Tag: point differential

Saints’ defense putting together some of their worst performances since 2015

The Saints defense has done well in the red zone recently, but they rank 30th in this key defensive statistic. It’s their worst showing since 2015:

The New Orleans Saints defense has been extremely hit or miss this season, as early on they were getting gashed on many different types of plays and struggled to maintain any resemblance of protection against the run. However, in recent weeks they have stepped up in not allowing points, but still giving up an obscene amount of yards.

This has been one of the killing points of the Saints’ defense this season, as they allow significant time of possession defensively due to their struggles against the run game and against third down scenarios.

As of the end of Week 15, the Saints rank 30th in yards allowed this season, behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars (5,549) and Carolina Panthers (5,407), where the Saints have given up 5,272. However, the intriguing part of this comes when you look at the point differential of these teams, where the Jaguars have a -114 and the Panthers have a -171, while the Saints have only a -3, showing how effective they are in the red zone.

Unfortunately, yards do matter however, especially when it comes to time of possession which the Washington Commanders dominated in the most recent game, where they held the ball for a whopping 40 minutes and 50 seconds to the Saints’ 19 minutes and 10 seconds.

Who knows if this really has had a major impact overall, as the offense has been a key factor in why the Saints have been such a net negative team this season. But regardless, it is eye popping, considering the Saints have not ranked this low in the yards allowed category since 2015.

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Pittsburgh ranks fourth-best in point differential through 8 weeks

The 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers are looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, boasting the fourth-best point differential through 8 weeks.

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ red-hot start continues to pick up steam. Not only does the AFC North currently run through the Steel City, but the team is also competing with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs for the top spot in the AFC conference. 

While the 6-2 Steelers are tied with the 6-2 Bills, and just one and a half games behind Kansas City, Pittsburgh actually holds the second-best point differential in the AFC and the fourth-best among all 32 NFL teams. 

So far in 2024, through eight weeks of football, the Steelers have scored 187 points while allowing only 119 points against them. This point differential of 68 trails only the NFC’s Washington Commanders with 69, the AFC’s Buffalo Bills with 84, and the NFC’s Detroit Lions with a staggering 100-point differential. 

Pittsburgh’s differential shows the NFL world that their balanced strength on both sides of the ball is not to be underestimated. With the trade deadline approaching, the Steelers would be wise to strengthen their roster further and prepare for a potentially deep playoff run. 

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Dennis Allen has made the Saints ugly outliers in this key stat

Since they hired Dennis Allen as head coach, the Saints are the only NFL team to score more points than they allow, but finish with a losing record:

The New Orleans Saints’ start to the 2024 season looked exceptionally good, as they scored 91 points and had a +62 point differential through two weeks, which is outstanding. The difference in points scored and points allowed is one of the NFL’s most important stats and indicators of success.

But now after Week 6 has concluded, they sit at 2-4 with 167 total points (19 PPG during that span of four weeks) and are down to a +20 point differential. This has somewhat been the case with Dennis Allen and his teams over the course of his two prior seasons with the Saints.

Since Allen was hired in 2022, they are the only team with a positive point differential but also a losing record. During that span they have a +80 point differential and an 18-22 record. Additionally, of the 13 teams with a positive point differential during that span, 12 made the playoffs at least once, and eight made it twice, with the Saints being the only team to miss out.

This indicates that the Saints win big when they win and lose small when they lose, but it also means they lose the large majority of their games in close matchups, which indicates a failure to close out games in the late stages. That has certainly been one of the biggest criticisms of this Saints team ever since Sean Payton left, and more importantly, Drew Brees.

49ers point differentials through 5 weeks are insane

These #49ers point differential numbers are a good illustrator of how dominant they’ve been.

The 49ers are one of two 5-0 teams remaining after Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. For San Francisco the five wins to begin the year are impressive, but it’s how they’ve gone about manufacturing those victories that’s been particularly staggering.

They’ve posted 33.4 points per game, and they’ve allowed only 13.6 points per game. San Francisco has eclipsed the 30-point mark in all five contests, and the only team to cross the 20-point threshold on them was the Los Angeles Rams who had 23 in Week 2.

With five games down the 49ers are leading the NFL in point differential at a +99. Here’s what the top-five looks like:

1. 49ers, +99
2. Bills, +79
3. Cowboys, +51
4. Chiefs, +48
5. Dolphins, +46

A quick deep dive into San Francisco’s first and second half splits provides a really good illustration of how consistently dominant they’ve been. Here’s a redone version of the point differential leaderboard with the 49ers of the first half and 49ers of the second half included:

1. 49ers, +99
2. Bills, +79
3. Cowboys, +51
4. 49ers in the second half, +50
5. 49ers in the first half, +49
6. Chiefs +48

That’s a remarkable level of play for a team to keep up across five weeks. And they’ve reached those numbers without any hugely lopsided performance. It’s just been a consistent, methodical domination in every quarter and every half.

At some point these numbers are likely to come back down to Earth a little bit, but it’s hard to illustrate how good the 49ers’ first five games have been than via those point differential numbers.

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Vikings finish unique season with an NFL record

The Vikings set a record that they didn’t want to break

The 2022 rendition of the Minnesota Vikings will be one of the weirdest teams in the history of the National Football League. They won 13 of their possible 17 games and won an NFL record 11 one-score games.

One record they weren’t expecting to claim was being the first team to win 13 games and have a negative point differential. The Vikings have scored 424 points and allowed 427 for a difference of -3.

This fact is one of the reasons why the Vikings aren’t viewed highly across the league and why the sportsbooks have the Vikings viewed as poorly as they have been.

What is really fascinating is the Vikings’ four losses. They have lost by 17, 37, 11, and 24 points this season. They didn’t lose one game close this season whereas 11 of their wins were close.

What advantage does that give the Vikings as they head into the playoffs? There is no situation they can run into that would phase them.

Lions edge into positive point differential for the season in win over Vikings

Detroit hadn’t had a positive point differential at any point in any season since 2019

Sunday’s impressive 34-23 win over the Minnesota Vikings elevated the Detroit Lions to a 6-7 record. The Week 14 win also pushed Detroit’s season point differential (points scored vs. points allowed) into the positive. Detroit is now a plus-2 on the season.

That might not seem like something to brag about, but it’s been more than a little while since Detroit had a positive point differential this late in a season. Five years, to be exact.

The last time the Lions were in the black on points in December was 2017. A 20-10 win over the Buccaneers in Week 15 of Jim Caldwell’s final season as head coach lifted Detroit into a positive point differential that year, a status they maintained over the final two weeks.

It’s been a long time since the Lions were positive in points scored versus points allowed at any point in a year. The last time Detroit held that status was entering Week 6 of the 2019 season. A 42-30 loss to the Vikings dropped those Lions into the red. They haven’t been out of the hole since, until Sunday.

The 9-point win over Minnesota also elevated the Lions to being the only NFC North team with a positive point differential. The Vikings are now minus-1 on the season — even with their 10-3 overall record. Detroit is plus-53 in the last six weeks.

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Vikings reach another NFL first that nobody wants to claim

The Vikings somehow have a negative point differential

The Minnesota Vikings have another NFL record that they have no interest in holding as they became the first team in NFL history to have a negative point differential with at least 8 wins in their first 10 games.

As Seifert mentions, the number speaks volumes about how close the Vikings have been playing their opponents this season. On the other side of the coin, it amplifies how poorly they have played in their losses.

The Vikings have found themselves on the losing end just twice this season but it was to two top-five teams by a combined 54 points. Both the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys had excellent game plans to beat the Minnesota Vikings and they executed them to perfection.

The Vikings have a game against the New England Patriots on Thursday night to rectify this porous number.

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Vikings point differential displays a stark difference

The Vikings have seen some improvement over last year

The Minnesota Vikings have been quite good this season in amassing a 7-1 record. One element that the Vikings have been good in is point differential.

The Vikings have a positive differential this season in three of the four quarters and, as expected, they have been bad in the third quarter.

These numbers reflect how the Vikings have been so far this season. They have been atrocious in the third quarter but rebounding in the fourth more often than not. The first half success has been well documented, especially against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.

Compared to last year, the discrepancies are different. Here are the point differential totals from the 2021 Vikings

  • 1st quarter: +34
  • 2nd quarter: -30
  • 3rd quarter: +10
  • 4th quarter: -14

Most of that can be attributed to the Vikings allowing 128 points after the two minute warning, which was also where the Vikings saw their only two negative discrepancies.

If the Vikings can figure out their third quarter woes, they could potentially unlock even more success.

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Falcons ranked among NFL’s worst in point differential last season

In 2021, the Falcons went 7-10 with a point differential of -147. Check out where all 32 teams ranked in point differential last season.

In the NFL, winning games is by far the most important factor when evaluating the success or failure of a team, however, win/loss totals rarely tell the full story.

For example, the Atlanta Falcons went 7-10 last season but had one of the worst point differentials in the entire NFL. The Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions had better point differentials than the Falcons, yet all three finished with worse overall records.

Here’s a look at each team’s point differential in 2021.

2020 Browns negative point differential due to “garbage time” play

The Cleveland Browns had a winning record but a negative point differential. New data looks to explain why.

The 2020 Cleveland Browns season was a roaring success in many ways…

  • Winning record
  • Playoff appearance
  • Playoff victory
  • Establishing a culture
  • “Franchise QB” in place

… and many others.

For the more pessimistic (some would say realistic) there has been one concerning number that keeps popping up: point differential.

The Browns were negative 11 in point differential in 2020. The Browns were the only winning team with a negative point differential. Two teams with .500 records and one with a losing record put up a positive point differential on the season. The Browns were only three points better than the 6 – 10 San Francisco 49ers in 2020.

Needless to say, the Browns were the only playoff team with a negative point differential.

Point differential is one way to look at how good a team was overall. Did they get lucky in some close games? Did they barely beat bad teams but get blown out by good teams? In a lot of ways, point differential can help understand if a team’s record was based on their opponents or their own quality.

The Browns -11 presents concerns that their 11 wins were not based on the quality of their team.

New information put together by Anthony Reinhard argues that the Browns differential was more due to opponents scoring when a game was out of reach:

 

If the Browns had returned the same team as last year, the point differential may have been a bit concerning. Instead, the Browns attacked their needs on defense while adding speed to the offense.

The 2021 Browns should be far different than the 2020 Browns, in a good way. Hopefully that presents itself in the point differential as well.