Tag: Projected

Eagles on track to receive top-6 draft pick from Saints in 2023

2023 NFL draft: Eagles on pace to receive top-6 pick from Saints trade

Yikes. The New Orleans Saints pushed all their chips in on Dennis Allen’s vision for the team in 2022, mortgaging their most valuable asset for 2023 along the way: a pick in the first round of next year’s draft that will go not to New Orleans, but to the Philadelphia Eagles.

And the latest projection at Tankathon has that draft pick slotted in at No. 6 overall. With the Saints staggering into a 3-6 record on their season so far, it’s very possible that’s what they’ll end up giving Philly instead of the mid-20’s pick New Orleans estimated upon first making this trade.

But it’s not like the warning signs weren’t there. Dennis Allen won eight games in two years before the Raiders showed him the door. Neither Jameis Winston nor Andy Dalton accomplished enough in the NFL to deserve much confidence that they could lead this team on a deep playoff run. It was a risky endeavor from the jump, and while they could still hypothetically turn it around, it feels like we’re past that point.

So just how vital is the No. 6 pick? Draft picks are like new cars in that they lose value as soon as you take them off the lot, but here are the players picked at this slot in recent years:

  • 2022: LT Ikem Ekwonu
  • 2021: WR Jaylen Waddle
  • 2020: QB Justin Herbert
  • 2019: QB Daniel Jones
  • 2018: LG Quenton Nelson
  • 2017: DB Jamal Adams

Every one of those players is either a high-profile playmaker, an every-down starting lineman, or a potential franchise quarterback. Six of the players drafted No. 6 overall over the last decade have been selected for at least one Pro Bowl. The Saints have played so poorly this year that they could really use the help a rookie drafted here would bring, but instead they’ll be sending that pick to the Super Bowl-favorite Eagles.

But, hey, things could change in a hurry. The Saints could get hot and rattle off a series of wins and take the NFC South. It just doesn’t feel very likely given how little reason for hope they’ve given fans on the year so far. Odds are they will win some games down the stretch and end up shipping a less-valuable pick to Philadelphia. But if things don’t improve, well: now we know what’s at stake.

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The Saints picked a bad year to trade their first round draft pick

The Saints picked a bad year to trade their first round draft pick. If the season ended today, they’d send a top-10 selection to the Eagles:

Mickey Loomis needs to stop answering the phone when Howie Roseman calls him. The Philadelphia Eagles have gotten so much from the New Orleans Saints in the last year; the Saints made an emotional decision to trade away star nickel C.J. Gardner-Johnson at a loss, just months after they sold a 2023 first round draft pick (and more assets) that was ultimately spent on a player who wasn’t ready to start right away, and who has since landed on injured reserve until at least November. The Saints have badly misevaluated themselves and their place in the NFL hierarchy without Sean Payton at the wheel.

If the season ended today and started the draft cycle tomorrow, New Orleans would be slotted in at No. 7 overall, per Tankathon — and that pick is going to the Eagles, meaning the Saints wouldn’t be on the clock until No. 38 overall. Sending a top-10 draft choice to the conference’s only 3-0 team would be, well, far from ideal. It doesn’t help that the Eagles have gotten the better of the Saints in each of their last two meetings, and New Orleans will see them again late this year. They’re losing to Philadelphia on and off the field.

Now let’s get into the reasons for optimism. The Saints have not drafted well lately anyway, even in the first round — of their last five first rounders, only one (Chris Olave) has made an instant impact. Trevor Penning looked like he was a year away from starting even before his Lisfranc injury. Payton Turner has been a healthy scratch in multiple games his first two years in the league. Cesar Ruiz is finally beginning to turn the corner in his third season. Marcus Davenport’s struggles in learning to play out of a three-point stance and managing injuries have been well-documented.

The Saints have spent recent top-100 picks on multiple players who have been limited to special teams like Zack Baun and Alontae Taylor (pre-injury), and other mid-round picks like Adam Trautman, Ian Book, and Rick Leonard have bordered on being unplayable. This is a really, really charitable spin on it but there’s no guaranteeing that the Saints would make a good investment with the No. 7 overall pick even if they weren’t shipping it to Philly.

So we’ll try and feel grateful that it’s a long season, and the Saints still have a clear path to the playoffs. They’re a game and a half behind in the division standings, and so many of their problems are self-inflicted. They can clean up the penalties and mental mistakes, work on the missed tackles, and better rehearse the pre-snap process to give Jameis Winston more avenues for adjusting protection when the defense is sending pressure. There’s absolutely a scenario where they shake off these early-season issues and go on a tear. It’s just going to take a lot of work. And if they don’t turn things around, well — there isn’t much of a light at the end of the tunnel without a valuable first round pick waiting on them.

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What could a C.J. Gardner-Johnson contract extension look like?

C.J. Gardner-Johnson wants a contract extension before the end of his four-year rookie deal, but what could he and the New Orleans Saints agree to?

A new subplot kicked off at New Orleans Saints training camp this week with news of C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s quasi-hold-in in pursuit of a new contract before the end of his four-year rookie deal. So what would an extension look like? To make a good guess, we did some research. It’s Aug. 4. Let’s compare some recent summertime Saints contract extensions and their guarantees:

  • RT Ryan Ramczyk: signed on July 1, receiving $60 million of $96 million in guarantees (62.5%)
  • WR Michael Thomas: signed on July 31, receiving $35.64 million of $96.25 million in guarantees (37.0%)
  • RB Alvin Kamara: signed on Sept. 12, receiving $33.83 million of $75 million in guarantees (45.1%)
  • LB Demario Davis: signed on Sept. 12, receiving $14.75 million of $27 million in guarantees (54.6%)
  • CB Marshon Lattimore: signed on Sept. 13, receiving $44.34 million of $97 million in guarantees (45.75%)

That’s an average of 48.9% in guarantees, which lines up well with the 51.7% average that top slot defenders around the league are seeing. Here are the five defensive backs who have, like Gardner-Johnson, logged 400-plus slot snaps last season and are playing on multiyear, double-digit deals:

  • Kenny Moore: signed for four years, $33.3 million ($8.33 million per year) with $13.25 million guaranteed (39.8%)
  • Taron Johnson: signed for three years, $24 million ($8 million per year), with $13.95 million guaranteed (58.1%)
  • Avonte Maddox: signed for three years, $22.5 million ($7.5 million per year), with $14.17 million guaranteed (63.0%)
  • Mike Hilton: signed for four years, $24 million ($6 million per year), with $6 million guaranteed (25.0%)
  • Jourdan Lewis: signed for three years, $13.5 million ($4.5 million per year), with $7.75 million guaranteed (57.4%)

So there are some clear outliers here, like the small guarantees Hilton received and the low per-year value in Lewis’ deal. Take those two out of the equation and you’ll get this proposal: three years, $26.6 million ($7.94 million per year) with $15.46 million guaranteed (58.6%). That’s heavier in guarantees than the Saints typically like to agree to, but the length and per-year salary may be to their liking. It leaves room for flexibility with a couple of void years to be tacked onto the end for accounting purposes, future roster bonuses that could be restructured, and actual negotiations would go more in-depth for how those guarantees are distributed (for example, Moore received just $9 million in guarantees at signing with injury vesting guarantees conveying later on).

So let’s say that Harley, Loomis and the Saints work down to lower guarantees in exchange for a slightly higher per-year salary, which resets the market for slot specialists while giving the team opportunities to restructure in a year or two and retain cap flexibility. Our revised proposal: four years, $34 million ($8.5 million per year) with $16.8 million in guarantees (49.4%). That gives Gardner-Johnson what he’s earned, as well as some bragging rights with the NFL’s highest per-year salary for a slot defender (ranking 24th among all cornerbacks and 20th among safeties), while the Saints can navigate the salary cap as needed and maybe get out of this contract after about two years without much penalty if need be. But Gardner-Johnson has only seen his star rise with New Orleans so there’s a real chance he sees every penny in this deal.

Things will no doubt be more complicated once Gardner-Johnson’s representatives sit down with the Saints’ brass. This is just a starting point from the outside looking in. But it feels like fair compensation for what Gardner-Johnson brings to the team and how he compares to his peers across the league. With the salary cap about to go to the moon once new broadcasting rights contracts inject higher revenue to the NFL’s coffers, players like Gardner-Johnson are well-positioned to cash in.

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Saints fell flat in Week 9, but so did almost every other NFC playoff contender

Saints fell flat in Week 9, but so did almost every other NFC playoff contender

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Let’s try and find the silver lining on this storm cloud. The New Orleans Saints picked a good time to drop maybe their most frustrating loss of the season, with almost every other team ahead of them in the NFC playoff picture also coming up short. With the exception of the Arizona Cardinals, currently projected to win the No. 1 seed and the only postseason bye week that comes with it, the teams currently slotted in at Nos. 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are each coming off of a loss.

Here’s a quick look at the projected NFC playoff picture:

Saints are $101M over projected 2021 salary cap, which isn’t as bad as it looks

The New Orleans Saints acquired Pro Bowl LB Kwon Alexander in a trade with the 49ers, making their 2021 salary cap outlook more complex.

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The decision to acquire San Francisco 49ers linebacker Kwon Alexander on the eve of the NFL trade deadline has put the New Orleans Saints past another salary cap milestone. They’re now counting more than $276 million on the books for 2021, when the salary cap is projected to be $175 million. That’s going to result in many, many difficult decisions for New Orleans.

They were already flirting with unprecedented territory before trading for Alexander; but now his $13.4 million salary cap hit is on the books. But as large as that mountain appears to be at first blush, the climb to the summit isn’t nearly as difficult as many fear.

For starters, Alexander’s 2021 cap hit is not guaranteed, so the Saints can release him after this season without any financial penalty (but a big pay cut is much more likely, if he proves he can get healthy and help them win games in 2020). That puts New Orleans right back where it started, with San Francisco being the only team involved in this deal to walk away with any dead money.

There are other moves to be made that can lower that salary cap. If Drew Brees retires as anticipated, the Saints will recoup $13.5 million in 2021. Nearly $27.8 million can be freed up between restructures for Terron Armstead, Cameron Jordan, and Michael Thomas (though trading Thomas, as some have speculated, would result in an additional $1.2 million paid out against the cap).

Ryan Ramczyk and Marshon Lattimore are set to earn a combined $21.2 million while playing on their fifth-year options, so signing either of them (or both of them) to a multiyear contract extension would create plenty of breathing room. Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football explored more potential offseason moves in greater depth, which you can read here.

If the Saints can complete just the salary cap accounting deals mentioned above, they’ll be resting right around $203 million against the 2021 salary cap. That’s still over the projected limit, but it’s significantly more manageable. It serves to illustrate why all of the handwringing over salary cap calculations is so overrated.

So sure, the Saints have plenty of work to do in the months ahead. But they’ve overcome these kind of obstacles before, and there’s reason to believe they can continue to field a competitive team after doing so again. Finding a worthy successor to Brees remains the biggest challenge ahead of them, even moreso than this bean counting.

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Saints still favored to beat Raiders on ‘Monday Night Football’

The New Orleans Saints are still road favorites in their Week 2 game with the Las Vegas Raiders, despite an injury to star WR Michael Thomas

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We’re only hours away from the New Orleans Saints kickoff with the Las Vegas Raiders on “Monday Night Football,” and the Saints remain road favorites to walk away with a win. That comes after the Saints ruled star wide receiver Michael Thomas out for this game with an ankle injury.

The oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook still like the Saints to win, even with Thomas watching from the sidelines. New Orleans is favored by 5.5 points over Las Vegas, with an over/under set at 48.5; that implies a final score somewhere around Saints 28, Raiders 22. Still solid, but it’s a point lower than the projections when Thomas was expected to play.

Injuries have hit both sides. The Raiders are expected to be without their starting and backup right tackles, promoting a backup guard to their place, which is quite a mismatch for All-Pro Cameron Jordan. Jordan will not be joined by his bookend pass rusher Marcus Davenport, which could help create some favorable looks for impressive Raiders running back Josh Jacobs.

And, yeah, the Saints won’t have Thomas. But they should get better protection up front with rookie draft pick Cesar Ruiz making his debut. Maybe the extra second or two he can save Drew Brees here and there will make a real difference.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Saints are 6.5-point road favorites in Week 2 over the Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are not favorites to open their own new home stadium against the visiting New Orleans Saints, favored by nearly a TD.

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Both the New Orleans Saints and the Las Vegas Raiders won their Week 1 debuts over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers, and now they’re on a collision course in Week 2 on Monday Night Football. All eyes will be on the Darth Vader-esque Allegiant Stadium when the Saints help the Raiders open their new home venue.

And the Saints are favored to win this one, unfortunately for the Raiders. The BetMGM Sportsbook oddsmakers have the Saints winning their first game on the road in 2020 by 6.5 points; taken with an over/under of 51.5 points, that suggests a final score in the neighborhood of Saints 29, Raiders 22.

Only two games have a higher over/under right now: a matchup between the winless Atlanta Falcons and Dallas Cowboys (52.5), and a high-profile duel of Lamar Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens against Deshaun Watson’s Houston Texans (52.5).

For context, the Saints offense scored 27 points on a very good Buccaneers defense in Week 1, helped out with Janoris Jenkins’ interception returned for a defensive touchdown. Meanwhile, the Raiders hung 34 points on the Panthers, fueled by Josh Jacobs’ three touchdown runs.

So we may be in for more fireworks in prime time. And that should get fans — and bettors — excited.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Projected contract extensions for big-time Saints 2021 free agents

The New Orleans Saints have the resources to get a jump on contract extensions with key 2021 free agents like Alvin Kamara and Demario Davis

The New Orleans Saints freed up a ton of salary cap space by releasing Larry Warford earlier this month, but so far they’ve only used it to pick up free agents on one-year deals, at near-veteran’s minimum salary.

Names like Margus Hunt, Ty Montgomery, Anthony Chickillo, and James Hurst may not move the needle, but their impact could be felt in training camp later this summer. Having players with their NFL experience rounding out your roster instead of a crowd of undrafted rookies speaks volumes about the quality of this year’s Saints depth chart.

But at some point New Orleans is going to dig deep into their pockets and start planning for the future. That’s what they did last year by getting a jump on looming free agents like Wil Lutz, Cameron Jordan, and Michael Thomas. The Saints correctly identified each of those players as critical pieces to the locker room and rewarded them with new deals well ahead of schedule.

Here are several big names the Saints should consider, with projected contract extensions. Because this new money will be flowing in on top of preexisting deals, the Saints will have the option to restructure current-year cap hits and create more spending-room as they go along. It’s a tactic they’ve used often before.

And with even more lucrative contracts on the way for Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramczyk (who each had their fifth-year options picked up as soon as the Saints were allowed to do so), getting these deals inked now lets the Saints know exactly what they have to work with in the future. It’s like ordering a drink before choosing your steak.

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2021 NFL Draft: Saints projected to add multiple compensatory picks

The analysts at Over The Cap project the New Orleans Saints to receive two compensatory picks in the 2021 NFL Draft.

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The New Orleans Saints have rarely qualified for compensatory draft picks since Sean Payton was hired to take over the team, owing to their always-aggressive approach in free agency to acquire veterans and eliminate roster needs before the draft. But that strategy changed in the 2020 offseason, and the Saints now stand to reap the benefits in 2021.

It’s difficult to pin down an exact process behind the NFL’s allotment for compensatory draft picks, which focuses on average annual salary as well as in-season playing time and postseason accolades like Pro Bowl appearances and All-Pro recognition.

But the analysts at Over The Cap have come closest to matching the NFL’s results, and they project the Saints to add two draft picks to their 2021 haul: third-rounder for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and a sixth-round pick for linebacker A.J. Klein. The Saints canceled out their loss of safety Vonn Bell by adding wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders.

However, the Saints could qualify for another compensatory pick if cornerback Eli Apple signs with another team at a high enough salary. The one-year, $6 million deal he agreed to with the Las Vegas Raiders would have given the Saints another sixth-round pick, but he backed out of negotiations when the Raiders failed to seal the deal. Now back on the market in free agency, it’s uncertain whether Apple will get another offer of that magnitude.

There’s some confusion about safety Malcolm Jenkins, whose 2020 option was not picked up by the Philadelphia Eagles before he signed with the Saints. In the past, that would not have been treated the same as if Philadelphia had cut him outright, but the new collective bargaining agreement may have changed things. For now, the Over The Cap crew isn’t expecting him to factor in. But if Jenkins is counted against the Saints, he would wipe out their sixth-round compensatory pick for Klein.

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What could Drew Brees’ next Saints contract extension look like?

Drew Brees wants to return in 2020, and the New Orleans Saints want him back. But first, they have to agree on a new contract extension.

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Drew Brees intends to play in the 2020 NFL season, which is great news for the New Orleans Saints. Starting Brees at quarterback presents their best opportunity to win another Super Bowl title, but getting both parties to the negotiating table is the easy part. Now that both sides are interested in keeping this relationship together, they must hammer out a contract extension.

It’s gone easier in past years, thanks to the rising salary cap and Brees’ willingness to take team-friendly contracts. His last extension was a two-year, $50 million deal that paid out nearly $10 million below the price Brees could command on the open market; six other passers currently make $30 million or more per year, and the best quarterbacks are earning $35 million each season they suit up. Brees accepted a lower rate to help out the team, but it actually runs deeper than that.

In addition to a depressed salary, Brees also structured his contracts to run year-to-year, rather than tying the Saints to him over four or five years. That acknowledged the possibility that he could fall off a cliff at any time, much like other aging passers did before him (see: Brett Favre and Peyton Manning). While Brees will leave a sizable dead money hit behind once he retires, it won’t set the Saints back for a decade.

But there’s the rub, and the largest hurdle the Saints must overcome in agreeing to a new contract with Brees. Their past contract structures (and subsequent restructures) resulted in a base salary cap hit of $15.9 million in 2020, which reportedly can’t be decreased. That means any new money the Saints guarantee for him — through his 2020 base salary or a signing bonus — will be added on top of that.

In previous years, the Saints could spread out the damage against the salary cap with automatically voided years and prorated signing bonuses. But that’s not an option without a new, ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement. Any future bonuses written into contracts must be accounted for in 2020 this year, which removes some of the Saints’ favorite tools from the toolbox.

So what will Brees’ new contract extension look like? We’ll keep it simple and anticipate an updated model of his last contract, signed back in 2018. That deal paid out $25 million per year, which was 14% of the salary cap at the time. Assuming Brees makes the same demand in 2020, that would be worth about $28 million per season. 54% of that contract was guaranteed at the time, so we’ll suggest the same percentage this time around.

Those qualifiers in mind, here’s what we came up with: two years, $56 million, with $30.24 million in guarantees. That’s a 2020 salary cap hit of $31.02 million, which would require even more creative accounting by the Saints. Four other quarterbacks are currently counting for $30 million or more against the 2020 salary cap:

  • Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams: $36,042,682
  • Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: $33,500,000
  • Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: $31,000,000
  • Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: $31,000,000

Maybe they’ll luck out and Brees will accept an even lower salary than last time, closer to $20 million per year. Whatever the case, this is something the Saints have been planning for, and they’ll be ready to pay up when the time comes.

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