Tag: Projection

2024 NFL mock draft ahead of the regular season finale

Draft Wire’s Jeff Risdon posts the final 2024 NFL draft projections from the 2023 regular season

Week 18 has arrived across the NFL. For some teams, it’s the end of the line for the 2023 season and the unofficial kickoff of the offseason. Others are fighting for playoff berths or seedings and won’t go into offseason mode for at least another week.

Either way, we’ve got some help on the way for all 32 teams in the latest 1-round 2024 NFL mock draft projections.

The draft order is the actual NFL standings and slotting entering the Week 18 action. No trades in this one. As always, projections at this time of the year are about ideas and concepts, not steadfast predictions; we haven’t seen all of the upcoming head coaching and GM changes that are bound to come, after all.

2024 NFL draft order: Saints’ range of outcomes narrows after Week 17

Where are the Saints picking in the 2024 NFL draft? The latest projection after Week 17 has narrowed down their range of outcomes:

We’re getting a better idea of the 2024 NFL draft order after Week 17’s games — for one thing, the Carolina Panthers have already locked up the first overall pick, which they unfortunately chose to trade to the Chicago Bears, who are on the clock. But where are the New Orleans Saints slotted in? Where might they end up?

At the moment, the experts at Tankathon project the Saints to own the No. 13 overall pick. But that could change depending on Week 18’s results. The lowest the Saints could go with a win over the Atlanta Falcons (but without qualifying for the playoffs) would be No. 16. Thanks to their low strength of schedule (.430), the Saints would win any tiebreakers with other 9-win teams that don’t reach the postseason. Right now, that means the Houston Texans (who traded their pick to the Arizona Cardinals) and Pittsburgh Steelers at Nos. 17 and 18, respectively.

What if the Saints lose to the Falcons next Sunday? Would that give them a big boost in the rankings? Maybe so. There’s a large clump of 9-loss teams, so it’s tough to say where New Orleans would slot in, partly because one of those teams are the Falcons themselves. Draft order is determined by strength of schedule before any other tiebreakers, and that’s an area they would likely have an edge on the Saints (at .423). So the highest pick the Saints could expect in the event of a Week 18 loss is probably No. 10 overall.

That’s too low to get a quarterback, and it’s unlikely head coach Dennis Allen would sign off on picking a rookie passer anyway. His goal is to support Derek Carr, not replace him, and that is a good spot to find a high-end offensive lineman or pass rusher who could help address the Saints’ most critical needs. But if there’s a year to finally trade down and acquire more picks, it’s this one: the Saints only own one other selection in the top four rounds (the No. 45 pick in the second round, coming back from the Denver Broncos) and they badly need to reload their roster. The Saints haven’t traded down since 2007, but they’re bound to break that streak sooner or later.

And there’s one other variable we haven’t hit on: what if the Saints beat the odds and clinch a playoff berth? At that point they’d be picking anywhere from Nos. 19 to 32 depending on how far they advance. Reaching the postseason has always been their goal and we should expect them to compete for that, not draft order jockeying. We should find out where exactly the Saints are picking in the first round in the weeks ahead, but don’t expect a full draft order to be finalized (with compensatory draft picks) until March.

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Bye week breakdown: Taking a look at Chiefs TE Travis Kelce’s 2023 season so far

Take a look at what #Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has done during the 2023 season as Kansas City takes its bye week.

Travis Kelce’s 2023 season with the Kansas City Chiefs has been multifaceted. His on-field production has been just one part of his story this season, as the budding romance between the All-Pro tight end and pop superstar Taylor Swift has dominated headlines since August.

Kelce’s role in Kansas City’s offense remains a focal point for Chiefs fans amid the team’s effort to defend its Super Bowl title. His ability to gain gritty yards after the catch remains unchanged, and even as Andy Reid’s offense has appeared to falter early in the season, Kelce’s production has remained a constant.

With eight games remaining in the season, Kelce is Kansas City’s leading receiver by a wide margin. While the Chiefs’ receiving corps continues to figure itself out, Kelce’s consistency has helped Patrick Mahomes keep Kansas City atop the AFC standings heading into the most important part of its schedule.

Take a look at what Kelce has accomplished in 2023 so far, and the pace he has established for himself through nine games:

Bye week breakdown: Taking a look at Patrick Mahomes’ 2023 season so far

Take a look at what #Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has done during the 2023 season as Kansas City takes its bye week.

The Kansas City Chiefs won’t play in Week 10 after taking down the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany last Sunday. The Chiefs are taking a much-needed break for their bye midway through the 2023 season, and with eight games remaining on Kansas City’s schedule, it is time to take stock of what the team has accomplished and where they are headed.

Patrick Mahomes is, without question, the single most important factor in the Chiefs’ chances to defend their Super Bowl title. The 2023 season hasn’t been his best, but the reigning MVP should be expected to pick up his pace and get back into championship form over the next eight weeks.

Take a look at the statistics Mahomes has put up through nine games and the pace he has established heading into the home stretch of Kansas City’s Super Bowl defense campaign:

DVOA projects Packers to make playoffs in 2023

The Packers might be average in most areas in 2023, but that might be enough to make the playoffs in the NFC. Here’s the DVOA projection.

Projections made by Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric have the Green Bay Packers making the playoffs as the final wildcard team in the NFC during the 2023 season.

The DVOA forecast uses a number of projection variables, including three-year DVOA trends and a prediction for each starting quarterback. Personnel changes are also factored into the projection. The Packers lost several veteran players and future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers from last year’s 8-9 team.

While the Packers ranked only 19th in DVOA’s projection, the model gave the Packers an average of 9.2 wins and a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs, in large part due to Green Bay’s weak schedule (ranked 29th) and the lack of quality teams in the NFC. Matt LaFleur’s team is viewed as the definition of average, with the No. 17 offense, No. 16 defense and No. 16 special teams projected by DVOA in 2023.

As is the case with Schatz’s projection model, so much of the Packers’ potential as a team rests on the shoulders of Jordan Love and where he ranks in the pantheon of starting quarterbacks. If he’s an average or better starter, the Packers have enough talent at running back, along the offensive line and on defense to surprise as an NFC playoff team.

In the DVOA projection, the Detroit Lions are the 12th best team and win the NFC North. The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears ranked 26th and 30th, respectively. In a wide open division and a conference lacking depth, the Packers should have a legitimate shot at the postseason in 2023.

How New Orleans Saints media projects the 53-man roster

How New Orleans Saints media projects the 53-man roster: Surveying latest projections to see who’s in, who’s out, and who’s on the bubble

We’re hours away from kickoff in the third and final New Orleans Saints preseason game, and everyone has their take on which players are going to make it through roster cuts on Tuesday — and who might be left on the outside looking in.

So to get an idea of each player’s odds of making the team, we surveyed the latest 53-man roster projections from ten different media outlets covering the Saints. Radio shows, newspapers, and online platforms were each considered. Here’s what we found:

14 most challenging cuts from our latest Saints 53-man roster projection

Breaking down the 14 most challenging cuts from our latest New Orleans Saints 53-man roster projection:

They aren’t without their faults, but the New Orleans Saints have built a strong team this year. If they can just keep their best players healthy they should run away with the NFC South title and potentially make some noise in the postseason.

But the road to get there isn’t as easy as you’d think. A lot of talented players and likeable young men are going to be left on the outside looking in. Many of them will get a second chance on the Saints practice squad, but for others Sunday’s preseason game with the Houston Texans is going to be the last time they wear a helmet with a fleur-de-lis on the side of it.

So which roster cuts were the most challenging in our latest projection? For one reason or another, these moves gave us the most pause:

Updated New Orleans Saints 53-man roster projection after second preseason game

We’ve updated our New Orleans Saints 53-man roster projection after the team’s second preseason game, this time including the practice squad:

The first two New Orleans Saints preseason games are in the books, and we’ve learned a lot from their performance in exhibition matchups. So how does it change the outlook in our 53-man roster projections? What about the practice squad?

That’s what we’re working to resolve today, going through the roster by each position group and making our best guess at which players might make the cut next week. There’s still time for some guys on the bubble to strengthen their case, and others are still on the fringe.

For the practice squad, six spots are reserved for veteran players with two or more years of experience in the NFL; the other ten slots are for rookies and those with just one accrued season.

With a flurry of trades and veteran signings around the corner while dozens of players are released in the cut-down from 90 to 53, here’s where the Saints currently stand:

Projecting the New Orleans Saints’ 53-man roster after their first preseason game

Who is on the rise? Who could be on the outside looking in? Projecting the New Orleans Saints’ 53-man roster after their first preseason game:

Who is on the rise? Who could be on the outside looking in? We’re going to be prisoners of the moment and project the New Orleans Saints’ 53-man roster after their first preseason game, which will probably look like an overreaction in a week or two. With so few roster spots up for grabs, players on the bubble need to make the most of every opportunity when they get onto  the field for these exhibition games.

Let’s break it down by each position:

Pre-training camp 53-man roster projection for Chiefs

Our @goldmctNFL takes another stab at projecting the #Chiefs’ 53-man roster ahead of training camp.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterbacks, rookies and injured players report to Missouri Western State University in St. Joseph, Missouri for training camp on Tuesday. Veteran players won’t be too far behind them with a Saturday report date.

Every year, training camp serves as a proving ground for the majority of players on the 90-man offseason roster. While plenty of spots are more than secure, competition will make the team better and allow the team to fill the few spots left up for grabs.

Fresh off a Super Bowl win, this group of players is as competitive as they come. Those who perform during training camp will have the best chance to make the team and carry that momentum into the regular season.

With all of that in mind, here’s our latest projected 53-man roster for the Chiefs: