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The Houston Astros (55-52) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (55-52) to Minute Maid Park Wednesday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pirates lead 2-0, beating the Astros 6-2 Tuesday and 5-3 Monday.
The Pirates have won 3 straight games, scoring at least 5 in each of those. Pittsburgh has been much better on the road as of late, winning 7 of their last 9 away games. It is 29-26 on the road this season 59-48 against the spread (ATS). The Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
The Astros have lost 3 in a row, scoring 3 or fewer runs in each. That streak comes on the back of a 3-game winning streak, including 2 wins against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Houston, which sits 2nd in the AL West, is 56-51 ATS, yet failed to cover 4 in a row.
Pirates at Astros projected starters
RHP Jake Woodford vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Woodford (0-2, 10.80 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 2.40 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 8 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 7 R, 10 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 14-2 home loss to the Boston Red Sox on June 6
- 2023 away splits (hasn’t pitched on the road in 2024): 0-1, 4.91 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.53 WHIP, 2 HR, 6.4 K/9 in 5 appearances (4 starts)
- Career vs. Astros: 0-0, 15.43 ERA (2 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 2.57 WHIP, 3.9 K/9 in 1 appearance
Valdez (9-5, 3.43 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 110 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 5-0 home win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
- 2024 home splits: 5-2, 3.00 ERA (57 IP, 19 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 6 HR, 8.7 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-1, 7.20 ERA (10 IP, 8 ER), 1.70 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Astros -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-120) | Astros -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)
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Pirates at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Pirates 3
Moneyline
PASS.
The Astros are a sizable favorite, and they are too expensive to take on the moneyline Wednesday. The Pirates are also too risky given the disadvantage in pitching to start the game. Avoid this play.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ASTROS -1.5 (+100).
The Astros have a talented team and have played well at home for the bulk of the season. While they have failed to cover in 4 straight games, they have covered in 6 straight Valdez starts. Houston has allowed just 3 runs in his last 3 starts.
The Pirates have allowed 21 runs through Woodford’s 2 starts this season and have lost both of his starts by at least 5 runs. Given that pitching disadvantage, despite recent team trends, still take the home side and back ASTROS +1.5 (+100).
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Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-106).
Both offenses have been clicking as of late.
The Astros have scored at least 5 runs in 3 of their last 6 games and have gone Over in 4 of their last 7. Houston has allowed at least 5 runs in 4 straight games as well, so while Valdez has been strong, it still could give up multiple runs.
The Pirates have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 and are clicking offensively, scoring at least 5 in all 4. Given Woodford’s weaknesses, expect Pittsburgh to allow numerous runs as well.
Take OVER 8.5 (-106).
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