Tag: proposal

What could a blockbuster Saints-Chiefs trade for Terron Armstead look like?

The New Orleans Saints need cheap talent, and the Kansas City Chiefs need a left tackle. What would a trade for Terron Armstead look like?

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So here’s a fun exercise. The Kansas City Chiefs felt this year’s painful salary cap crunch and released both of their starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, putting them in a real bind. It makes sense for them to turn over every stone in search of better protection after Patrick Mahomes was overwhelmed by the Buccaneers pass rush in Super Bowl LV, which brings them to the New Orleans Saints.

Well, it brings Chiefs Wire’s Charles Goldman to my inbox. Charles and I teamed up for mock trade talks to see what it would take to make both sides happy, and whether we could reach a deal at all. Here’s how it played out:

Charles Goldman: Would the Saints ever trade Terron Armstead in a cap-clearing move? I know he’d free about $11.6 million in cap space if he were traded and only has one year left on his deal?

John Sigler: I don’t think that has legs. He’s a cornerstone player for New Orleans and a big selling point to any free agent quarterbacks they’re looking at. They’re only about $12 to $15 million over the salary cap right now, and he could sign an extension soon to reduce his $16 million cap figure and remain with the team.

If he were moved, it would take a return comparable to the Laremy Tunsil trade, which brought in multiple draft picks and a couple of role players. It’s not like the Trent Williams situation where the player was holding out and demanding a trade, though Armstead’s age and injury history better compare to Williams than Tunsil.

CG: Do you think they would take a player on their rookie deal in return too? Maybe someone like WR Mecole Hardman? Could be a good replacement for WR Emmanuel Sanders.

JS: Yeah I could see it. Their projected No. 2 wide receiver, Tre’Quan Smith, is entering a contract year and never been a consistent receiving threat. Hardman would be a nice addition along with a high draft pick or two. He’s an ascendant player who’s just 23 (happy birthday to him, by the way) with 4.33 speed, and he’s still improving after playing quarterback and corner before switching positions a few years ago. Make me an offer.

CG: Let’s consult one of those nifty trade value charts. You would get our Round 2 Pick No. 63, our Round 4 Pick No. 144, and WR Mecole Hardman in exchange for LT Terron Armstead and a future Round 5 pick.

JS: Multiple picks are enticing but I need a first rounder to justify moving Armstead. He’s a three-time Pro Bowler and an All-Pro quality left tackle. We are so close to reaching cap compliance that we don’t have to move him if we don’t want to. No. 31 has to be on the table.

Additionally, we have more receivers under contract than almost any other position. Hardman would be a nice upgrade but it’s not as critical a hole to fill as, say, cornerback. L’Jarius Snead made a great impression in his game against us and his overall tape is solid for a rookie. We need a new corner after cutting Janoris Jenkins.

So here’s a counter offer: we get Round 1 Pick 31, WR Mecole Hardman, and CB L’Jarius Snead in exchange for LT Terron Armstead and a future Round 5 pick.

CG: Sneed is untouchable for now. But I think we could offer pick No. 31. I see you just released DT Malcolm Brown. We’ve got a surplus of DT talent. How about this for a counteroffer: Round Pick 31, Round 4 Pick 144, and DT Khalen Saunders for LT Terron Armstead and a future 5th round pick.

JS: Saunders is interesting but we have several young defensive tackles we like to help replace Brown. We really need a corner in this deal worse than an interior lineman. What about Charvarius Ward? He’s worked with our new secondary coach Kris Richard in Dallas; Richard probably helped recruit him as an undrafted free agent out of Middle Tennessee. Let’s get them back together.

And let’s not take Hardman off the table so quickly. In my mind, we’re swapping that 2022 fifth rounder for him. Giving up a pick along with Armstead for just another pick and a player isn’t tenable. We’re totally fine with extending his contract and not making a move at all.

So how’s this: Round 1 Pick 31, CB Charvarius Ward, plus WR Mecole Hardman for LT Terron Armstead and a 2022 Round 5 pick.

CG: If you can bump the future pick to a fourth rounder, we’ve got a deal. With Charvarius Ward, he’s a restricted free agent — we could do a sign-and-trade or tender him and trade him and let you handle the details.

JS: Let’s make it conditional based on playing time. If Armstead plays 75% or more of offensive snaps in 2021, it becomes a fourth rounder. If he doesn’t meet that threshold, it remains a fifth rounder.

And let’s tender Ward at the lowest level ($2.133 million) to facilitate the trade. He’ll have an opportunity to earn a long-term extension starting opposite Marshon Lattimore, who we also hope to extend in the days ahead.

CG: Groovy.

JS: Good doing business with you.

So let’s review the deal, what the Saints lost, and what they’ve gotten out of it.

Trading Armstead in the final year of his contract yields $6,612,500 in salary cap savings but opens a huge hole in the offensive line. The immediate replacement plan is to shift Ryan Ramczyk back to left tackle, where he played in college at Wisconsin (which is timely, because he’s due a long-term contract extension this year or next). Right tackles are undervalued and the Saints should be able to find a good one with one of their first-round picks.

I would have liked to get more draft picks out of this but given the Saints’ struggles to find high-impact players lately, well, I’d rather take more proven quantities in Ward and Hardman. Additionally, Armstead has only played 80% and 88% of snaps the last two years; he’s only met that 75% conditional threshold once before, back in 2015. There’s a good chance we keep our fourth rounder next year, but even if it’s lost we still have the fifth round pick.

As for the players: we added speed, youth, and most importantly affordable talent at two positions of need. Hardman is under contract through 2022. He also leads the NFL in touchdown catches of 20-plus yards out of the slot since 2019, and ranks second-best in the league in yards gained after the catch per reception (8.8) in that span. He’s a cost-effective, big-play threat every time he touches the ball, which is what the Saints need at receiver.

I wanted someone with a lighter injury history and a longer contract than Ward, but he’s a good fit. He flirted with Pro Bowl status in 2019 but missed time in 2020 with a fractured hand. Still, he’ll have started in 38 of his 51 NFL game appearances (including 8 playoff games and two Super Bowls) before his 25th birthday. He’s got plenty of pro experience and is in a great spot to cash in next summer while replacing Jackrabbit Jenkins. Reuniting him with Richard could pay off in a big way.

So what do you think? Was the view worth the climb here? The Saints may have plugged some holes on their roster while creating a new one, but it might take creative (and sometimes difficult) solutions like this to compete again in 2021. There’s a ton of uncertainty surrounding the post-Drew Brees era, and it’s anyone’s guess where the Saints might be a year from now.

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What could a Saints trade for Matthew Stafford look like?

The New Orleans Saints have the draft picks to trade for Lions QB Matthew Stafford, but they might need to include a player to seal the deal

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Matthew Stafford won’t play for the Detroit Lions in 2021. He and the Lions have agreed to part ways in a trade, and oddsmakers are already hard at work in guessing where he may land, though the New Orleans Saints are far from favored (they aren’t even in the top 10). Still, could he be the next quarterback Sean Payton looks to work with once Drew Brees entered retirement?

If he’s available, the Saints have to at least call about what it would take to move him. Taysom Hill didn’t show the Saints enough in his four starts last season to trust the franchise with, committing a dozen turnovers (10 fumbles, 2 interceptions) and taking 14 sacks on just 135 dropbacks. And Stafford is the kind of quarterback the Saints might hope Jameis Winston becomes some day. He’s miles ahead of either of the backups in New Orleans right now, and he’s made throws that Saints fans haven’t seen from their quarterbacks in years. His injury history needs vetting, but he turns 33 on Feb. 7 and could play for most of the next decade if things shake out the right way.

The salary cap hits are affordable. Stafford carries numbers of just $20 million in 2021 and $23 million in 2022. New Orleans could lower those figures if needed through one of their most frequent tricks: converting base salary into a signing bonus and adding automatically-voided future years onto the contract to prorate the resulting payouts. From the perspective of salary cap accounting, this is a better fit than, say, Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers. It’s easier to work with given their cap situation than those larger deals.

But what could a trade package entail? It’s going to start with a first-round draft pick, but there are teams ranked above the Saints in priority who can offer more-valuable selections, meaning New Orleans would have to pile up assets to outweigh other options. And they aren’t lacking for competitors if this is a path they want to take.

“The Lions, of course, began immediately fielding calls from teams interested,” reported NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. “From what I understand, about a third of the league, almost a third of the league, has called the Lions. Significant interest in Matthew Stafford.”

One option to consider is whether including a player might sway Detroit’s decision. The Lions hired Saints secondary coach Aaron Glenn as their defensive coordinator on Campbell’s staff, and it’s possible they could include a cornerback in the deal to help install Glenn’s defense and give a proven quantity rather than a mystery box to open on draft day. In the most uncertain draft year ever due to health and safety restrictions, that could be valuable.

So there’s a couple of different directions to take that. Patrick Robinson was buried on the Saints depth chart for much of the year but played well when called upon (though late-season injuries limited how often he could help). He’s a likely salary cap candidate with his release yielding $2.6 million in savings, and probably not as enticing as younger or more prominent players.

Janoris Jenkins could be a possibility but he’s just one year younger, and also has an injury history. His contract will change one way or another (cutting him frees up $7 million, but he’s played well enough to stick around at a lower rate). What about Marshon Lattimore, the team’s other starting corner?

Glenn was Lattimore’s first position coach in the NFL, and no one knows his strengths and weaknesses better. He’s someone the Lions could trust to hold down one spot while Glenn and his assistants focus on coaching up Jeff Okudah and other cornerbacks. Lattimore is also entering the final year of his contract, forcing the Saints into making a very tough decision: whether to sign him to a long-term extension (lowering his $10.244 million 2021 cap hit) or to trade him and reboot that roster spot.

It’s a tough call to make, and worth considering on its own merits. Lattimore has been such a high-variance talent, alternately erasing Mike Evans one week and getting dusted by Allen Lazard the next. When he’s dialed in and focused and healthy (his college hamstring issues have lingered into the NFL), there aren’t many better corners than him. And he’s a great tackler in the open field, doing a lot to boost the Saints run defense. His next contract should reel in at least $17 million annually given how the market is rising. Will the Saints sign him to that, though?

That’s a decision the Saints have to reach sooner rather than later. If they aren’t willing to pay him that highly, they should consider trading him and recouping what they can now. And that might mean including him in a package for Stafford.

And if that’s the case, Lattimore should be more valuable than the picks most teams can offer, even first rounders. So maybe the Saints can trade Lattimore and a second-round pick for Stafford and move on to the next era. That’s comparable to the package that got Alex Smith moved from Kansas City to Washington (who swapped cornerback Kendall Fuller and a third-round pick for the veteran quarterback; Fuller later signed a contract averaging $10 million per year). Stafford is a better quarterback than Smith was at the time, and the compensation reflects that. It’s tough to see the Saints giving up both Lattimore and a first-round pick they may hope to use to replace him.

Alternately, what about a package of their 2021 first-round pick, a third rounder in 2022, and Robinson as a corner who Glenn knows can start in their rebuilding defense? The draft capital is more valuable, but that offsets the loss of a player the Saints may cut anyway.

So are those deals you’d sign off on? Would the Lions even entertain them? We shouldn’t expect any sort of friendly discount between Campbell and Payton, given neither of them are probably going to be involved with trade conversations anyway (that’s between Mickey Loomis and first-year Lions general manager Brad Holmes).

It would leave the Saints with a big hole to fill on defense but a clear vision of where the offense is headed in life after Brees. If nothing else, it’s something worth considering during a brief lull in what should be an exciting Saints offseason.

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BYU’s bluff called, dash own College Football Playoff dreams

BYU will have nobody to blame but themselves when they don’t play in the College Football Playoff next month.

It wasn’t likely that BYU would do enough to make the College Football Playoff in 2020 but you can certainly cross it off even as a remote possibility after what transpired Sunday evening.

BYU, who sits at 9-0 overall and is ranked in the top 10 nationally, had their bluff called on Sunday and will now have nobody to blame but themselves when they ultimately don’t make the College Football Playoff this winter.

For context, we actually have to go back a few days to set the stage, as the Pac-12 announced Wednesday that they would allow each conference member to schedule one out of conference game, adding some wiggle-room to only a six-game regular-season schedule for those who don’t make the conference championship game.

When that was announced there was hope an interest that a few intriguing games would be added to the 2020 college football slate, but one that was proposed since the announcement won’t be played and not doing so is making BYU look foolish.

According to reports from several in the college football community, The University of Washington reached out to BYU on Saturday about scheduling a game later this year.

The Huskies are 2-0 on the year with only two games being played to date and only two games currently scheduled for the rest of the year.  Although not viewed as a College Football Playoff contender themselves, they’d certainly offer a chance for BYU to have another name win on their resume that they hope is good enough to earn them a trip to the CFP.

According to Bruce Feldman, BYU essentially said “thanks but no thanks” to Washington’s offer because they’d like to first know where they sit in the first College Football Playoff Rankings that are due out Tuesday evening.

Here’s a hint for everyone in and around Provo, Utah:

You’ll probably be eighth just like you are in both the AP and Amway Coaches Polls and you’ll be behind another Group of Five team in Cincinnati, just like you are in the AP and Coaches.

Even with Heisman contender, Zach Wilson, BYU needs a good amount of help building their resume if they think they have any shot at crashing the CFP party, and not taking Washington up on their offer does them no favors in that regard.

Even if they were to schedule Washington and win they’d still have an uphill battle but passing on an opponent of even that caliber will kill whatever chances BYU had of making the dance.

Ralph Russo of the AP reports that BYU has concerns over potentially being dropped by Washington if another Pac-12 game was to be made available to them on the same date.

Let me just ask, though:  what if there wasn’t a Pac-12 team that suddenly became available to play for Washington?

It makes BYU look laughable as they tweeted a picture of Wilson on November 20 wearing a bandana that read: “any team, any time, any place”

Except for if they’re a Power Five team who has a history of winning.

Then they’re not for that.

Remember this if and when BYU finishes the season undefeated yet you hear moans that they didn’t get a fair shake about playing in the College Football Playoff.

They’ve got nobody to blame but themselves for looking this foolish.

NFL rule proposal for 4th-and-15 attempt instead of onside kick fails

The recent proposal for NFL teams to attempt a 4th-and-15 conversion following a score failed to pass for the second consecutive year.

The proposition for NFL teams to skip an onside kick and go for it on fourth-and-15 from their 25-yard line following a score failed to pass for the second consecutive year.

This rule was proposed in response to the extremely low probability of an onside kick being recovered by the kicking team, which was 10.7% for the 2019 season. Research found that plays that require converting a fourth-and-15 after a score have a 28.6% success rate.

NFL competition committee chairman Rich McKay told USA TODAY that teams do not want to make it too easy for an opposing team to come back from a deficit.

“There definitely is that theory that you don’t want to make a comeback too easy,” McKay said. “You’ve worked hard all game to be ahead, and you don’t want a rule change to come in and all of a sudden say, ‘We’re going to completely change the odds of you being able to preserve that lead.’ People wanted to hear those statistics. … In those people’s minds, ‘Let’s not make this too easy.’”

There have been a few new rule changes, but nothing related to onside kicks for 2020.

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