Tag: projections

How teams that finished 9-8 in 2021 fared in 2022

The Lions finished 9-8 in 2022. What does history say happens next?

The Detroit Lions rallied furiously from a 1-6 start in 2022 to finish 9-8. Now the world awaits what they can do in the follow-up season.

There isn’t a lot of historical data to pore over to research how teams that finished 9-8 did the following season. The 2022 campaign was just the second with 17 games after decades of NFL teams only playing 16 per season.

Here’s a look at how the teams who went 9-8 in 2021, the first season of 17 games, wound up performing in the 17 games of 2022, as well as how they built to the 9-8 from the 2020 year.

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Sam LaPorta: Projecting the Lions TE rookie stats based on historical production

Sam LaPorta: Projecting the Lions TE rookie stats based on historical production and offensive role

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When the Detroit Lions drafted Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta with the No. 34 overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, they were counting on finding a long-term fixture at the position. LaPorta will also be relied upon to bolster the receiving options in coordinator Ben Johnson’s offense right away, too.

But how much can the Lions reasonably expect to get out of LaPorta as a rookie receiver?

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To project LaPorta’s production in his rookie season, I took a look back at all the tight ends selected in the first two rounds of the draft dating back to 2016. There have been 15 of them, including Detroit’s selection of T.J. Hockenson at No. 8 overall back in 2019.

Here is what each of those 15 tight ends produced as rookies:

Drafted Receptions Yards TDs
Tre McBride 55th in 2022 29 265 1
Kyle Pitts 4th in 2021 68 1,026 1
Pat Freiermuth 55th in 2021 60 497 7
Cole Kmet 43rd in 2020 28 243 2
T.J. Hockenson 8th in 2019 32 367 2
Noah Fant 20th in 2019 40 562 3
Hayden Hurst 25th in 2018 13 163 1
Mike Gesicki 42nd in 2018 22 202 0
Dallas Goedert 49th in 2018 33 334 4
O.J. Howard 19th in 2017 26 432 6
Evan Engram 23rd in 2017 64 722 6
David Njoku 29th in 2017 32 386 4
Gerald Everett 44th in 2017 16 244 2
Adam Shaheen 45th in 2017 12 127 3
Hunter Henry 35th in 2016 36 478 8

Projecting LaPorta

The average for the 15 equates to 34 catches for 403 yards and three touchdowns.

In 2022, the Lions tight ends caught 66 total passes for 784 yards and 12 touchdowns. Before he was traded to Minnesota, Hockenson caught 26 passes for 395 yards and three TDs in seven games for Detroit.

Based on the role in the Lions offense, the historical production data and how I saw LaPorta being utilized in the offseason practices and my pre-draft evaluation of his skills, my projection for his rookie stats:

44 receptions, 518 yards, five TDs

Notes

Current Lions QB Jared Goff was the man throwing passes to Gerald Everett with the Rams in 2017, a year where Goff earned his first Pro Bowl berth.

Pitts topping the production list is not a surprise. He was a hybrid WR/TE at Florida and continues to play that role for the Falcons. Pitts is the only rookie TE on this list to make the Pro Bowl in his first season.

Hockenson and Hurst each only played in 12 games as rookies.

NFC North roundtable: Favorite to finish last in division in 2023

The NFC North Wire editors project which team will finish last in the division in 2023

The NFC North has not had a lot of variety at the top in recent years. It’s been the Packers and Vikings who have ruled the root of divisional supremacy. But 2023 sees the Detroit Lions as the favorite to capture the NFC North.

If there’s a change at the top, that means the bottom could get turned over too.

In the latest of a series of posts previewing the division ahead of the 2023 season, Alyssa Barbieri of Bears Wire, Jeff Risdon of Lions Wire, Zach Kruse of Packers Wire and Tyler Forness of Vikings Wire answered the question: Which team is the most likely to finish in last place in the NFC North?

Browns safety Grant Delpit named defensive breakout candidate for 2023 season

#Browns safety Grant Delpit was named to Bucky Brooks’ All-Breakout team ahead of the 2023 NFL season

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As the 2023 NFL season inches closer by the week, experts are releasing their way-too-early predictions for what the coming campaign might bring. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks published his All-Breakout defensive team ahead of training camp in an article on Friday. Cleveland Browns safety Grant Delpit made the cut for this prestigious prediction after taking a step forward in 2022.

“Delpit flashed Pro Bowl potential in 2022 with 105 tackles, four interceptions and 10 passes defensed. But that could be just the beginning, a foreshadowing of his rise to the ranks of the elite at the position. As a 6-3, 208-pounder comfortable in the deep middle and near the box, Delpit is the kind of versatile, new-age safety NFL teams are looking for.”

Last year Delpit struggled early in Cleveland’s schedule, but as the season played out fans saw why the Browns drafted him in the second round in 2020.

According to PFF, Delpit had a total of 32 stop tackles, allowed just two touchdowns in coverage, and showed progress each week. Now with upgraded talent around him and Jim Schwartz spearheading the defensive playcalling, Delpit is poised to become an integral part of the Browns’ defense in 2023.

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ESPN’s Football Power Index puts Cowboys in top 10, with 6th-best chances to win Super Bowl

From @ToddBrock24f7: The Cowboys are behind Philadelphia and San Francisco in several key categories, but consistently rank third among NFC clubs for 2023.

The Worldwide Leader has released its initial set of Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, and the numbers put the Cowboys within striking distance of the top of the NFC heading into the 2023 season.

The predictive rating system uses win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule data, but also factors in past team performance and returning starters. What results is a crystal-ball projection of how each team stacks up against a statistically average team on a neutral field.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Eagles and 49ers are still considered the class of the conference, but if Dallas holds to the trajectory they seem to be on currently, they stand to be right in the mix of things come season’s end and perhaps primed to pull a one-game upset that catapults them deep into the playoffs.

Here’s how the Cowboys rank in the key categories.

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Rookie Projections: Detroit Lions’ RB Jahmyr Gibbs

Projecting the stats for Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs in his upcoming rookie season.

Former Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs is preparing to begin his rookie season in the NFL after being selected No. 12 overall by the Detroit Lions in the 2023 draft. Many believed he was selected earlier than he should have been, but the franchise is confident that they got their guy.

Gibbs only played one season at Alabama after transferring in from Georgia Tech, but he was a star for the Crimson Tide offense. On 151 attempts, he had 926 yards on the ground and seven rushing touchdowns. He was also an effective receiving threat, as he hauled in 44 receptions for 444 yards and three receiving touchdowns.

Natalie Miller of the Draft Wire put together projections for all Lions rookies ahead of the 2023 season and has high expectations for Gibbs.

Gibbs, according to Miller, will rush for 975 yards, have 500 receiving yards and reach the end zone a total of eight times.

“The Lions shocked just about everyone when they took running back Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 overall in the draft, but they clearly took him there with a plan in mind,” writes Miller. “Gibbs will likely not only be a primary running force in a rotation with David Montgomery, but will also provide plenty of explosion in the short-yardage passing attack. Should he hit the ground running, expect Gibbs to be in the race for offensive rookie of the year.”

Gibbs will be an important member of the Lions offense in 2023, the Detroit front office surely hopes to prove all of the doubters of their No. 12 overall pick wrong.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to follow Gibbs and other former Alabama players getting started in the NFL.

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Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow AJ Spurr on Twitter @SpurrFM. 

Chiefs’ defensive depth chart projections before OTAs

With OTAs beginning soon, we take a crack at projecting the defensive depth chart for the #Chiefs’ 90-man offseason roster.

The Kansas City Chiefs kick off their organized team activities on Monday, May 22.

This is the first opportunity for both rookies and veterans alike to get some on-field work together. However, this portion of the offseason workout program is strictly voluntary, so not everyone will be around.

These are what Andy Reid considers “passing camps.” They’re not particularly great for the defensive side of the ball, given that there isn’t any hitting or contact. The defensive backs and linebackers will get some good opportunities to work on coverage, but that’s about it.

With team drills being allowed during OTAs, we’re taking a crack at projecting the defensive depth chart for the 90-man roster down below:

Alabama Football: Projecting stat leaders for the 2023 season

Roll Tide Wire projects which Alabama Football players will lead in each of the major stat categories heading into the 2023 season.

Alabama will have no shortage of talent to choose from for the 2023 season. The Tide brought in five transfers and signed the No. 1 overall recruiting class in the country. Not to mention, the Tide will return several of its key starters from a season ago.

Altogether, Alabama is poised to be a contender in the SEC, and a College Football Playoff hopeful.

With quarterback Bryce Young and outside linebacker Will Anderson Jr. heading to the NFL, Alabama will have to rely on some new faces. Additionally, there could be some other new faces at different positions as well.

Roll Tide Wire projects the major statistical category leaders for the football team heading into the 2023 season.

Game-by-game predictions for the 2023 Detroit Lions schedule

Here’s an early prediction, going game by game through the 2023 Lions schedule and picking wins and losses.

The 2023 Detroit Lions are offseason favorites to win the NFC North division. Coming off a strong 8-2 finish that vaulted Detroit into second place a year ago, the returning core and augmented talent via free agency and the draft is expected to compete for a playoff berth. Maybe even a postseason home game…or two!

For that to happen, the Lions have to take care of business. The recently released season schedule is an interesting one, with some peculiarities that could slow down the franchise’s momentum. Can they prevail and get back into the postseason for the first time since 2016?

Here’s an early prediction, going game by game through the 2023 Lions schedule and picking wins and losses. It’s an early guess at the outcomes for Dan Campbell’s team this coming season.

Full disclosure: In last year’s edition of this “schedule game,” I projected the Lions to finish 7-10. Here’s hoping I lowballed them again…

Watch: Breaking down the Lions schedule and picking wins and losses

The Detroit Lions Podcast break down the Lions schedule for 2023 and predicts wins and losses in each game

The Detroit Lions slate of games was released on Thursday night. That means it’s time for the “schedule game”!

The Detroit Lions Podcast broke down all the games on the team’s schedule, including the rise into four prime-time games and several kickoffs outside the typical 1 p.m. window each Sunday.

Then comes the real fun: picking wins and losses in each game. There is some disagreement on quite a few of the outcomes, but both paths lead to the postseason for Detroit.