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Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker square off in a lightweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 12 – also known as UFC Fight Night 174 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on EPoiSPN/ESPN+.
Poirier (25-6) enters as the favorite in this bout despite the fact he faces a three-inch disadvantage in both height and reach. The southpaw does dominate in the other categories, particularly his ability for the takedown. He holds a 1.55 to 0.43 takedown-average advantage, while also leading 37.88 to 28.57 in takedown accuracy and 1.18 to 0.33 in submission average. In other words, Poirier will be looking to get to the ground and pound early and often. However, he can more than handle himself with aplomb when going toe-to-toe, too, holding a 49.08 to 45.85 significant strikes accuracy-percentage advantage. Poirier is coming off a loss, but that was a setback against Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight strap at UFC 242. He has been idle since that Round 3 submission loss Sept. 7, 2019. Keep in mind, five of his past six have finished inside the distance.
Hooker (20-8) posted a split-decision win in the main event Feb. 22 against Paul Felder, for his 10th victory at the UFC level. Hooker is on a 3-0 heater, including a KO/TKO victory over James Vick last July 20. Five of Hooker’s past eight events have ended with a KO/TKO, including four wins. He is also 2-0 at the UFC level with wins by submission, while going 7-2 in his pro career. The Kiwi can win fights a number of ways, and doesn’t like to go very long into the night. Six of his previous eight bouts have finished inside the distance.
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Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 26 at 6:10 a.m. ET.
Poirier (-228) is a bit of a heavy favorite, but rightly so. While Hooker (+185) is 3-0 across his past three bouts, and has the ability to win in a number of ways, Poirier is the more well-rounded fighter. His punching ability is tremendous – he has landed seven knockdowns, tied for fourth in the lightweight division. He has an 0.85 knockdown average per 15 minutes, third in the division. Poirier is also second among active lightweights with 6.51 significant strikes landed per minute, while possessing a 1.77 striking differential over his opponents. Taking POIRIER BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-106) on the 5-way line at near even-money is the way to go.
I think Hooker has the ability to hang around and make Poirier work deep into the night for this win, although ultimately the favorite wins it inside the distance. Still, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-106) is the way to go. For a small-unit wager, I’d play POIRIER TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1000) and/or POIRIER TO WIN IN ROUND 4 (+1400). If you bet both and he wins in either of those rounds, you’re cashing big.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Poirier (-228) to win on the 2-way line returns a profit of just $4.39. A $10 wager on Poirier (-106) to win by submission, or OVER 2.5 total rounds (-106), results in a return of $9.43. Selecting Poirier (+1000) to win in Round 3 returns a profit of $100 on a $10 bet, while a win in Round 4 by Poirier (+1400) would fetch a profit of $140 on $10 bet.
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