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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Texas Rangers (59-69) and the Cleveland Guardians (73-54) open a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 2-1

The defending world champ Rangers took 2 of 3 games from the Pittsburgh Pirates Monday through Wednesday, and now look for a 2nd straight series win. While Texas is 3-1 in the past 4 games, it is just 5-10 in the previous 15 contests.

The Rangers are a dismal 3-9 in the past 12 road contests, and Texas hasn’t won a road series since topping the rival Houston Astros in 2 of 3 games from July 12-14.

The total has gone low for Texas in the past 3 games, while going 6-1 across the past 7 outings.

For the Guardians, they managed just a single hit in a 6-0 setback against the New York Yankees on Thursday. Cleveland has managed just a single run, while getting outscored 14-1 in the past 2 outings after winning the series opener 9-5.

The Under is 3-2 in the past 5 outings for the Guardians, while going 8-5-1 in the past 14 contests.

Rangers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Eovaldi (8-7, 3.76 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 127 IP.

Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 6 K in 5-2 home setback vs. Minnesota Twins last Saturday
2024 road splits: 2-4, 4.87 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.49 WHIP, .286 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 16 BB, 40 K in 8 starts
Career vs. Guardians: 3-2, 3.83 ERA (42 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 9 appearances (6 starts)

Bibee (10-5, 3.33 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 132 1/3 IP.

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 3 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 road setback vs. Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday
2024 home splits: 4-2, 3.99 ERA (58 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.13 WHIP, .226 OBA, 6 HR, 16 BB, 66 K in 11 starts
Career vs. Guardians: 0-0, 1.62 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 3 starts

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Rangers at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:13 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rangers +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Guardians -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-200) | Guardians -1.5 (+164)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Rangers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Rangers 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-134) are a solid play as moderate favorites at home in the series opener.

The Rangers (+114) have struggled recently, picking up just 3 victories in the past 12 road contests. Texas won the World Series last season, but this has been a miserable campaign. Cleveland is a lot like Texas last season, coming out of nowhere to contend.

Run line/Against the spread

The Rangers +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return if you would like a little insurance, and you just cannot play them straight up.

The Guardians -1.5 (+164) can’t be trusted, either, as they’ve played just a single run in the past 2 games, while scoring 1 or no runs in 4 of the past 5 outings.

PASS.

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Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-110) is a solid play in the series opener, but play a half-unit play at most.

Again, the Guardians have scored 1 or no runs in 4 of the past 5 outings, and the Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games at home for Cleveland.

For the Rangers, the Under has cashed in 3 in a row, and 6 of the past 7 contests.

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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Texas Rangers (82-66) and the Cleveland Guardians (71-78) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 3-2

The Rangers dropped a 2nd straight game in Cleveland on Saturday, falling 2-1, and Texas is now a half-game back of the Houston Astros for the top spot in the American League West, while staying just a game ahead of the 3rd-place Seattle Mariners.

The Rangers are also now just 37-36 on the road, and Texas is in danger of getting swept in a series for the 1st time since losing 3 in a row against those aforementioned Astros back on July 31-Aug. 2.

Sunday was supposed to be RHP Max Scherzer‘s turn in the rotation, but he is on the 10-day injured list due to a shoulder injury which is expected to knock him out for the season.

LHP Andrew Heaney was previously in the rotation, but he was tuned up for 6 runs and 6 hits in 2 IP of relief Friday, throwing 55 pitches, so he is unlikely to start. Another former rotation member, LHP Martin Perez, made 23 pitches in a relief appearance Saturday, and he is unlikely to go Sunday in a starting capacity, either.

The Guardians are showing fight down the stretch, but are still 7 games behind the 1st-place Minnesota Twins in the AL Central, and a division title is realistically Cleveland’s only avenue to a postseason berth. As such, analytics show the Guardians to have just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs.

Rangers at Guardians projected starters

TBD vs. RHP Gavin Williams

The Rangers were still undecided on a starter for Sunday at the time of publishing.

Williams (2-5, 3.43 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 76 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road loss in 10 innings vs. the San Francisco Giants Monday
2023 home splits: 2-3, 4.02 ERA (47 IP, 21 ER), 6 HR, .240 opponent batting average (OBA) in 9 starts
2023 vs. Texas: Loss, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 2-0 road loss July 15

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Rangers at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rangers -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Guardians -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers -1.5 (+152) | Guardians +1.5 (-184)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Rangers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Rangers 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-108) are a decent play as Cleveland looks to complete the 3-game series sweep in front of the home fans.

While Cleveland’s postseason hopes are on life support, it continues to fight on, making life miserable for Texas in the process. The home side has won all 5 meetings in 2023, so keep rolling with that trend.

Run line/Against the spread

The GUARDIANS ALT RUN LINE -1.5 (+158) is worth playing as the Rangers have some upheaval in the rotation with the injury to Scherzer. It’s not an optimal situation at this time of the year, especially in a 3-way fight for the division title. Texas can’t get out of Cleveland soon enough.

Over/Under

The UNDER 7.5 (+100) is the lean, but go lightly. Williams has been shaky overall after starting out decent initially. We saw a very low-scoring game on Saturday, and we’re likely to see a the runs at a premium again in this daytime affair.

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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians (69-78) and the Texas Rangers (82-64) open a 3-game set at Progressive Field Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Rangers lead 3-0

The Guardians lost 2 of 3 games at the San Francisco Giants from Monday to Wednesday, losing the finale 6-5 as +136 underdogs. Cleveland is 3-7 over its last 10 games, 36-36 at home this season and 8 games back of the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central.

The Rangers have won 6 straight games including a 4-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays to kick off the week. Texas won 9-2 Thursday as a +139 underdog and is 6-4 over its last 10 games and 37-34 on the road this season. The Rangers are half a game back of the Houston Astros in the AL West and hold the 2nd AL Wild Card.

Rangers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Jon Gray vs. RHP Lucas Giolito

Gray (8-7, 3.96 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 145 1/3 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 9-4 home win vs. Oakland Athletics Sunday
2023 road stats: 5-3, 3.41 ERA in 68 2/3 IP in 12 starts

Giolito (7-13, 4.89 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 163 2/3 IP for the Guardians, Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox.

Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 6-2 road loss vs. Angels Saturday
2023 home stats: 4-4, 3.48 ERA in 77 2/3 IP in 13 starts

Rangers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Rangers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Guardians +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers -1.5 (+125) | Guardians +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Rangers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 6, Guardians 4

Moneyline

BET RANGERS (-135).

Texas is 19-16 as a road favorite this season and is the 4th-best team following a win (49-32). It should also have the advantage among the two starting pitchers as Gray has been better away from home.

Cleveland sits 8 games behind the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central while the Rangers are in a 3-way battle for the top spot in the AL West. This game should be more important to Texas. Back RANGERS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rangers spread could have value, but ultimately the safer play on the moneyline is preferred.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120).

The Rangers are as hot as it gets right now, cashing the Over in 5 straight games and 11 of their last 12. Texas has scored 6 or more in all 5 of those games and has plated 9 runs or more in 4 of the 5 games. The Rangers are 75-61-10 O/U on the season and 3 of Gray’s last 4 turns have resulted in Overs.

The Guardians have gone Over in 3 of their last 6 games and have scored at least 3 runs in 3 straight games.

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Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Texas Rangers (26-29) meet the Cleveland Guardians (25-26) Wednesday at Progressive Field in the finale of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rangers vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.

After Monday’s scheduled series opener was rained out, these teams split a doubleheader Tuesday with Cleveland winning the 1st game 6-3 and Texas bouncing back with a 6-3 win in the nightcap. Tuesday’s doubleheader was the 1st time the Rangers-Guardians played this year. They have 3 games in Texas in late September.

Rangers at Guardians projected starters

RHP Dane Dunning vs. RHP Shane Bieber

Dunning is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 61 1/2 IP over 11 starts.

Last start: No-decision in Friday’s 4-3 home loss vs. the Seattle Mariners with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
2021 vs. the Guardians: One start, a 6-0 loss at home Oct. 3 with 3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K.

Bieber is 3-3 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 60 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

Last start: Won 6-3 Friday at the Baltimore Orioles with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 11 K.
2022 home splits: 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 18 H, 5 BB and 17 K in 3 starts.

Rangers at Guardians odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:28 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Rangers +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Guardians -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-160) | Guardians -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Rangers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 4, Guardians 3

Money line

BET 1 unit on the RANGERS (+133).

This is mispriced because Bieber is the 2020 American League Cy Young winner with better basic pitching stats this year than Dunning. But, Bieber and Dunning’s pitching peripherals are fairly even and Dunning’s sinker is one of the more effective pitches in baseball.

Texas’s lineup has been much hotter recently. The Rangers are better than the Guardians at the plate in WAR (3.8-2.0), wRC+ (127-94), wOBA (.341-.296) and barrel rate (8.4-3.2%) over the past two weeks, according to FanGraphs. Also, Dunning has a better barrel rate than Bieber (6.1-4.9%), per Statcast.

Finally, there’s a line freeze in the betting market since more than 80% of the bets are on the Guardians (according to Tipico Sportsbook) but the line hasn’t budged off the opener. This suggests the House is trying to bait bettors into taking more pro-Cleveland action.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rangers +1.5 (-160) are 14-7 RL as road underdogs but their RL is too expensive considering Bieber has some of the best stuff in the MLB and the Guardians -1.5 (+130) are 12-10 RL as favorites.

PASS.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-125).

The price suggests the Under the sharper than the Over 7.5 (+100), the Rangers are 6-13-2 O/U as road underdogs and 3-7 O/U in Dunning’s 10 starts and the Guardians are 4-6-1 O/U as home favorites.

Also, the weather forecast is predicting pitcher-friendly conditions such as a cool 67° night with 11 mph winds blowing in from right-center field.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125) because Texas’s ML is my favorite wager in this game and this is a sharp total.

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