Tag: Projected

List of Saints’ 2024 NFL draft picks in each round

The latest projections are in. Here are the New Orleans Saints’ 2024 NFL draft picks in each round:

The 2024 NFL draft will be here before we know it, and it’s a critical event for the New Orleans Saints. With so many salary cap dollars going towards the team’s aging veterans, it’s vital that the Saints hit on as many picks as possible to replenish the roster with young talent.

And this year, the Saints are expected to receive nine picks — they already own six selections, but they’re anticipating three more as compensatory picks for losing free agents last offseason. Where those picks slot in and whether they even actually transfer is yet to be seen, but we’ll refer to the latest projections from Over The Cap and Tankathon to give you can idea of what the Saints should have to work with in April.

Here’s a quick look at each of their nine picks and and how they acquired each selection:

Saints move inside the 2024 NFL draft’s top-10 picks after Week 13

The Saints moved inside the 2024 NFL draft’s top-10 picks after Week 13. They have higher ambitions, but a lucrative draft pick is a solid silver lining:

There aren’t many silver linings for a 5-7 football team that envisioned itself as a playoff contender, but a lucrative pick in the 2024 NFL draft is one of them. And the New Orleans Saints are currently projected to pick at No. 9 overall after losing to the Detroit Lions.

And they’ll stay there regardless of other games’ results, at least this week. The Saints are tied for the lowest strength of schedule (.367) in the league which gives them an edge in any tiebreakers with other teams.

Here are the Saints’ projected 2024 draft picks, per Tankathon:

  • Round 1, pick 9
  • Round 2, pick 47 (via Denver Broncos)
  • Round 5, pick 144
  • Round 5, pick 168 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, pick 171 (compensatory)
  • Round 5, pick 174 (compensatory)
  • Round 6, pick 189
  • Round 6, pick 209 (via Philadelphia Eagles)
  • Round 7, pick 235 (via Denver Broncos)

If you’re curious, here are the teams slotted in ahead of the Saints through the first eight picks:

  1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers)
  2. New England Patriots
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. Washington Commanders
  5. Chicago Bears
  6. New York Giants
  7. New York Jets
  8. Tennessee Titans

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Saints are knocking on the door of another top-10 pick in the NFL draft

Dennis Allen’s Saints are knocking on the door of another top-10 pick in the NFL draft. But if this trend continues, will he be around to make that selection?

Yikes. A lot has changed for the New Orleans Saints over the last year, but not enough to change where they’re projecting to pick in the upcoming NFL draft. After they sent the No. 10 overall selection to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023, the Saints are currently on track to pick at No. 11 overall in the 2024 draft. More losses for Dennis Allen’s team will only push that selection higher.

On paper, the Saints should easily climb out of this hole and put more of their attention on the playoffs than the next draft cycle. They’ve got the league’s easiest schedule ahead of them and many of their upcoming opponents are missing key players. Allen has the coaching staff and quarterback he wanted in place. So why do they keep losing games?

You have wonder if Allen will be around to make the pick for the Saints in 2024 if it ends up being as high as current standings have it (if not higher inside the top 10). General manager Mickey Loomis picked Allen as his head coach over other candidates because he believed Allen had the best chances of keeping their core together and remaining a playoff team.

Instead, they’re on the outside looking in on the NFC playoff standings, and this team has hemorrhaged core players in free agency like Terron Armstead, Marcus Williams, and David Onyemata, among others. Allen has not met expectations through his first 23 games as their head coach. What if he never does?

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This projected 2023 stat line for Derek Carr would be a big disappointment

This projected 2023 stat line for Derek Carr would be a big disappointment. It has him averaging the second-fewest passing yards per game of his pro career:

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What are the expectations for Derek Carr in 2023? Obviously the most important goal is for him to lead the New Orleans Saints back to the playoffs and end their two-year postseason drought, but what about his individual performance?

Let’s start by checking in on this projection from Bleacher Report’s Alex Kay, who sees Carr as a big upgrade over New Orleans’ past options at quarterback (at least since Drew Brees hung up his cleats). But it might be too little, too late for Carr:

The New Orleans Saints have their best quarterback since Drew Brees thanks to their offseason signing of Derek Carr. While Carr fell out of favor with the Las Vegas Raiders at the tail-end of a disappointing campaign last year, he could experience a resurgence in the Big Easy.

With a decent group of wideouts that includes 2022 first-round pick Chris Olave and a once-elite veteran in Michael Thomas—who is trying to prove he has something left in the tank himself—Carr could put up some surprisingly decent numbers for the Saints.

Projection: 68 percent completion rate, 3,901 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns; 13 interceptions, 30 carries, 118 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.

It would help take the edge off if Carr guides the Saints to the postseason (something, it’s worth noting, he only did once in nine years with the Raiders), but that stat line would be a major disappointment with or without a playoff berth.

An average of 229.4 passing yards per game would be the second-lowest number in Carr’s pro career. A 68% completion percentage lines up with his recent performances with someone better than Josh McDaniels calling plays, and it’s worth noting he’s only thrown 30-plus touchdown passes once (in 2015). Carr has thrown 14 interceptions in each of the last two seasons, so that’s a comparable total, too.

As has been observed at other outlets, Carr can’t just be the same guy he was with the Raiders. He needs to elevate his play and that of those around him to justify the Saints’ decision to make him the face of their franchise. If he’s just turning in more of the same that got him run out of town in Las Vegas, fans in New Orleans shouldn’t be happy. Hopefully projections like this one end up being the floor, not the ceiling, for him in 2023.

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Saints projected to receive multiple compensatory picks in 2024 draft

After enduring a lot of losses in free agency, the New Orleans Saints are projected to receive multiple compensatory picks in the 2024 draft:

The New Orleans Saints are projected to receive multiple compensatory picks in the 2024 draft after enduring a lot of losses in free agency. They’ve lost prominent players like defensive linemen David Onyemata (Atlanta Falcons), Marcus Davenport (Minnesota Vikings), Shy Tuttle (Carolina Panthers), and Kentavius Street (Philadelphia Eagles); linebacker Kaden Elliss (Falcons), safety Justin Evans (Eagles), offensive tackle Ethan Greenidge (Falcons), and wide receivers Marquez Callaway (Denver Broncos) and Deonte Harty (Buffalo Bills) are also playing elsewhere. So is quarterback Andy Dalton (Panthers).

Compare that to a surprisingly brief number of high-dollar new additions: defensive linemen Nathan Shepherd (New York Jets) and Khalen Saunders (Kansas City Chiefs), plus running back Jamaal Williams (Detroit Lions). The comp picks formula counts additions against subtractions in free agency, then awards future selections based on the exchange in value (which is determined by how much money is tied up in contracts and how many snaps players see on the field, among other factors). Players who sign at the veteran’s minimum like defensive backs Johnathan Abram, Lonnie Johnson Jr., Ugo Amadi, wide receiver Bryan Edwards, and right tackle Storm Norton don’t count.

So where do the Saints stand? NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein projects the Saints to receive two fourth-rounders and a sixth-round comp pick in 2024, writing:

Some of the signings/departures cancel each other out here, but the Saints are likely to receive three picks, including fourth-rounders for Davenport and Onyemata.

Teams are capped at four compensatory picks, so they may have qualified for another late-round comp pick had they chosen to not sign either Shepherd, Saunders, or Williams. But it probably would have only been a sixth- or seventh-round selection. It’s worth more to have those veterans on the team than to have another late-round pick a year from now.

We’ve got a while to wait until these comp picks are confirmed. The NFL Management Council typically announces them in early March, before the start of that year’s free agency signing period. But if these projections are accurate (Zierlein’s expected haul for the Saints matches what’s being estimated by Over The Cap’s Nick Korte), here’s what the Saints will be working with in the 2024 draft:

  • Round 1
  • Round 2 (via Denver Broncos)
  • Round 4 (compensatory for Marcus Davenport)
  • Round 4 (compensatory for David Onyemata)
  • Round 5
  • Round 6
  • Round 6 (via Philadelphia Eagles or Tennessee Titans)
  • Round 6 (compensatory for Kaden Elliss)

New Orleans has already traded several of their 2024 picks. They sent a third rounder back to Denver in the Sean Payton trade and spent a fourth rounder to get another pick in the 2023 draft from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Their seventh-round selection belongs to the Houston Texans as part of the trade that brought Mark Ingram II back to New Orleans in 2021. The Saints could move more picks to acquire veterans between now and the NFL trade deadline in November, but it’s worth noting those compensatory picks cannot be included until they’re actually awarded in March 2023.

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Saints make a stunning pick in Peter Schrager’s updated 2023 mock draft

The Saints made a stunning pick in Peter Schrager’s updated 2023 mock draft, selecting Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta:

Well that’s something. NFL Network’s Peter Schrager caught some heat for his first 2023 mock draft, so he’s hoping his follow-up is better received. Schrager is one of the better-connected national reporters, and after speaking with his sources around the league he settled on a new name for New Orleans Saints to monitor in the hours leading up to the draft: former Iowa Hawkeyes tight end Sam LaPorta.

“A player who has picked up a lot more juice and buzz of late,” Schrager wrote of LaPorta. “LaPorta and Luke Musgrave are two tight ends who could end up going near the end of the first round.”

LaPorta is the third tight end Schrager sees being picked in the first round, trailing Dalton Kincaid (Utah) to the Washington Commanders at No. 16 and Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) to the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 21. The 6-foot-3, 245 pounder has elite movement skills including a rare 4.59-second time in the 40-yard dash and impressive 6.91-second time in the three-cone drill, making for a 9.01 Relative AThletic Score.

He led the Hawkeyes in either receiving yards or receptions in each of the last three years while logging more than 1,000 snaps as a blocker, though he’ll need to put in work in the weight room to be an asset in that phase against NFL competition. It’s worth noting that his production was limited by the nation’s worst offense Iowa has run under nepotism-hire Brian Ferentz; on the rare occasions LaPorta was asked to run real routes and handle NFL-quality assignments, he excelled.

Unfortunately, that pullaway speed doesn’t show up often enough on game tape. He also wasn’t as effective on contested catches as you’d like him to be, dropping three times as many passes (14) as touchdown receptions (5). Like many tight ends coming out of school, LaPorta is still very much a work in progress. With Juwan Johnson locking down the receiving tight end role and Adam Trautman penciled in as the blocking specialist, it’s tough to see how LaPorta would get on the field as a rookie in New Orleans.

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ESPN projects 2023 stats for Saints players: What is predicted for Derek Carr?

ESPN projects 2023 stats for New Orleans Saints players: What is predicted for Derek Carr and his supporting cast?

It’s really, really difficult to predict how a team’s season is going to play out. Especially months in advance, before pricey free agent additions have even hit the field and the rookie class has been drafted.

But ESPN’s Mike Clay is a very well-regarded prognosticator. He maintains a model of individual stats for fantasy football each season, and he’s looking very lukewarm on the New Orleans Saints. He’s predicting a modest performance from Derek Carr and his supporting cast, and a respectable showing from the Saints defense (despite all the talent they’ve lost this spring).

Let’s break down his projections for each position group two weeks out from the 2023 NFL draft:

ESPN projects Michael Mayer as most likely pick for Saints at No. 29

An ESPN analytical model projects Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer as the most likely pick for the New Orleans Saints at No. 29 in the 2023 draft:

Everyone seems to have a take on the 2023 NFL draft, and now the computers are getting involved. According to this ESPN analytical model, the likeliest pick for the New Orleans Saints at No. 29 is Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer. Here is how ESPN describes its model:

The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc, expert mock drafts, and team needs along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.

Mayer would make a lot of sense for the Saints, even if he doesn’t boast an elite Relative Athletic Score and would expect Juwan Johnson to remain ahead of him on the depth chart. He’s one of the best blocking tight ends in this draft class with experience handling a wide variety of assignments, but he’s also a serious receiving threat who posted some of college football’s best numbers on contested catches. He could help the Saints in multiple phases offensively.

ESPN’s model approximates a 48% chance of Mayer being available when the Saints are on the clock, and a 7% chance that New Orleans would actually pick him. But he isn’t their only option. Here are the other names to watch according to ESPN’s mathematicians:

Saints to work out LSU defensive tackle prospect Jaquelin Roy

Saints to work out former LSU defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy, projected to be a third- or fourth-round prospect in the 2023 NFL draft:

Jaquelin Roy is in high demand, and the New Orleans Saints will be the next team to take a close look at him. The former LSU Tigers defensive tackle has scheduled a private workout with the Saints after meeting with the Dallas Cowboys, reports NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo, having previously met with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles.

Roy is projected to be picked in the third or fourth round of this year’s NFL draft, having played 1,439 snaps for LSU over 31 games. He’s strong and disruptive in run defense (with 13.5 career tackles for loss) while consistently generating pressure on passing downs, which is impressive given he plays more of a nose tackle role lining up over the A gap. He also tips the scales at 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds, with 32.7-inch arms, all well above the averages the Saints look for at defensive tackle.

The Saints could use more help at the position after moving on from three of their top four players (David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, and Kentavius Street) this offseason. Despite having signed free agents Nathan Shepherd and Khalen Saunders while retaining Malcolm Roach, they like to run four- or five-deep along the interior, and Roy could be a good get.

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The Athletic’s latest NFL mock draft brings the Saints a mold-breaking defensive tackle

The Athletic’s latest NFL mock draft brings the Saints a mold-breaking defensive tackle in Pitt Panthers standout Calijah Kancey:

How many mock draft writers does it take to figure out what the New Orleans Saints are going to do in April’s 2023 NFL draft? The Athletic’s Diante Lee and Nate Tice collaborated on a first-round mock draft, which brought an unconventional (if wise) pick to the Saints in Pitt Panthers defensive tackle Calijah Kancey. Tice wrote of the match:

The Saints could go in several directions with this pick. But with several interior defensive linemen leaving in free agency, they need reinforcements. Enter the undersized but disruptive Kancey. Kancey is a different type of player than what the Saints have trotted out up front in recent years, but his gap-shooting style will fit perfectly in Dennis Allen’s preferred four-down fronts.

Kancey is a heck of player — he bagged 34.5 tackles for loss and 16 sacks for Pitt, with Pro Football Focus charting crediting him with 111 pressures over three years and 33 games. He’s very disruptive up front and beats opponents with a lightning-fast first step much like Sheldon Rankins once did in New Orleans.

But he’s undersized by the Saints’ strict standards at 6-foot-1 and just 281 pounds, with 30.625-inch arms. Here’s how that compares to some other Saints defensive tackles (past and present) coming out of college:

  • Khalen Saunders: 6-foot-0, 324 pounds, 32.25-inch arms
  • Nathan Shepherd: 6-foot-3, 315 pounds, 32.375-inch arms
  • Albert Huggins: 6-foot-2, 305 pounds, 33.5-inch arms
  • David Onyemata: 6-foot-3, 300 pounds, 33.25-inch arms
  • Malcolm Roach: 6-foot-2, 297 pounds, 31.875-inch arms
  • Prince Emili: 6-foot-0, 295 pounds, 32.625-inch arms
  • Shy Tuttle: 6-foot-2, 290 pounds, 33.375-inch arms
  • Kentavius Street: 6-foot-2, 280 pounds, 32.875-inch arms

That’s an average size of 6-foot-1.75 and 300.75 pounds, with arms of 32.75 inches — none of which are standards Kancey makes. The Saints have shown us that they’ll make exceptions for players in the right situation, as with Street, but he played on a veteran’s minimum salary last year. Committing a first round draft pick to Kancey might not be a risk that Dennis Allen is willing to take.

The Saints head coach has spoken often about a desire to want to “play a big man’s game” in the trenches by emphasizing size and length, which aren’t qualities Kancey brings to the table. He might reach the threshold for height or weight, but his comparatively-short arms could be a deal-breaker when taken with those other physical shortcomings.

But, hey: he’s a special talent with rare athletic gifts, able to knife past blockers before they can react and chase down runners in the open field. Maybe Kancey shows the Saints enough in the weeks ahead to convince Allen to make a mold-breaking selection in the first round while addressing his team’s top draft need. Stranger things have happened, right?

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