The Texas Rangers (26-29) meet the Cleveland Guardians (25-26) Wednesday at Progressive Field in the finale of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rangers vs. Guardians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
After Monday’s scheduled series opener was rained out, these teams split a doubleheader Tuesday with Cleveland winning the 1st game 6-3 and Texas bouncing back with a 6-3 win in the nightcap. Tuesday’s doubleheader was the 1st time the Rangers-Guardians played this year. They have 3 games in Texas in late September.
Rangers at Guardians projected starters
RHP Dane Dunning vs. RHP Shane Bieber
Dunning is 1-3 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 61 1/2 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Friday’s 4-3 home loss vs. the Seattle Mariners with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
- 2021 vs. the Guardians: One start, a 6-0 loss at home Oct. 3 with 3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
Bieber is 3-3 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 60 2/3 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: Won 6-3 Friday at the Baltimore Orioles with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 11 K.
- 2022 home splits: 1-2 with a 5.51 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 18 H, 5 BB and 17 K in 3 starts.
Rangers at Guardians odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:28 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Rangers +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Guardians -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers +1.5 (-160) | Guardians -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Rangers at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 4, Guardians 3
Money line
BET 1 unit on the RANGERS (+133).
This is mispriced because Bieber is the 2020 American League Cy Young winner with better basic pitching stats this year than Dunning. But, Bieber and Dunning’s pitching peripherals are fairly even and Dunning’s sinker is one of the more effective pitches in baseball.
Texas’s lineup has been much hotter recently. The Rangers are better than the Guardians at the plate in WAR (3.8-2.0), wRC+ (127-94), wOBA (.341-.296) and barrel rate (8.4-3.2%) over the past two weeks, according to FanGraphs. Also, Dunning has a better barrel rate than Bieber (6.1-4.9%), per Statcast.
Finally, there’s a line freeze in the betting market since more than 80% of the bets are on the Guardians (according to Tipico Sportsbook) but the line hasn’t budged off the opener. This suggests the House is trying to bait bettors into taking more pro-Cleveland action.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Rangers +1.5 (-160) are 14-7 RL as road underdogs but their RL is too expensive considering Bieber has some of the best stuff in the MLB and the Guardians -1.5 (+130) are 12-10 RL as favorites.
PASS.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-125).
The price suggests the Under the sharper than the Over 7.5 (+100), the Rangers are 6-13-2 O/U as road underdogs and 3-7 O/U in Dunning’s 10 starts and the Guardians are 4-6-1 O/U as home favorites.
Also, the weather forecast is predicting pitcher-friendly conditions such as a cool 67° night with 11 mph winds blowing in from right-center field.
It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-125) because Texas’s ML is my favorite wager in this game and this is a sharp total.
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