A new OC but returning personnel puts Mayfield in an intriguing scenario.
Baker Mayfield entered last season at the crossroads of his career. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were his fourth team in three seasons. He was unceremoniously exiled from Cleveland four years after being the first overall pick in the 2018 draft and had stops with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams in 2022. When he showed up in Tampa Bay to replace Tom Brady it had all the looks of a placeholder quarterback on a one-year, prove-it deal with no guarantees.
What followed was a career year for Mayfield. He set personal highs for attempts (566), completions (364), completion percentage (64.3), passing yards (4,044), and touchdowns (28). He led the Buccaneers to a 5-1 record in their final six games to win the NFC South, and Mayfield became a made man in Tampa. That performance set him up to sign a three-year, $100 million deal that all but assures that he will be the quarterback for the next two years and more than likely all three.
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Looking at his overall numbers last season, Mayfield gave fantasy managers much more than expected, finishing seventh in passing touchdowns and ninth in passing yards – overperforming his draft status (in leagues where he was drafted at all). His numbers really shouldn’t have come as a surprise, because he was surrounded by an extremely talented supporting cast.
Mike Evans shattered the preexisting record for consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career. His first year with Mayfield was his 10th straight with more than 1,000 yards, which produced his most receptions and receiving yards since 2018 — exceeding his numbers during Brady’s pass-happy run. Chris Godwin added 83 receptions for 1,024 yards, giving the Buccaneers a 1-2 punch at wide receiver that compares favorably to any tandem in the league for their sustained effectiveness.
But it doesn’t end there. Running back Rachaad White caught 64 passes (two or more receptions every game). Tight end Cade Otton caught 47 passes and scored four touchdowns, and Trey Palmer had 39 grabs (at least one in every game). Mayfield spread the ball around, appeasing both the star players and the supporting cast by making sure they all saw their share of opportunities.
Fantasy football outlook
Most ADP rankings have Mayfield ranked in the low 20s, among quarterbacks, which would mean he likely isn’t drafted in 10-team leagues but is a solid QB2 in standard formats. His weekly numbers smack in the face of that ranking. Mayfield had six games with 275 or more passing yards (five in eight home games) and 10 games with two or more touchdown passes (seven in nine road games). He didn’t have a glaring weakness at home or on the road.
Mayfield will be available deep into fantasy drafts and may again go undrafted. For someone who invested in a star QB early or plays the matchups, Mayfield looks like an ideal QB2. He is surrounded by too much talent – both in terms of high-end players and quality depth – to ignore. He has a new offensive coordinator (Liam Coen), but they worked together in his time with the Rams, giving Mayfield a leg up on the transition.
It may take an injury or byes for Mayfield to get in weekly lineups, but he has the supporting cast to once again surpass fantasy expectations.
