The Athletic’s Austin Mock crunched the numbers to project this year’s preseason top 25 college football rankings, and Texas A&M clocked in high on the list.
Why should fans wait for college football’s preseason top 25 rankings in mere months when we can crunch the numbers and have them in June?
The Athletic’s Austin Mock leveraged his advanced statistical models and simulations to project this year’s preseason top 25 rankings. It’s imperative to note that these aren’t like the rankings you’ll see from the AP or coaches poll.
As Mock mentions in the piece, these data-driven rankings are compiled using these parameters:
“My model takes in play-by-play data from every game but also factors in returning production, recruiting rankings, and transfers. For now, it relies on projections, but as the season starts, those games will become a more important factor in the formula.”
After crunching the numbers, Texas A&M clocked in at No. 15 in Mock’s preseason rankings. That puts them ahead of SEC counterparts Ole Miss (16th), Auburn (20th), Missouri (22nd), and Kentucky (25th). Only Georgia (1st), Alabama (2nd), LSU (6th), and Tennessee (7th) ranked above the Maroon and White.
Here’s what the Mock had to say regarding the Aggie’s No. 15 ranking:
“Admittedly, I don’t love having Texas A&M this high but they’re going to have one of the better defenses in college football and that’s going to raise your floor in my model. Yes, the 5-7 record in 2022 doesn’t give you much confidence but they did manage to go 2-5 in one-score games. I don’t think they’re likely to win a lot of games because of how tough the SEC is but 7-8 wins on their schedule is a team that’s firmly among the 20 of the best in the country.”
A&M’s defensive potential speaks for itself after ranking top 25 in points allowed last season, and the offense should take a massive leap with Bobby Petrino bringing some much-needed creativity and ingenuity to the playbook.
Mock’s point about the gauntlet that is the SEC schedule is warranted, but it’s essential to add some context there as well.
A&M does go on the road to play LSU, but they’re coming off a 2022 season finale upset over the Tigers, so they’ve proven up to the challenge against Brian Kelly’s unit. Ole Miss at The Vaught will be formidable, and yet Lane Kiffin’s squad managed to squeak by with just a three-point win over the Aggies last season, which coincided with Conner Weigman’s second career game (28-44, 338 yards, four touchdowns, 0 interceptions).
And yes, the Crimson Tide are as tough as they come but don’t forget that they need to come to Kyle Field for this year’s bout, which has proven to be among the college football’s most raucous environments, and a location liable for big upsets.
Casual fans may scoff at these ranks, but Aggies fans know that the Maroon and White have the talent and capability to justify the data with wins on the gridiron.
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