, the Iowa Hawkeyes, Maryland Terrapins, North Carolina Tar Heels, TCU Horned Frogs and Wisconsin Badgers are also among the eight Tier 8 teams.

Florida’s season opener for 2024

The Florida Gators and No. 19 Miami Hurricanes square off on Aug. 31 in Gainesville, Florida to open their schedule for the 2024 season. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ABC Sports.

Follow us @GatorsWire on X, formerly known as Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

Prominent AP writer picks Wisconsin to make 2024 College Football Playoff

What are the chances Wisconsin makes the College Football Playoff in 2024?

Wisconsin fans must accept a recalibration of expectations entering the 2024 season.

The Big Ten West is no more, which means the Badgers’ classic path to nine wins and a birth in the Big Ten title game is gone. Now, those marks must come after outlasting an 18-team conference that is now headlined by Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, USC, Washington, and others.

Related: Big Ten starting quarterback power rankings from ProFootballFocus

In other words, it will require a significantly better Wisconsin team to finish 10-2 and reach the Big Ten title game. That is where expectations must change, as Luke Fickell leading the program to perennial 8-4 records would be impressive given the circumstances.

But although Big Ten titles just became arguably the toughest thing in the sport to win next to the national title, this new format does give programs like Wisconsin more opportunity.

That comes with the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. The new format includes the five highest-ranked conference champions, then seven at-large teams. There is a real argument to be made that the Badgers finishing 9-3 with a big win over Alabama or Oregon could be enough to earn them a spot.

Think that’s unrealistic? Well, prominent Associated Press college football writer Ralph Russo just picked the Badgers to make the inaugural 12-team CFP field. Here is his seed breakdown:

Only one Wisconsin Badger makes ESPN’s ranking of college football’s top 100 players for 2024

Should more Badgers make the list?

The 2024 Wisconsin Badgers could be much improved on both sides of the football after a disappointing 2023 season. The team, as a whole, might be strides better than last year’s group that went 7-6 against a light schedule.

But if that is the case, ESPN thinks it will happen without any of college football’s premier players. Oonly one Wisconsin Badger made its list of the top 100 players in the sport entering 2024: cornerback Ricardo Hallman.

Related: Wisconsin Badgers game-by-game picks entering 2024 from ESPN FPI matchup predictor

Hallman is No. 62 in the top 100. He is on the list thanks to a 34-tackle, 3 tackle-for-loss, 7-interception, 5-pass-deflection 2023 campaign. His rise to No. 62 overall comes after entering the 2023 season unranked entirely.

Here’s what the ESPN staff wrote about the Wisconsin star cornerback.

Hallman’s journey has been one to watch. After being a redshirt freshman who barely got any snaps during his first two seasons, Hallman made a leap last year. The Miami native secured a starting spot in the Badgers’ secondary and tallied a nation-leading seven interceptions on his way to All-America status. Going into his junior season, Hallman somehow remains one of the more underrated defenders — and players — in college football and should be primed for another big year.

The path that ESPN mentions includes joining the Badgers as a three-star recruit in the class of 2021. He was the program’s third-lowest-rated commit in the class (the lowest rated was Jake Chaney, the Badgers starting inside linebacker entering 2024). The class broke records, led by five-star offensive tackle Nolan Rucci, four-star OT Riley Mahlman and four-star safety Hunter Wohler. Hallman has emerged as arguably its best player.

That path also includes playing in three games as a true freshman in 2021, nine (eight starts) as a redshirt freshman in 2022, then exploding onto the scene in 2023. Now entering 2024, he’s arguably one of the best cornerbacks in the sport. In ESPN’s eyes, at least, one of the most underrated.

Other Badgers who could have made the list include safety Hunter Wohler (120 tackles in 2023) and wide receiver Will Pauling (837 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns in 2023).

Either way, Wisconsin’s success in 2024 will come from a deep group of productive players, rather than from just one or two known stars.

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College football writers think more of Nebraska than of Wisconsin entering 2024 season

Thoughts on this comparison?

The 2024 preseason AP Poll Top 25 was released on Monday. The Wisconsin Badgers are on the outside looking in, down in the receiving votes category.

It will be the first time Wisconsin enters the season unranked since 2016 and the third time since 2007.

Related: Ranking all 18 Big Ten football teams in championship tiers entering 2024 season

Five of the Badgers’ 2024 opponents are ranked entering the year. Oregon is at No. 3 overall, Alabama is No. 5, Penn State is No. 8, USC is No. 23 and Iowa is No. 25.

One other opponent is in the receiving votes category: the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Nebraska’s vote total of 16 edges Wisconsin’s (15 votes) by one. Those votes come from ballots that had the teams ranked, with 25 points awarded for a first-place vote, 24 for a second-place vote and so on.

Digging deeper, the AP voters collectively think more of Nebraska entering 2024 than they do Wisconsin. That is a strong statement after the Cornhuskers’ 5-7 debut season under Matt Rhule in 2023.

Whether justified or not, the slotting creates an interesting comparison between the two programs that should be interesting to watch as the season unfolds.

Both are in the midst of transition under new leadership — Nebraska with Rhule and Wisconsin with Luke Fickell. Nebraska has not defeated Wisconsin since 2012, including the Badgers’ 24-17 overtime win in 2023. But the context surrounding each program has changed significantly since Rhule and Fickell were hired entering the 2023 season.

More than anything, Rhule appears to have Nebraska ready to return to prominence after years of high expectations and disappointing results. Five-star true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola will have a lot to say about whether that happens in 2024.

Any pair of coaches hired during the same offseason will inevitably be compared. That is especially the case with two programs that play an annual rivalry game, and are each battling for the same position in the conference’s standing.

The AP voters are projecting the power to begin to shift during the 2024 season.

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Wisconsin unranked in preseason AP Poll for first time since 2016

Wisconsin unranked in 2024 preseason AP Poll

The Wisconsin Badgers are unranked entering the 2024 college football season.

The team missed the top 25 of the 2024 preseason AP Poll. It is instead listed down in the ‘receiving votes’ category.

Related: Full previews for every Wisconsin football position group entering 2024 season

The Badgers’ 15 total votes are enough to rank No. 36 in the nation. For reference, the Iowa Hawkeyes are ranked No. 25 in the poll with 140 votes. 25 points are awarded for every first-place vote in the writers’ rankings, 24 for every second-place vote and so on until one point is awarded for a 25th-place vote.

The AP Poll results follow the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll in having the Badgers unranked. This is after the program’s recent string of 7-6 seasons.

It will be Wisconsin’s first time entering the season unranked since 2016, and only the third time overall since 2007. The program’s consistency was its calling card for during Bret Bielema and Paul Chryst eras. New head coach Luke Fickell is now tasked with returning the program to that standard.

Notable Big Ten teams in the top 25 include USC at No. 23, Michigan at No. 9, Penn State at No. 8, Oregon at No. 3 and Ohio State at No. 2. The Alabama Crimson Tide, Wisconsin’ Week 3 opponent, also enters at No. 5.

Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion. 

Where Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium ranks on ESPN’s list of the top 25 college football stadiums

Is Camp Randall Stadium overrated, underrated, or properly rated?

Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium made ESPN’s recent list of the top 25 venues in college football.

The rankings come from a collection of thoughts and votes from 14 of ESPN’s most prominent college football writers. Each writer submitted their top 20 stadiums in order, with each venue getting 20 points for a first-place vote, 19 for second place, 18 for third place and so on.

Related: Full recap of power rankings for every Big Ten football position group entering 2024 season

Unsurprisingly, the list of the 25 top venues includes nine stadiums from the new Big Ten Conference. We’ve ranked the expanded conference’s 18 home venues, which becomes a tall task given the group’s high number of top-end stadiums.

Our ranking differs from ESPN’s, especially with the placement of Michigan Stadium. We have it down at No. 10 in the Big Ten, while ESPN has it up at No. 3 in the entire sport.

Either way, every ranking is high on Wisconsin’s Camp Randall Stadium. Here is where the Badgers’ historic home venue ranks among the rest of the sport’s top stadiums: