Tag: projections

This Lions season projection is a thorn in the positivity paw

USA TODAY national analyst Nate Davis is one of the few not projecting the Detroit Lions to win the NFC North in 2024

In years past, it was quite notable when a national NFL analyst projected big things for the Detroit Lions. Years of futility and disappointment made finding an optimistic, bullish take on the Lions ahead of training camp a rarity.

Not anymore, certainly not after Detroit’s 2023 campaign — the best season for the Lions in the Super Bowl era. This summer, it’s notable when an analyst pours some cold water on the fiery dreams and visions of Detroit grandeur for 2024. Yet we did manage to find one…

Nate Davis of USA TODAY is one of the few national analysts who has broken ranks with the Lions as the predicted winners of the NFC North. Davis instead projects the Green Bay Packers to take back the divisional crown in 2024, with the Lions finishing second.

Davis does have the Lions finishing comfortably in the playoffs with a record of 11-6, good enough for the top wild card seed.

The rest of a division the Lions just won for the first time is also fast improving. A pathway to the first Super Bowl berth in franchise history likely requires a strong start as the Lions play just two home games over an eight-week period spanning October and November. But it could happen if a young core continues to blossom – WR Jameson Williams needs to step up – and reaps results from an upgraded pass defense.

In propping up the Packers, Davis notes their youth and also a change in defensive coordinator that Green Bay hopes overcome recent underachievement from that unit.

Expanding out the projections, Davis has the Lions knocking off the NFC South champs, the Atlanta Falcons, in the wild card round game before succumbing to the Packers in Green Bay in the NFC Divisional Round.

A quick check of last year’s predictions shows Davis is not a Lions hater; he correctly pegged them as the NFC North champs, going 11-6. Detroit did indeed win the division for the first time, finishing 12-5.

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Lions get the most projected Super Bowl wins in the next 5 seasons of any NFC team

A panel of 8 national analysts at The MMQB projects Lions get the most projected Super Bowl wins in the next 5 seasons of any NFC team

The Detroit Lions remain one of the few NFL franchises that has never been to a Super Bowl, let alone captured a Super Bowl title. However, the times, they are a-changin’…

The Monday Morning Quarterback crew at Sports Illustrated recently put together an expectation of which teams will win the next five Super Bowls, in no particular order or sequence. Detroit wound up getting the most projected wins of any team except the reigning champs, the Kansas City Chiefs.

The 8-person panel of MMQB analysts picked the Lions to win six overall times. That’s the most of any NFC team, eclipsing the 49ers, who had five total championships forecasted.

One analyst, Greg Bishop, predicted two titles in the next five seasons for the Lions. Four others expect Dan Campbell’s Lions to hoist the Lombardi Trophy once, with Conor Orr boldly projecting the Lions to win the title after the upcoming 2024 season.

Even one summer ago, these sorts of predictions would have seemed like sensationalist clickbait. Now? Yeah, the Lions are legit contenders and expected to remain there by nearly everyone.

CFB expert predicts two losses on Alabama’s 2024 schedule

See which two games one expert believes Alabama will lose in the 2024 college football season.

The upcoming 2024 college football season will be interesting for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Not only does the program have to recover from a headline-worthy coaching change, but there was significant roster turnover and the landscape of college football is impacted by serious change.

When legendary head coach Nick Saban announced his decision to retire, the Crimson Tide moved quickly to hire one of the best coaches in the nation, former Washington Huskies lead man, Kalen DeBoer.

Throughout the offseason, experts, analysts, and fans have had a difficult time projecting how Alabama will perform in 2024 with a new coach, a handful of key contributors gone by way of the NFL draft and transfer portal, and with mass conference realignment going into effect.

One college football pundit, Will Backus of CBS Sports predicts the Crimson Tide will lose two games in the upcoming 2024 season: at home against the Georgia Bulldogs and on the road against the Tennessee Volunteers.

“There’s no reason to expect significant drop off from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer,” writes Backus. “The Crimson Tide will still be right around the top of the conference and in the College Football Playoff conversation all year long. That being said, Alabama did lose some key players to the transfer portal and have some questions on the roster — including immense turnover at both receiver and in the defensive secondary — that might have them losing some tough games against other premier SEC programs. Ten wins is still more than enough to make a 12-team playoff field, and the Crimson Tide certainly have the capability for more, especially with DeBoer’s track record.”

Expectations are somewhat mitigated for the dynastic program that was still able to reach the final four-team College Football Playoffs despite having an off season. For DeBoer, the pressure is on. While fans aren’t sure what to expect, they do know what they want: to win.

Competing for national championships has become the standard in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama has consistently been in contention to reach the playoffs just about every single year of the format’s decade-long existence.

Losing two games in 2024, as Backus projects, may seem like a sub-standard season for the Crimson Tide. However, it is important to remember that with the playoff field expanding to 12 teams, there’s still a high likelihood that the 10-win resumé would be enough to get them in.

Only time will tell how Alabama will perform in the upcoming season. The nation will get its first glimpse at the post-Saban era on Aug. 31 as the Crimson Tide takes on Western Kentucky at home in Bryant-Denny Stadium to begin the 2024 season.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to follow Alabama football as the 2024 offseason progresses.

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on X, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow AJ Spurr on X @SpurrFM. 

One analytics model has Commanders with fewest wins in the NFL in 2024

One model has the Commanders winning fewer games in 2024 than they won last season.

The Washington Commanders won four games in 2023. They were terrible on defense, finishing last in virtually every metric. Offensively, Washington wasn’t a lot better. The Commanders led the NFL in passing attempts yet finished last in rushing attempts.

Washington had some much-needed change this offseason, starting with general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn. The Commanders were busy in free agency and the NFL draft, but fans hope the new and improved coaching staff can help Washington’s returning players rebound from a poor season.

How good will the Commanders be in 2024? Some believe they can win anywhere from six to eight games, which would be a good building block in Quinn’s first season.

However, Sports Info Solutions doesn’t believe in Washington in 2024.

SIS recently used its model to project win totals for all 32 NFL teams next season. The Commanders came in last with a projected 3.2 wins. DraftKings had projected Washington to have 6.5 wins. That’s quite the difference.

It’s challenging to see Washington winning fewer than four games in 2024. Could it happen? Sure. But the Commanders will be better next season, with so much of their progress mirroring rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels’ development.

Saints projected to take a step down in 2024 by NFL analyst

Cynthia Frelund projects the Saints will fall back into a losing record in 2024 after finishing with a 9-8 tally last season:

NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund did her season projections after the NFL schedule release, and it doesn’t look good for Dennis Allen and the New Orleans Saints. Frelund based her totals off talent, opponents, and sequencing of the schedule. Consecutive tough games is valued differently than three tough games in 7 weeks. She ran 150,000 simulations, and these were her results.

Frelund projects the Saints will finish with 7.4 wins, which rounds down to a 7-10 record. That’s a two-game drop from last year’s 9-8 record. This outcome would draw a mix of disappointing and slightly unsurprised reactions. The Saints have a very similar roster to last year, so staying in the same win range as 2023 isn’t unreasonable. Coaching changes, however, spark optimism of a more successful season. Getting worse would be a definite disappointment.

7-10 would match New Orleans’ 2022 record and be the second losing season in Dennis Allen’s Saints tenure. It very well could be his last. The amount of pressure Allen is under is unclear, but it doesn’t feel like he should be able to survive a losing season this year.

By Frelund’s projections, New Orleans would finish third in the division and a distance from the playoff picture. Tampa Bay is close with 7.8 victories, but that rounds to 8 wins. To no surprise, Atlanta is projected to win the division with 9.9 victories, which is good for fourth most in the NFC. The Saints would be faced with major questions if the season transpires this way, so Dennis Allen’s team must beat those expectations.

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Gators still projected to make 2024 NCAA Baseball as 3-seed

D1Baseball’s latest NCAA Tournament projections has the Florida Gators as a No. 3 seed in a competitive region led by No. 13 Duke.

Florida’s path to an NCAA Tournament return isn’t so clear a year after making it to the College World Series Finals.

The Gators would make the field of 64 as the No. 3 seed in the Durham Region hosted by No. 13 Duke, according to D1Baseball’s Week 13 projections. The UC Irvine Anteaters are the No. 2 seed and the Columbia Lions are the No. 4 seed in this scenario.

At least one of those matchups favors the Orange and Blue. Florida swept Columbia in February, outscoring the Lions by 20 runs over three games, but the other two teams in that proposed region are relative unknowns to UF.

Two key series against ranked opponents remain on Florida’s schedule. Winning out against No. 3 Kentucky and No. 15 Georgia could mean a significant jump for Florida, but losing all six games could mean missing out on the tournament entirely.

A top-25 ranking on the RPI report means that Florida has a better chance to make it than miss. The Gators essentially control their fate with a small shot to host a regional — a strong finish to the regular season and a deep run at the SEC Tournament is almost necessary, though.

Follow us @GatorsWire on Twitter and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida Gators news, notes and opinions.

2024 mock drafts split on who the Saints will pick in latest roundup

The latest round of 2024 mock drafts are split on who the Saints will pick, but there’s a clear emphasis on one offensive lineman:

Everyone has an opinion on what the New Orleans Saints should do (or will do) in the 2024 NFL draft, so we surveyed the picks from 10 recent mock drafts to get an idea of which prospects are being linked to the black and gold.

And those opinions are split. Seven different players were suggested in those 10 different projections, but there’s one clear favorite. Here’s what we found:

College Football Playoff – How Final Four Should Be

Here is how things should look Sunday. Agree?

College football’s conference championship weekend has come and gone.  With it came Alabama ending Georgia’s extensive winning streak.  Did the Tide kill the Bulldogs chance of a College Football Playoff berth in doing so?

Will Alabama get in with the SEC championship, even though they were rated eighth in the most recent rankings?

Will Texas get credit for the early season win over Alabama and get in over the Tide?

And will Florida State get passed over despite running the table and going 13-0 after winning the ACC championship Saturday night?

Here is how the College Football Playoff should set up (not will) when its announced Sunday:

Updated Saints 2024 draft pick projections after Broncos’ 4-game winning streak

The Broncos have won four games in a row, dramatically shifting the Saints’ projected picks in the 2024 NFL draft:

This isn’t great. The Denver Broncos have won four games in a row, improving their record to 5-5 in Sean Payton’s first year on the job — powered by five Wil Lutz field goals in a Sunday night win against the Minnesota Vikings.

All of their success has a ripple effect on the New Orleans Saints, who are receiving Denver’s second- and seventh-round 2024 draft picks after trading Payton and Lutz to them earlier this year. Where are the Saints projected to be picking now that the Broncos have turned things around?

Here’s the Saints’ updated draft order from Tankathon, based off the latest standings after Week 11:

  • Round 1, pick 19
  • Round 2, pick 47 (via Denver Broncos)
  • Round 4, pick 136 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, pick 155
  • Round 5, pick 171 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, pick 174 (compensatory)
  • Round 6, pick 196
  • Round 6, pick 209 (via Philadelphia Eagles)
  • Round 7, pick 235 (via Denver Broncos)

Remember, those compensatory draft picks for 2023 free agents David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport, and Kaden Elliss will not be awarded until March, and it’s possible the expert predictions miss the mark. We’ll have to wait and see.

For now, it’s looking like there will be a sizeable gap between the Saints’ second-round choice (coming from Denver) and their next pick, whether it’s a compensatory fourth rounder or their own pick in the fifth round. Trading so many early-round picks away like Mickey Loomis has done will do that. Philadelphia controls the Saints’ second-round selection, while Denver has New Orleans’ third-round choice, and the Saints’ fourth-round pick is going to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Hopefully those compensatory picks transfer as expected.

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SEC Bowl Projections: Alabama to the Peach Bowl in latest from USA TODAY Sports

Alabama’s projected opponent in the Peach Bowl may come as a shocking surprise

With only three weeks left in the 2023 college football season, it’s time to start taking a quick glance at what this bowl season may have to offer. It is the final year of the four-team playoff before expanding to the 12-team so this is the final year of the bowl season as we know it.

For the Alabama Crimson Tide, their playoff aspirations are still alive but they are definitely going to need to have some games go in their favor over these next couple of weeks. Alabama still has road trips to Kentucky and Auburn that should not be overlooked, but they will likely be a double-digit favorite in both games. So, the Tide’s playoff hopes and aspirations will likely entirely come down to Dec. 2 when they will more than likely take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Atlanta with the SEC Championship on the line.

USA TODAY Sports already has their eye on bowl season as they have released their Week 10 bowl projections. Erick Smith does not share my optimism that Alabama will be playing in the final four but rather has them playing a shocking opponent in the Peach Bowl.