Betting odds for each match in the Round of 16, including USA vs. Netherlands.
With the group stage of the 2022 World Cup all wrapped up following the final four matches Friday, it’s time to take a look at where the betting odds stand as the tournament advances to a single-elimination format for the Round of 16.
The knockout stages begins Saturday with none other than the United States, which gets set to match up against Netherlands. While the U.S. is an underdog, it isn’t as big a dog as other teams across the eight games being played through Tuesday.
Here’s a look at all of those matchups and updated title odds entering the Round of 16.
Tuesday’s World Cup meeting between the USA and Iran is a high stakes game for both teams, as only the winner can advance from group-stage play to the knockout round.
Odds have favored the U.S. to come out on top from the beginning, and they’re even shorter now at -107. But Iran already has one upset under its belt, defeating Wales in its last match to create the win-or-go-home stakes of this game.
Though Iran has outscored USA 4-1 this tournament, three of those goals came in stoppage time, including two in their stunning win over Wales. The other two goals were footnotes in a 6-2 blowout at the hands of England.
Those six goals allowed came on seven shots on goal, a remarkably high percentage. The U.S., though, held England scoreless with just three shots on goal and nearly did the same to Wales before a late penalty on Gareth Bale. That defense is why I’m picking the Americans to prevail.
The offense is due for better luck after blowing some good opportunities against England. But I’m expecting Iran to have a harder time finding the back of the net.
The U.S. needs to beat Iran on Tuesday to advance.
The mission is simple for the U.S. in its next and final match of the 2022 World Cup group stage on Tuesday, beat Iran and you move on to the knockout round.
Thanks to Iran’s stunning win over Wales on Friday morning, the USMNT’s match against England later in the day was mostly meaningless in terms of how it impacted group standings — especially after it ended in a tie.
So, as they still trail Iran by a point in the group standings, the U.S. needs a win to avoid elimination. Early odds at BetMGM favor the Americans to get it done at +110.
Odds that Iran wins are +270 and odds on a draw or +245. Either result would send the USMNT home earlier than expected.
Even as they trail in the standings, their -135 odds to qualify for the knockout round are still slightly better than Iran’s -110.
The United States Men’s National Team isn’t expected to beat England in their World Cup meeting Friday. But if it does win, bettors are making sure they’re in position to cash in on the incredibly long odds.
Since opening at +500, USA’s odds to win the match have grown as long as +600 at BetMGM. Yet, 63% of bets on the result and 49% of the money favors the U.S.
American bettors are obviously biased, but the potential payout at those odds certainly help the slant. England’s much shorter odds have only received 20% of bets and 39% of the money. Bets on a tie account for 17%, and 12% of the money.
A spokesperson at BetMGM said USA-England was the most heavily bet match at the World Cup so far, according to ESPN’s David Purdum. The public doesn’t favor the U.S. everywhere, though. At Caesars Sportsbook, 56% of the money was on England.
England has +650 odds to win the entire tournament, tied with Spain and France for second-shortest behind Brazil (+210). Their odds to win Group B are -1000, followed by USA (+1000), Iran (+3200) then Wales (+10000).
Saudi Arabia’s win over Argentina early Tuesday morning isn’t just one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history, it might actually be the biggest.
That’s according to several sportsbooks, many of whom had Saudi Arabia’s odds to win the match at 18-1 or longer.
To demonstrate just how big of an upset it was, Argentina entered the World Cup on a 36-match unbeaten streak, one short of tying the longest streak in men’s international soccer history. At BetMGM, they had the second-shortest odds to win the World Cup at +550. Even after the loss, their odds are tied for fourth-shortest at +850.
Saudi Arabia’s odds were at the very bottom of the 32-team field and remain in the bottom five even after the massive upset. Their odds to beat Argentina were 18-1 at BetMGM.
Saudi Arabia were +1800 on the moneyline @BetMGM today vs. Argentina…
But I’m no soccer historian. If those numbers aren’t enough to convince you this was the biggest upset in World Cup history, others made the argument too.
This should help make the offside penalty a little clearer.
Offsides is one of the trickier penalties to identify in soccer because of how quickly it can happen and how difficult it can be to track positioning relative to when a ball is touched.
But once you know what you’re looking for, it’s a lot easier to spot.
Luckily, fans watching the World Cup won’t have to worry about learning differences to the rule, as it remains unchanged from the latest International Football Association Board (IFAB) “Laws of the Game,” the standardized set of rules soccer leagues and competitions abide by.
For those unaware of how the rule works, it’s first important to know that being in an offside position in itself is not a penalty.
As defined in the 2022-23 Laws of the Game, an offside position is simply when any part of a player’s “head, body or feet is in the opponent’s half” of the field and “nearer to the opponent’s goal line than both the ball and the second-last opponent” (hands and arms up to the armpit aren’t considered for the purpose of offside).
Note:Being level with the second-to-last opponent or the last two opponents isn’t offside.
So when does being offside become a penalty?
It’s when a player deemed offside interferes in a play by playing or touching a ball passed or touched by a teammate. Or when the offside player interferes with an opponent by either:
preventing an opponent from playing a ball by clearly obstructing their line of vision
challenging an opponent for the ball
clearly attempting to play a nearby ball when the action impacts an opponent
making an obvious action that clearly impacts the ability of an opponent to play the ball
It’s also a penalty if an offside player gains an advantage by playing a ball or interfering with an opponent after the ball rebounds or deflects off the goalpost, crossbar, an official or opponent, including if that opponent deliberately saves a ball from going towards the goal.
However, once an opponent makes a deliberate play on the ball that isn’t a save, an offside player is no longer deemed to have an advantage.
Lastly, an offside penalty can’t occur on a goal kick, a throw-in or a corner kick.
The World Cup Qatar 2022 regulation guide allows for video assistance referees (VARs) to be used for match-changing decisions or incidents, so fans should expect to see these replay officials interject when most necessary.
In order to know how and when a VAR steps in, it’s necessary to look at The International Football Association Board (IFAB) “Laws of the Game,” which establishes the protocols used by the World Cup and other soccer competitions.
According to the laws, the VAR is a match official with independent access to match footage who can assist the match referee in the event of a clear and obvious error or serious missed incident in relation to:
goal/no goals decisions
penalty kick/no penalty kick
direct red cards (not second yellow card/caution)
instances of mistaken identity (a referee cautions or sends off the wrong player)
VAR reviews can only be initiated by a game referee, though the VAR and other match officials can recommend a review to the referee. And a VAR can’t be used before the referee makes a call on the field first.
Everything in regards to the play being reviewed by a VAR will be checked, eliminating the need for coaches or players to request a review. And there is no time limit on a VAR review.
Picks and predictions for Mexico’s Group C opener against Poland.
Mexico opens up its World Cup action on Tuesday in Group C action against Poland.
It’s an incredibly balanced (and important) matchup when you consider the teams have the exact same +550 odds to win their group — tied behind Argentina’s -280 — and the same odds to win the entire tournament at +15000.
Mexico and Poland’s odds to win the match are nearly identical too, with Poland given the slightest of edges at +180 odds to Mexico’s +185. Odds that the match ends in a draw are +205. This is a toss-up in the truest sense of the term.
The only thing that seems certain is that these teams combine for fewer than 2.5 goals.
This will be the first World Cup meeting between these teams since 1978 when Poland beat Mexico 3-1 in the Group Stage. They’ve met three times since then, with the first two ending in 1-1 draws and Mexico winning the last 1-0 in 2017.
It its last three friendlies, Mexico has allowed a total of five goals, all to teams that didn’t qualify for the World Cup. That includes a 2-1 loss to Sweden on Wednesday.
Poland, on the other hand, scored just twice in its last three games, including a 1-0 win over Chile on Wednesday — a game Robert Lewandowski missed. The other goal was in September against Wales, which holds the same World Cup title odds as Poland and Mexico.
With both results ending in wins for Poland, I think they’ll come in with a little more confidence and find a way to beat Mexico’s defense while keeping the score down as they’ve been doing.
If you’re going to bet on the World Cup, don’t be like so many other uninformed bettors eager to give their money away on bets that the U.S. men’s national team is going to win the whole thing.
Odds that the USMNT is the last team standing are 150-1 for a reason. There are 15 teams in the field with better odds, including U.S. group-mate England.
Do a little research, find out which teams have a track record of success in this thing, and then throw your money on it. When you’re ready, these are the odds at BetMGM for each team in the field.
Lines will update live throughout the tournament:
Brazil (+320) is the favorite, followed by Argentina (+550), France (+700) and Spain and England (+800).
The U.S. and Mexico are tied at +15000 along with Wales, Poland and Ecuador.
Of course, it could be a lot worse for the U.S. There are 12 teams with worse odds, including Canada at +25000.
In all likelihood, a good percentage of those bettors will be first-time soccer bettors. So here’s a quick guide on what to look for when diving into the lines.
Unlike the big four in American sports — NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL — with standard betting lines that offers a spread and moneyline odds for both teams and a point total over/under, a standard soccer line is just three numbers:
Winning odds for the home team, odds on a tie, and odds for the away team.
From Tipico Sportsbook
Of course, there are no home teams at the World Cup (besides the host Qatar). But even if the example above was a typical soccer match, Qatar would be the home team because, unlike most major American sports, the home team is listed first in soccer.
Ecuador is considered the favorite in the example because it has shorter odds. A $10 bet at +140 odds would win $14. That same $10 on Qatar’s +220 odds would win $22.
Bets aren’t limited to just a winner. While the spread and total aren’t listed on the standard line, going into the “all wagers” section (or whatever your sportsbook’s equivalent is) gives those lines and so many more options. They’re pretty straightforward from there.
Lastly, when it comes to betting on the World Cup, “futures” are important to know too. Sportsbooks offer futures odds on a number of items, including who you think will win the entire tournament and who you think will be the top goalscorer.
