Here’s a sentence no one expected to read a month ago: The Jets have a shot at the NFL postseason.

It’s a slim shot – FiveThirtyEight.com says they have less than a 1 percent chance as of Week 12 – but its better than being mathematically eliminated. 

With five games left, the Jets could theoretically finish the season 9-7– an idea that seemed ludicrous when the Jets dropped to 1-7 after a devasting loss to the Dolphins on Nov. 3. But it will take a lot of work for the Jets to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

Not only must New York win all five of its remaining games – including games against the Ravens, Steelers and Bills to end the season – but the Jets will need the six teams ahead of them in the playoff hunt to lose in strategic ways to catapult Gang Green into the final wild card spot (assuming the Bills don’t implode down the stretch and fail to grab the first spot).

Though the Jets are technically only two games out of the postseason after Week 12, the Steelers, Colts, Titans and Raiders are all tied at 6-5 for the eighth-seed in the AFC ahead of the Jets. The Browns (5-6) and Jaguars (4-7) are also ahead of the Jets in the standings because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, and the Chargers (4-7) are also in the hunt.

Basically, even if the Jets win out and finish 9-7, they aren’t a lock for the playoffs.

First, the Jets will need all the wild card hunting teams to finish with a 9-7 or worse record. If any team finishes with at least 10 wins, the Jets are out. 

Next, the Jets would need the Browns and Jaguars to both finish worse than 9-7 since they both beat the Jets this season and would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Things only get more complicated from there.

If the Jets somehow finish ahead of the Jaguars and Browns, they’ll also need all the teams in the hunt to lose as many AFC games as possible if they finish with the same record as the Jets, since conference wins are the second tiebreaker for teams who haven’t played each other. By season’s end, that’ll only apply to the Colts and Titans since the Jets play the Steelers in Week 16. Obviously, the Jets need to win that match against the Steelers to even make the playoffs, and therefore would win the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record.

The most conference wins the Jets can finish with is six, while the Colts already have five and the Titans have four. If the Jets and Colts finish with identical records and conference records, the Jets would actually win the common games tiebreaker. The Titans, then, can’t finish with more than five conference wins.

There are too many games left on the schedule to break down every possible scenario, but the Jets will be hoping the teams that they lost to earlier in the season – the Browns and Jaguars  – lose as many games as possible, and every other team in the hunt loses either common games with the Jets or conference games.

Some of these teams actually play each other, which is where things get even weirder. 

For example, it would be advantageous for the Browns to lose to the Steelers, another team tying for a playoff spot, so long as both teams continue to lose down the stretch and the Jets beat the Steelers in Week 16. It’s the opposite situation for a team like the Raiders, who the Jets need to beat another playoff-hunting team like the Titans, so long as the Raiders don’t finish with a record better than 9-7.

This all boils down to one thing: There are almost too many scenarios where the Jets would or wouldn’t make the playoffs to count. The only thing the team can and should focus on is the one thing they can control – winning games.

New York needs to win out, and it will have a great shot the next two weeks against the winless Bengals in Week 13 and the lowly Dolphins in Week 14. It gets much harder after that, though, as the Jets face the mighty Ravens in Week 16 on Thursday Night Football followed by the Steelers and Bills to close out the year.

The Ravens game will determine the Jets’ true ability to both make and compete in the postseason. Right now, the idea of the Jets making the playoffs is a joke. Everyone laughed when Sam Darnold mentioned the Jets playoff hopes following their win over the Giants, and it’s still a longshot two wins later. But if they beat one of the best teams in the league on the road in primetime, the Jets can finally stake their claim to true competency.

Can the Jets make the playoffs? The math certainly allows it. But will the Jets make the playoffs? That’s only something the team and the football gods can answer with a little over a month to play in the 2019 season.